It is commonly understood that inflation, especially the official and accepted definition of it, is entirely a monetary phenomena. Inflation, that is the general rise in the level of prices across the entire economy, is caused and aided by an imbalance in the level of monetary growth relative to growth in the real economy. It is an under-appreciated sentiment in [...]
Thinking Things Over February 26, 2012 Volume II, Number 8: The Stock Market, Dependent upon Economic Policy Prospects, Will Predict November's Election Winner By John L. Chapman, Ph.D. Washington, D.C. I refuse to leave our children with a debt they cannot repay. We cannot and will not sustain deficits like these without end. ... We cannot simply spend as we please. [...]
Joseph Gomez, Sr. Investment Advisor and Portfolio Manager I just paid $4.29/gal for premium fuel in Coral Gables, Florida. How much are you paying in your part of the country or world? (Please use our comment section below.) This is one of the drawbacks of a strong(er) economy. On many occasions during our Investment Committee meetings, I opined on [...]
At Alhambra, as Joe Calhoun wrote last month, we embrace the merits of both value and momentum in investing. The decision to buy value or momentum, though, should not be made in isolation. At Alhambra, our tactical strategies embrace long term investment solutions which incorporate value and momentum decisions based, first, upon our analysis of fundamentals and the monetary and [...]
The stock market continued to defy gravity last week in its ongoing attempt to make me look like a fool for trying to predict its movements. We've recently moved our portfolios to a neutral risk position from the more aggressive stance we adopted during the great sovereign debt scare of last fall and are contemplating an even more conservative posture. [...]
More of the same this week. Markets inching higher on low volume. Crude oil spiking. Tensions in the Middle East. The Bank of Japan trying to do too much. The markets do seem overbought right now, but have been for weeks now. Will this correction ever come? The Nasdaq Composite is holding its trend line. The index is overbought, and [...]
Academic studies for many years have demonstrated over and over again how difficult it is for active managers to consistently beat the market. Most of these studies show that about 65 to 70% of the time active managers fail to beat market averages. I recently read the 2011 edition of Burton Malkiel's classic book on investing called " A Random [...]
With US economic data still surprisingly strong - although not as surprisingly as it was a few months ago - and Europe about to "solve" the Greek crisis - again - it might seem a curious time to start worrying about the global economy, but I can't shake the feeling that all isn't right with the economic world. Investors have [...]
The S&P 500 once again finds itself higher for the week. The index broke out nicely following its test at the 50 week moving average. Up next? 1370. The Nasdaq Composite is straddling its upward trend line. The Nasdaq is a market on fire, but will it come crashing down, or continue to make multi-yr highs? Crude oil has been [...]
Joseph Gomez, Sr. Investment Advisor and Portfolio Manager Of the nineteen economic indicators released this week, nine were weaker than expected, eight were stronger, and two were in line. Once again this week, strength was concentrated in employment and housing related indicators. Thursday’s initial jobless claims report showed that the nation’s employment picture continues to improve. In terms of expectations, this week's total of 348K was well below consensus expectations of [...]
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