The BOJ intervened in the currency markets selling Yen for dollars early last week. You might think that would be positive for the US dollar but you would be wrong. The dollar index fell right along with the Yen and looks to be headed lower still.
Interestingly a longer term chart for the dollar shows a rising trend although a very volatile one. For now I would keep that 76 level in mind as a short term target.
I keep hearing about how the Fed - and a lot of other people - are worried about deflation but deflation is hard to square with charts like this one of cotton. I understand the difference between relative price changes and general inflation but the list of commodity charts that look like this is getting long to call price rises isolated.
The Australian dollar tends to confirm the emerging trend in commodity markets. The Aussie dollar tends to lead commodity prices.
The GSCI ETF is looking better but it isn't exactly a bull market - yet.
The uptrend in copper is gaining momentum.
Gold is extended but the platinum ETF is just beginning its move.
Some parts of the bond market appear to be peaking but the high yield rally rolls on. If Treasury yields really start to rise I don't think this will last. Spreads can only compress so far.
The MBS appears to have peaked. Not all that surprising with the Fed no longer buying.
Why would anyone buy the 7-10 year Treasury ETF when a quick, minor correction can wipe out a full year's worth of interest?
There isn't much good that one can say about the Japanese economy but the market has actually been amazingly resilient. If the BOJ is successful in pushing down the Yen will that be the spur for a stock market rally?
The Taiwanese stock market has been frustrating but with greater cooperation with mainland should come more investment.
The Indian market has recently gone vertical. I would not chase it here but wait to buy on a pullback.
Does the NASDAQ lead the broad market? If it does, the S&P's next move should be higher.
If commodities do continue to rise, the Russian market should follow.
Here's a new ETF I just started following that tracks emerging market infrastructure plays. And like almost everything else em related, it is breaking out.
Biotech is just breaking out of a base. The sector is cheap fundamentally and M&A activity is heating up.
Oil equipment and services ETF has built a base and if oil prices move higher you'll probably get more bang for your buck with the service companies.