200911.23
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Creating Jobs

The WSJ has a story about the Obama administration’s efforts to create jobs: Hamstrung by the nation’s $1.4 trillion deficit and his pledge not to raise taxes on middle-class Americans, Mr. Obama is keen to avoid any measures suggestive of a second, big-ticket stimulus. With about half of the February stimulus spending spoken for, the…

200911.22
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Nattering Nabobs

One of the most interesting debates in economic and investing circles today concerns the mental state of investors. Are they overly optimistic about the state of the economy, buying stocks with no regard for the risks? Or are they still so shell shocked that they’re willing to pay Uncle Sam to hold their money in T Bills? Stocks…

200911.19
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The Wisdom of Crowds

From Rasmussen: As the policy debate has unfolded in Washington this year, voters have consistently believed that tax cuts would do more than increased government spending to stimulate the economy and create jobs. Now that the nation’s unemployment rate has reached 10.2%, voters continue to hold that view. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey…

200911.19
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Soc Gen Worst Case Scenario

Societe Generale has two recent reports that are gaining them some publicity for their pessimistic view of the world economy. The first report is literally titled Worst Case Scenario and lays out the Bear Case in pretty stark terms (via the Telegraph): In a report entitled “Worst-case debt scenario”, the bank’s asset team said state…

200911.16
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Bernanke Speech

Ben Bernanke spoke to the Economic Club of New York today. The full text of the speech can be found here, but I’d like to highlight the last two paragraphs: The outlook for inflation is also subject to a number of crosscurrents. Many factors affect inflation, including slack in resource utilization, inflation expectations, exchange rates, and…

200911.15
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Bubbles

Fredric Mishkin, former Fed governor, last week opined that all bubbles are not created equal, that only the credit variety are really damaging to the economy. The other kind of bubble – the internet, irrational exuberance variety – isn’t so bad and doesn’t do the sort of damage that the credit driven, real estate variety does. I suppose…

200911.12
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Update – Global Opportunities – 11/12

The Global Opportunities model portfolio has recently been updated. Changes to the model are: Buy Baker Hughes BHI      Raise from 0.0% to 1.96%  Sell Toyota Motors TM      Entire Position For the complete list of holdings, or for the breakdown of the model portfolio’s asset allocation, as well as its track record, please refer to the Global Opportunities model page.

200911.11
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Geithner Affirms Strong Dollar Policy; Yuan to Resume Rise Against the Dollar

If the headline seems a bit contradictory you obviously haven’t attended the US School of Treasury Secretary Diplomacy. Geithner claims to want a strong dollar: TOKYO — U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday that maintaining a strong dollar is “very important” for the country’s economy, sticking to his mantra on foreign-exchange policy as the…