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Weekly Chart Review

We've heard a lot about capital controls in emerging countries trying to reduce capital inflows. This chart of the Brazilian Real ETF would seem to indicate they aren't working. That might have implications for Brazilian and other emerging market stocks.

We've heard a lot about capital controls in emerging countries trying to reduce capital inflows. This chart of the Brazilian Real ETF would seem to indicate they aren't working. That might have implications for Brazilian and other emerging market stocks.

Gold mining stocks broker the short term downtrend but there is significant overhead resistance. Whether they manage to break through will depend largely on the course of the dollar.

Gold mining stocks broker the short term downtrend but there is significant overhead resistance. Whether they manage to break through will depend largely on the course of the dollar.

The commodity uptrend continues but momentum has waned. Like the gold stocks, the key is the dollar.

The commodity uptrend continues but momentum has waned. Like the gold stocks, the key is the dollar.

Indian stocks have gotten off to a terrible start this year but the Rupee doesn't reflect it.

Indian stocks have gotten off to a terrible start this year but the Rupee doesn't reflect it.

The REIT rally just rolls on but as I said last week, these things are not cheap. Be cautious.

The REIT rally just rolls on but as I said last week, these things are not cheap. Be cautious.

Crude was up last week but I still think it looks toppy and sentiment is uniformly bullish.

Crude was up last week but I still think it looks toppy and sentiment is uniformly bullish.

Sugar also appears to be putting in a broad top.

Sugar also appears to be putting in a broad top.

The dollar is threatening to break down. It isn't coincidence that it coincides with the release of Obama's budget.

The dollar is threatening to break down. It isn't coincidence that it coincides with the release of Obama's budget.

Here's a shorter term view that look rather ominous. The last rally failed at the 50 day MA. It needs to rally soon or we could break to new lows.

Here's a shorter term view that look rather ominous. The last rally failed at the 50 day MA. It needs to rally soon or we could break to new lows.

The rise in the 10 year Treasury yield has stalled at the weekly downtrend line. A bond rally would not be unexpected here.

The rise in the 10 year Treasury yield has stalled at the weekly downtrend line. A bond rally would not be unexpected here.

 

A shorter term view of the Aggregate Bond Index shows a higher low but the downtrend has not been broken yet.

A shorter term view of the Aggregate Bond Index shows a higher low but the downtrend has not been broken yet.

Local currency emerging market bonds have broken the downtrend. These look a better bet than emerging market stocks or dollar bonds.

Local currency emerging market bonds have broken the downtrend. These look a better bet than emerging market stocks or dollar bonds.

Intermediate munis have also broken their downtrend. Resistance at the 200 day MA.

Intermediate munis have also broken their downtrend. Resistance at the 200 day MA.

Brazil had a great week but there is a lot of overhead resistance. The Real, as mentioned above, is stil moving up though so that helps.

Brazil had a great week but there is a lot of overhead resistance. The Real, as mentioned above, is stil moving up though so that helps.

The Chile ETF is making a stand at the 200 day MA.

The Chile ETF is making a stand at the 200 day MA.

Emerging market stocks have been consolidating for months. Next upside test is the 50 day MA.

Emerging market stocks have been consolidating for months. Next upside test is the 50 day MA.

There isn't much history with this Ireland ETF but it is establishing a short term uptrend. Fundamentally dubious but technically sound.

There isn't much history with this Ireland ETF but it is establishing a short term uptrend. Fundamentally dubious but technically sound.

Israel seemed to get back on track last week but it needs to get solidly above the 50 day MA.

Israel seemed to get back on track last week but it needs to get solidly above the 50 day MA.

Japan continues to outperform the rest of Asia. If the Yen weakens this should continue.

Japan continues to outperform the rest of Asia. If the Yen weakens this should continue.

Expect a pullback in US stocks to the 61.8% retracement line around 1220. It could start at any time.

Expect a pullback in US stocks to the 61.8% retracement line around 1220. It could start at any time.