2012 July

Divergence

I don’t think there is much doubt what is moving stocks higher right now. The run-up at the end of last week was touched off by Mario Draghi’s comments about unlimited monetary easing, persisting through what was at best a lackluster, though completely unsurprising, US GDP report. Perhaps stock investors were relieved that GDP was .. read more

Runaway Train

From friend of Alhambra, Brian Cronin: Cards on the table: I consider myself a euroskeptic. You may already have gathered that if you’ve read enough of these essays. Having lived in the UK when Britain decided to join itself to the European Union in 1973 and seeing after that the creeping effects of what that .. read more

On July 29th, 2012, posted in: Currencies, Economy by Tags: , ,

Tactical Update/Macro Themes

Some say that history repeats itself.  Can Ben Bernanke draw some insight into policy by looking back at an 18th century financial crisis in Amsterdam?  I would say, yes, I hope so, isn’t that his job.  The FED also thinks this, or they wouldn’t be budgeting money for such studies which can be found on .. read more

Drugged By Draghi

Stock markets took off in the middle of last week as Mario Draghi promised to save the Euro: Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough. To the extent that the size of the sovereign premia (borrowing costs) hamper the functioning .. read more

Thinking Things Over: Sell Now and Buy Again This Fall, or Don’t Fight the Fed?

Thinking Things Over    July 29, 2012 Volume II, Number 30:   Sell Now and Buy Again This Fall, or Don’t Fight the Fed?   By John L. Chapman, Ph.D.       Dallas, Texas Nostalgia is a word in the English language borne of precision: it needs no definition in context because everyone knows immediately what it means.  It .. read more

On July 29th, 2012, posted in: Economy, Markets by Tags: , 1 Comment

Lessons From The Levered Edge

The Spanish economy is in serious trouble no matter how you slice it. I tend to focus on the macro perspective, but there is a lot to be said from the bits of dispersed information coming out of the micro world. Last Friday, Joe Calhoun and I were talking Telefonica and how it related to .. read more

The Final Countdown?

The divergence in European credit has perhaps reached a watershed. In non-euro denominations of European debt, such as Switzerland and Denmark, government bond yields have surged further downward to record negative yields. The Swiss 2-year note, for instance, is now yielding below –0.43%. For the sake of comparison, one year ago, during what was then .. read more

High Noon

From friend of Alhambra, Brian Cronin: The Basic or Fundamental Law of the Federal Republic of Germany (Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland) came into effect in May 1949 after much discussion between the occupying powers – the USA, UK and France – after World War Two. The guardian of the law is the Federal German .. read more

On July 22nd, 2012, posted in: Currencies, Economy by Tags: , ,