Thinking Things Over Musings on the Markets from Inside the Beltway By John L. Chapman Vol. I, No.2 07/31/11 In this note: “Balance sheet-” versus “Aggregate demand-” recessions: is there a difference, and does it matter for investors? What is our investment strategy in light of our findings? Two days before the debt ceiling “deadline”, .. read more
The focus last week was on the US debt ceiling debate but of greater importance is the slowdown in global economic growth. The US GDP report Friday showed just how weak the US economy was over the first half of 2011 but this isn’t just a US problem. Canada and Australia are also slowing – .. read more
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The prices of precious metals have resumed their rise in July as uncertainties surrounding the euro and dollar have intensified. To the bewilderment of many this move in relative terms to almost every fiat currency is irrational. Gold is not money, so they tell us, and should not be acting as if it is an .. read more
Durable goods orders and the stock market are highly correlated. We are starting to see some divergence.
There were concerns being voiced today that if a debt ceiling deal was struck, but didn’t address long term reduction of government spending, the US may still face a debt rating down grade. A downgrade is meaningful today because lower credit quality demands a higher return from the market. There are additional concerns that some .. read more
Gold Up Silver Up Swiss Franc Up US Stocks Down US Dollar Down US Treasuries Down This is a flight of capital from this country. The dollar and treasuries are falling down the ranks of safe haven assets. Markets have lost more confidence in the people running the country. Our leaders are wearing no clothes.
Note: Alhambra Investment Partners welcomes John L. Chapman to our research and investment management staff. Dr. Chapman, an economist who spends half his time in Washington, D.C., has extensive experience in private equity investing, corporate finance and merger advisory work, and corporate strategy consulting. He will provide Alhambra readers with regular commentary and market analysis, .. read more