The Brazilian Real appears to be making a lower high. Is the emerging market currency rally finally over?
This ETF is a basket of emerging market currencies and is showing classic topping signs.
The Euro is showing similar behavior. This is looking more and more like a bottom for the dollar. The question is whether it is bottoming for a good reason or a bad one. So far the evidence points to the latter.
It isn't as obvious but gold also looks toppy.
The commodity index ETFs rallied back to the 50 day MA but appear to have failed. If the dollar is really making a bottom that makes sense.
REITs may have finally topped. Most people don't know it but REITs are also sensitive to the dollar. Expect a bounce soon that will just be an opportunity for longs to liquidate.
As I said a few weeks ago, it looks like crude has topped. The 50 day MA is now acting as resistance. Also dollar related.
A longer term view of crude. Expect support around 90 but the longer term target is around 70.
The recent flattening of the yield curve has hurt the mortgage REITs but I don't expect either condition to persist.
Nothing has changed with the long term basing pattern in the dollar. I'm looking for a run over several months toward the 90 level.
Fears of China slowing have pushed down Asian equities. If they are going to bounce it will be here at the 200 day MA.
The same is true of all emerging markets.
The NASDAQ is also at its 200 day MA. Sentiment is very negative so a bounce seems near. Whether it will be anything sustainable is questionable.
Alright, I was wrong. Humala won the election in Peru. Until we know whether he is the second coming of Lula or Chavez, sell any rallies.
I've been waring about this correction for three months now and I still don't think its over. The target remains 1220.
The broker-dealers led the market on the downside and may lead it back up. Tentative signs - very tentative - of a bottom.