The Euro is extended to the upside and due for a correction. With Greece yields blowing out and the Finnish vote Sunday, it could come next week.
If the end of QE II corresponds with a slowing of the economy or a reduction in inflation expectations - or both - one would expect long term interest rates to fall. If short rates stay the same the effect would be a flattening of the yield curve. One might consider this ETN which rises when the yield curve flattens.
The Mexican peso had another good week. The Mexican economy is performing surprisingly well but this might be getting a bit overdone.
The Yen has had a bit of countertrend rally but I think the trend is still down.
What can I say about gold? Be warned though; the dollar will not fall forever. In fact, I expect a rally when QE II ends. Longs should note that the long term trend line is a long, long way down from here.
The CRB was once again stopped at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement. With coming end of QE it seems this might be a top.
The dollar is way overdue for a bounce.
Emerging market bonds are holding a nice trend line.
The 7-10 year Treasury ETF held support and looks set for a move higher.
Intermediate munis held above the 50 day MA and also look poised for a move higher.
Brazil held support for now. I would call myself a nervous long.
Chile also held support and like Brazil I'm a nervous long. These countries are dependent on high commodity prices and with the end of QE coming, I'm not sure that's something we can count on.
Emerging markets pulled back to the previous breakout point and held. That is expected and a positive sign.
As I warned previously, India pulled back after the big move up. I'm still positive but the high inflation numbers and the earnings miss by INFY give pause.
The NASDAQ appears to have made at least a short term top with the 50 day MA now acting as resistance.
The S&P 500 made a lower high and is now around the 50 day MA. This is looking more and more like a top. I may be selling more this week.
The long term picture doesn't look any better and I still expect a correction to at least the 1220 area.
Switzerland has broken out to new highs.
The bull market for biotech continues but the trend is extended.
Big pharma - a defensive sector - is also on a tear.