Like very other commodity last week, natural gas took a hit but it managed to stay above the short term uptrend line and the 50 day MA.
The Brazilian Real pulled back to the 50 day MA last week. Despite the heavy selloff, the uptrend is intact - for now.
I've been warning that the Euro was extended to the upside and last week came the correction. It pulled back right at resistance and is still quite a ways above the uptrend line. Expect a test of the 140 area and maybe even lower.
Well so much for the commodity uptrend. Support is nearby but a test of the 200 day MA is not out of the question. We were stopped out of part of our position last week.
Gold bounced right at the 50 day MA but I think a further correction is in order. Expect to test the 200 day.
REITs were hit like everything else last week but held up amazingly well. I'd still be wary as the fundamentals are not supportive.
Crude had one of its worst week's ever but as you can see on the long term chart it really doesn't mean all that much. Could it go all the way back to the long term uptrend line? Not immediately, but sure it can. Peak oil? Yeah, right.
A shorter term view of crude. A test of the 200 day MA around 90 seems likely.
Huh. Look at that. The CRB pulled back right at the Fibonacci retracement level I've been highlighting for weeks. Say what you want but there is order in the universe.
The Great Silver Rout of 2011. I've mostly ignored silver since there was absolutely no fundamental support for the move. If you're long this thing still I think the best you can hope for short term is a bounce up to the 50 day MA. Longer term the price depends entirely on the dollar.
As Monty Python said, "I'm not dead yet". The dollar finally bounced. It wasn't much but I expect more upside to around the 79-80 level. The long term direction still depends on US economic policy and on that front I'm still not very optimistic.
Treasuries had another good week. Economic data was generally weak and with the break in commodities, inflation worries are ebbing. Resistance is right here though so some cosolidation or correction wouldn't be surprising.
Long term trends are really, really hard to break. Long term Treasuries have been in an uptrend for a very long time and the trend is reasserting itself. Upside target is the downtrend line from the 2008 high.
Brazil has gone nowhere for the last 7 months as the central bank has been fighting inflation. I think a rise in the dollar may prove beneficial for Brazil and other emerging markets as their central banks won't have tighten as much. If you believe in the long term Brazilian growth story, this might be a good time to pick up some shares.
Considering the damage in the commodity sector, emerging market stocks actually held up pretty well last week. For now they are holding above the 50 day MA and are still higher than they were just two months ago.
India had a very tough week and broke under the 50 day MA. It's at support though so don't panic yet.
Peru continued its bounceback from very oversold conditions. The run off election is June 5th.
Poland pulled back but the uptrend is intact.
The long term picture of the S&P hasn't changed. I still think a pullback to the 61.8% retracement is likely. Recent economic data has been weak and a growth scare like last year would probably do the trick.
The oil service stocks finally broke the uptrend but held first support. If oil continues to correct so will these stocks. Next support at 56.