The Euro is at a critical point near the 50 day MA. There was a big short covering rally after successful bond auctions in the middle of last week. Longer term charts show there is room to rally further to the 140 area, but I still think the trend will be lower over the course of the year.
The Aussie dollar is looking decidedly toppy. There are emerging problems with the Australian economy that are not widely acknowledged yet but may become more obvious if China slows.
The Yen also looks toppy and I expect the downtrend to resume soon. That should be positive for Japanese multinationals.
Gold stocks continued to get pounded last week. With the index now approaching the 200 day MA, long term bulls should consider taking positions.
But before you buy any gold stocks, consider this long term chart of the metal. It could fall a long way and still be in a long term uptrend. With gold up 10 years in a row, a down year wouldn't exactly be a shocker.
Meanwhile the uptrend in the general commodity indices is intact. Can the rest of the commodity complex rally if gold has a down year? If money comes out of gold because economic policy is improving, then the answer is yes. Other commodities could continue to rally on improved demand due to better growth.
REITs seem to have regained their footing but the fundamentals are not compelling.
There is little in the way of resistance to higher oil prices. This is what will kill the recovery if we don't do something soon to save the dollar.
The mortgage REIT etf I highlighted a few weeks ago rolls on. The companies in this ETF thrive on a steep yield curve. In case you missed it, the yield curve is the steepest it has ever been.
The action in this natural gas etf continues to impress.
The US dollar took a bit of a hit last week but seen in a longer term context, it really didn't mean much.
The inverse yen etf is trying to establish an uptrend.
The aggregate bond ETF failed at the 50 day MA last week. The trend is down until proven different.
The foreign bond etf rallied with the Euro late last week but there is no discernible trend.
Munis continue to get pounded. It is hard for me to believe this won't have consequences if it continues. I think it is overblown and being driven by panicky retail investors but it really doesn't matter. Selling is begetting more selling at this point. This will be a great buy at some point but not yet.
Brazil market still hasn't been able to break out of the top of the range.
I am still a long term bull on Chile but the short term isn't looking as good. The decision to intervene in currency markets to limit peso appreciation has not been well accepted.
After tripling off the 2009 low, the India ETF has run into a correction. I suspect there is more to go but a short term bounce would not be a surprise.
Peru, not unsurprisingly, looks a lot like Chile.
S&P 500 rally has been impressive but it is quite overbought right now. A dip just to the 50 day MA is around 5%.
After a minor correction, the oil service stocks have resumed their uptrend.
Semiconductors are taking off. Intel had great earnings last week.