201105.30
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Weekly Economic and Market Review

Why haven’t stock prices fallen more? I’ve been asking myself that question every day for weeks and I don’t have a good answer. The US economic data continues to weaken. Europe is still grappling with its debt problems and a Greek default – at a minimum – seems more likely by the day. It seems…

201105.24
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Retailer Earnings Show Expanding Consumer Exhaustion

Having completed what we called the most pivotal earnings season of the recovery, we see that the main theme going into it has carried through to the end. The primary worry for the economy was consumer exhaustion and that was evident in numerous company results. For retailers, in particular, the results were not inspiring. Going…

201105.22
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Weekly Economic and Market Review

Anticipation of the rapture must have gripped Wall Street traders last week. That’s the only explanation I can come up with for the first day trading of LinkedIn. If the world had ended Saturday as expected, surely it wouldn’t matter that Thursday you paid 35 times sales for a company that expects to post a…

201105.19
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Thoughts On The GC-IOER Collapse

The GC-IOER collapse is far more significant than many people realize.  The dynamics of the repo market are not always easy to understand, but somehow I don’t think that is the reason it has received zero attention outside of ZeroHedge. ZeroHedge’s coverage has rightly focused on the liquidity implications for Wall Street institutions and the…

201105.18
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Why the Paper Silver Crash of 2011 Is Not Like 1980

Silver rocketed to $50 per ounce, then crashed. Beginning in the wee hours of Sunday night May 1, 2011, the selling deluge began during the most illiquid trading period. After dropping about $6 per ounce that night, silver prices had the audacity to resume their upward climb, shooting back above $47 again during regular trading….

201105.18
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Why Economic Deceleration Is Uniform

One of the core theories that ACM has been operating under these past four  years is that the Great Recession was a natural attempt at economic  re-adjustment.  We believe that monetary policy conducted to “combat” the  symptoms of that re-adjustment would ultimately prove to be counterproductive  since any disruption of that process would only delay…