201207.30
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Divergence

I don’t think there is much doubt what is moving stocks higher right now. The run-up at the end of last week was touched off by Mario Draghi’s comments about unlimited monetary easing, persisting through what was at best a lackluster, though completely unsurprising, US GDP report. Perhaps stock investors were relieved that GDP was…

201207.29
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Runaway Train

From friend of Alhambra, Brian Cronin: Cards on the table: I consider myself a euroskeptic. You may already have gathered that if you’ve read enough of these essays. Having lived in the UK when Britain decided to join itself to the European Union in 1973 and seeing after that the creeping effects of what that…

201207.29
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Tactical Update/Macro Themes

Some say that history repeats itself.  Can Ben Bernanke draw some insight into policy by looking back at an 18th century financial crisis in Amsterdam?  I would say, yes, I hope so, isn’t that his job.  The FED also thinks this, or they wouldn’t be budgeting money for such studies which can be found on…

201207.29
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Drugged By Draghi

Stock markets took off in the middle of last week as Mario Draghi promised to save the Euro: Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough. To the extent that the size of the sovereign premia (borrowing costs) hamper the functioning…

201207.29
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Thinking Things Over: Sell Now and Buy Again This Fall, or Don’t Fight the Fed?

Thinking Things Over    July 29, 2012 Volume II, Number 30:   Sell Now and Buy Again This Fall, or Don’t Fight the Fed?   By John L. Chapman, Ph.D.       Dallas, Texas Nostalgia is a word in the English language borne of precision: it needs no definition in context because everyone knows immediately what it means.  It…

201207.23
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The Final Countdown?

The divergence in European credit has perhaps reached a watershed. In non-euro denominations of European debt, such as Switzerland and Denmark, government bond yields have surged further downward to record negative yields. The Swiss 2-year note, for instance, is now yielding below –0.43%. For the sake of comparison, one year ago, during what was then…

201207.22
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High Noon

From friend of Alhambra, Brian Cronin: The Basic or Fundamental Law of the Federal Republic of Germany (Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland) came into effect in May 1949 after much discussion between the occupying powers – the USA, UK and France – after World War Two. The guardian of the law is the Federal German…

201207.22
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Things We Think We Know

“It ain’t so much the things we don’t know that get us into trouble. It’s the things we know that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain I’ve been writing some more optimistic commentaries recently – or maybe just less pessimistic – and the response has been interesting to say the least. I don’t remember so many…

201207.22
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Thinking Things Over: Why Stock Market Prospects are So Poor for the Long Run (But Why You Still Should Own Stocks)

Thinking Things Over     July 22, 2012 Volume II, Number 29:   Why Stock Market Prospects are So Poor for the Long Run (But Why You Still Should Own Stocks)               By John L. Chapman, Ph.D.      Canton, Ohio At age 79, Blackstone Capital Advisors’ Vice Chairman Byron Wien is one of the elder statesmen of Wall Street. …