The rise in the Brazilian real has been steady. In the wake the G-7 effort to weaken the yen, it seems unlikely to end soon.
The Euro is nearing a breakout. Considering the depth of the debt problems in Europe I am somewhat skeptical of this move but the charts say what they say.
The Australian economy has a large exposure to Japan. The Aussie dollar reflected that last week and I would expect a further drop.
What to say about the Yen? Thursday afternoon's move was a holy crap moment as it looked like a huge unwind of the carry trade but G-7 intervention pushed it back down Friday. Will they be able to change the trend? My guess is yes but the job sure isn't done.
Gold stocks continued their correction but held above the 200 day MA. I am still worried about the divergence between the stocks and the metal. How will it be resolved?
Gold's failure to make new highs on the Japan news tells me the stocks are most likely leading the metal.
GSG bounced off the 50 day MA as expected. How much longer can this bull last? Commodity bull markets tend to be self defeating as rising prices reduce economic growth. How far are we from that point? I suspect we are closer than anyone realizes.
If commodity stocks lead commodity prices then this ETF of hard asset producers may be signaling an imminent end to the commodity rise.
REITs are barely above the 50 day MA and the uptrend line. The sector isn't cheap and a further correction seems likely.
Mortgage REITs have broken the uptrend but are holding above support. A consolidation period seems likely.
The dollar index appears to have broken the short term uptrend line I've been concentrating on. It is hard to find a good reason to own dollars right now but I wouldn't turn very bearish unless we break the previous low. Everybody hates the dollar - for good reasons - but one sided trades rarely work out.
The weak dollar is driving up foreign bonds but they are overextended a bit.
The stock market correction has driven up bond prices but we're not at resistance. With inflation expectations heating up I don't think there is much upside here.
High Yield bonds are still looking toppy as I pointed out several weeks ago. I've sold almost all our position.
TIPs have risen more than other bonds but are also at resistance.
As I said earlier, Australia has a big exposure to Japan. I wouldn't be any more anxious to buy them than the currency.
Japan hit the EAFE much harder than the US market. The technical picture is pretty grim.
Emerging market stocks continue their consolidation. If the G-7 is successful in capping the Yen, renewed interest in the carry trade may be a catalyst for higher prices.
Hong Kong is due for a bounce but it is still in the context of a downtrend.ewjJapan took a big hit obviously but not as big as it first appeared. One note of caution for contrarians is that there were big inflows to Japan funds last week. Everybody is buying this dip.
The NADAQ is at support and I would expect a bounce. I would also expect it to fail.
The same analysis applies to the S&P 500.
I've been warning for weeks about a retracement in the SPX. 1220 is still the target and an overshoot isn't out of the quesiton. In fact, the bull market may be over.
Could Taiwan be a beneficiary of reduced production in Japan? Maybe but the technical picture here isn't much better than the rest of Asia.
Here's an Asian market that doesn't look that bad - Thailand. I sold my position last year but am considering getting back in. That will depend on the economic outlook though and while they reported very good export numbers last week, that was prior to Japan.