The Yen rallied with the earthquake but notably didn't break the emerging downtrend. Most observers are looking at repatriation to pay for damage. I'm thinking about more government spending in a country with a debt to GDP ratio north of 200%. At some point the Yen is going down hard.
Commodities were in correction mode last week but the uptrend is intact.
Agricultural commodities broke below the 50 day MA last week. Correction? Or the beginning of something more? With all the press its gotten recently, I suspect this bull market is in trouble.
Copper is in the early stages of a decline. A sign of bad things to come for the global economy? Maybe, but it might just mean a little less buying from China for now. Whatever the case, the downtrend probably has more to go.
It isn't just copper either. This industrial metals ETF looks pretty droopy.
Crude fell back a bit last week but the trend is still up.
The longer the US Dollar is able to hang above support the more likely a rally becomes. Renewed worries about Europe's periphery may be the trigger.
High yield bonds are finally correcting a little. I sold some last week. If fears of a renewed economic slowdown continue to rise, high yield may be in for something bigger. Its a very crowded trade.
Intermediate Treasuries seem to be finding their footing. Economic slowdown coming?
The EAFE has broken below the 50 day MA. There may be a bounce but I think a downtrend is developing.
Emerging markets remain in the range trade. I don't know which way this will eventually go but my bias is to the downside.
A Rothschild once said that you should buy when there is blood in the streets. If that is true you might consider this ETF for emerging middle east and Africa. Personally, I don't have the guts for it.
Hong Kong failed at the 50 day MA.
Japan was already correcting before the earthquake hit. I've still got a small position and won't sell on this news. Japan will have to inflate and that will be good for their multinationals. I am also short the Yen though.
Small caps have broken the uptrend. Consolidation or something more? Canary in the coal mine?
The S&P may be finally starting the correction back to the 61.8% retracement line. Risk is to the downside here. Be careful.
Thailand broke its short term downtrend but I wouldn't be in a hurry to re-enter this market. If the rest of the world corrects so will THD.
The VIX is solidly above the 50 day MA now but hasn't yet been able to clear the 200 day. I expect it will soon - maybe next week.
US Broker/Dealers have broken the uptrend. I was stopped out of GS last week.
Regional banks aren't looking so healthy either.
Oil service stocks bounced Friday right at the 50 day MA.
Semiconductors got hammered last week and the trend has changed. Support comes up soon but this is a very cyclical sector. Is this an advance signal about economic growth?
Healthcare is in a solid uptrend. Defensive sector leading the market? Hmmm....
Utilities - another defensive sector - are also performing well.