The Euro bounced off 140 support again on more speculation about a Greek bailout but I don't expect it to last. First downside target is the 200 day MA at 138.
Gold stocks have broken down badly. Next support in the mid 40s. It is worth remembering that gold stocks often lead the metal.
Gold has made no progress for the last three months. The uptrend was very steep and downtrends often mirror the uptrend. I think we could easily see a correction down to the long term uptrend line around 1000. It all depends on the dollar.
The commodity index ETF had another bad week and now sits just above the 200 day MA. This is a downtrend folks; expect rallies to be capped at the 50 day MA.
It's looking more and more like the top is in for REITs. The bounce has been feeble and as I've said many times, fundamentals do not support current prices. REITs are dollar sensitive as well.
Crude oil had another down leg and is now just above the 200 day MA. Expect a bounce here but the trend is lower.
The long term view on crude points to a $70 target. It would take a much stronger dollar but the long term uptrend line around 44 is not out of the question.
The US Dollar index is still conforming to the multi year bottoming process. This is part of the transition process I've written about in my weekly updates. The target in this case is pretty obvious around 90. How that affects commodities is also obvious. How it affects stocks is less so. This correction has coincided with the stabilization of the dollar but eventually investors should realize that lower commodity prices are good for the economy.
The yield on the 10 year Treasury note continues to fall. Frankly, it could go either way here but the momentum is to the downside.
Emerging market bonds broke the steep short term uptrend line but should find support at the 50 day MA.
High yield bonds finally cracked but held above the 200 day MA. Expect a bounce but it looks like the top is in. Does this mean the economy is headed back to recession? Not yet, but it isn't a comforting sign.
Is the emerging market story over? Long term probably not, but with commodity prices rolling over it is hard to make a case, technical or fundamental, for owning them.
We're not there yet.
The broker dealer stocks are stabilizing and a big bounce would not be unexpected but the trend is obvious.
Health care is one of the better looking groups but even it is below the 50 day MA.
An obvious beneficiary of lower oil prices is the transportation sector. First resistance is the 50 day MA.