Why are emerging market currencies breaking out? Because commodities are breaking out.
Which is also why the Aussie dollar has broken out.
And why the Loonie should be next.
And when the Fed says they are determined to prevent further disinflation, even lousy currencies like the Euro will rally. Never underestimate the ability of a determined central bank to create inflation.
GSG is lagging DJP because of its emphasis on energy but I would bet on it catching up.
Asian Real Estate stocks are responding to the easy policies of the US Fed.
Platinum broke out of the recent range. Not much resistance overhead.
The great sugar rally continues. Very overbought and I wouldn't chase it here, but I'm still long and using a trailing stop.
The US dollar index is following the script I laid out a couple of weeks ago. A little oversold right now so you might get some kind of bounce, but 76 is the target.
Fundamentally there is no reason for the surge in the Yen. In addition, the BOJ finally seems to have had a revelation that their deflation is a monetary problem. At some point the yen will come down a lot. YCS is one way to play that or you can short the futures or short FXY. When will it happen? Hard to say but it feels close.
Are bonds finally putting in a top? They should if the Fed is serious.
Foreign bonds look like a better bet.
Or with the currencies rallying, emerging market bonds in local currency.
High yield bonds don't look as toppy as other markets, but I don't see spreads getting any closer. I am looking for an exit.
Just wanted to highlight this one more time. The bull market in MBS is over.
Inverse long Treasury ETF finding a bottom.
Israel is back above the 200 day MA. I think there is more upside.
European emerging markets don't get much attention here but Poland is breaking out to the upside.
I've been pushing Peru for a long time now, but it might be time to take some short term profits. Very overbought and getting too much press attention.
Sweden is still my favorite developed European market.
As I've said before, the biggest beneficiary of easy Fed policy is Hong Kong. This chart should end that debate.
Taiwan is also a major beneficiary of easy Fed policy especially now that investment from the mainland is allowed.
Higher commodity prices should be beneficial to Russia but the market hasn't really moved yet.
The housing market still has major problems but home builder stocks are actually acting pretty good. Is that an inverted head and shoulders I see?