It’s not exactly the Newsweek indicator but anyone with contrarian instincts had to note the cover story of Barron’s this weekend, Bears Beware!, with at least a modicum of concern. The story concerns the magazine’s recent Big Money Poll survey of money managers who it turns out are – surprise! – bullish on stocks. I’m .. read more
From an article in the WSJ, Tuition Costs and Pell Grants Rise in Tandem: College tuition and fees climbed once again this year, but the burden was tempered for some students and their families by a big jump in federal aid, according to a new report by the nonprofit College Board. The average price of .. read more
From the Wall Street Journal: From 1947 through 1967, the year before the U.S. began to weasel out of its commitment to dollar-gold convertibility, unemployment averaged only 4.7% and never rose above 7%. Real growth averaged 4% a year. Low unemployment and high growth coincided with low inflation. During the 21 years ending in 1967, .. read more
I don’t believe Quantitative Easing Part II will have a positive effect on the economy. It may have a positive effect on commodity prices if you think rising commodity prices is a positive. More likely, rising commodity prices will have this effect: SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Rising iron-ore prices and softer demand are weighing on .. read more
John Hussman is a must read this week: The belief that an increase in the money supply will result in an increase in GDP relies on the assumption that velocity will not decline in proportion to the increase in money. Unfortunately for the proponents of “quantitative easing,” this assumption fails spectacularly in the data – .. read more
John Cochrane on our China policy: What’s the right policy toward China? They put a few trillion dollars worth of stuff on boats and sent it to us in exchange for U.S. government bonds. Those bonds lost a lot of value when the dollar fell relative to the euro and other currencies. Then they put .. read more
Harry Reid at a rally with President Obama: “We found ourselves in a hole that I didn’t dig, but I have dug, dug and dug to try to get out of that hole,” Reid said Well, then stop digging, damn it. You’re making things worse.
I know Alan Blinder is a really smart guy and surely knows more about economic theory than I do but when I read his Op-Ed today in the WSJ, I found myself yelling at my laptop. He says there are lots of ways fiscal policy could spur demand but they won’t be tried because of .. read more