There may be a bit more upside to the Euro but not much. Europe has not solved its debt problems and a political backlash is building for what has already been done.
Is the gold bull market over? For the short term...maybe, but as I've pointed out before gold can fall a long way and still be in a long term uptrend.
The commodity rally has lost momentum but the trend is still higher. Extending it will depend on a further weakening of the dollar.
Agricultural commodities continue to rise. Can somebody tell me again why we are using almost half our corn crop for ethanol?
The rally in the natural gas etf looks strong. Support is around 5.90.
The US dollar index is still in the well defined bottoming trend although it has weakened slightly recently. To really get a rally going we need better fiscal policy to create demand for dollars.
The problems facing state and local budgets are well known and real but the selloff in muni bonds looks increasingly overdone and panicky. I'm not a buyer yet but there is an interesting trade setting up to be long munis and short treasuries.
The bond market - here represented by the Aggregate bond ETF - is at an interesting point. Which way will it go? My guess is lower but I'll wait to see which way it goes.
Brazil continues to look very toppy. I reduced our position once and am close to selling more.
Australia also looks toppy. Based on that and my fears of a Chinese slowdown, I sold our Australian position last week.
The whole BRIC complex appears to have put in a top. Short term? Long term? I have no idea but this isn't a chart to buy.
I also sold our Chile position last week.
The uptrend for emerging markets has been broken. I would expect to test the 200 day MA.
India is very oversold and a rally from this area around the 200 day MA would not be surprising. If it does remember to keep it in the context of a developing downtrend.
Japan is finally taking a breather. Despite my overall bearish feelings in general, I am inclined to buy the dip.
The NASDAQ took a pretty good hit last week but for now it is only a minor correction.
I sold Peru last week too. Yes, I'm sitting on a pretty big cash position.
Small caps also took a pretty big hit last week and momentum is fading. For now the 50 day MA should be considered support but I'm skeptical.
Large caps are outperforming small caps over the last month. That could be a precursor to a larger correction.
Large Value is also outperforming large growth recently, another trend typical of corrections or bear markets.