I don’t think there is much doubt what is moving stocks higher right now. The run-up at the end of last week was touched off by Mario Draghi’s comments about unlimited monetary easing, persisting through what was at best a lackluster, though completely unsurprising, US GDP report. Perhaps stock investors were relieved that GDP was not worse, but there was [...]
From friend of Alhambra, Brian Cronin: Cards on the table: I consider myself a euroskeptic. You may already have gathered that if you’ve read enough of these essays. Having lived in the UK when Britain decided to join itself to the European Union in 1973 and seeing after that the creeping effects of what that meant for ten years before [...]
Some say that history repeats itself. Can Ben Bernanke draw some insight into policy by looking back at an 18th century financial crisis in Amsterdam? I would say, yes, I hope so, isn’t that his job. The FED also thinks this, or they wouldn’t be budgeting money for such studies which can be found on their websites. So it would [...]
Stock markets took off in the middle of last week as Mario Draghi promised to save the Euro: Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough. To the extent that the size of the sovereign premia (borrowing costs) hamper the functioning of the monetary policy transmission [...]
Thinking Things Over July 29, 2012 Volume II, Number 30: Sell Now and Buy Again This Fall, or Don’t Fight the Fed? By John L. Chapman, Ph.D. Dallas, Texas Nostalgia is a word in the English language borne of precision: it needs no definition in context because everyone knows immediately what it means. It refers of course to a [...]
The Spanish economy is in serious trouble no matter how you slice it. I tend to focus on the macro perspective, but there is a lot to be said from the bits of dispersed information coming out of the micro world. Last Friday, Joe Calhoun and I were talking Telefonica and how it related to the unfolding mess. He was [...]
The divergence in European credit has perhaps reached a watershed. In non-euro denominations of European debt, such as Switzerland and Denmark, government bond yields have surged further downward to record negative yields. The Swiss 2-year note, for instance, is now yielding below –0.43%. For the sake of comparison, one year ago, during what was then believed to be no small [...]
From friend of Alhambra, Brian Cronin: The Basic or Fundamental Law of the Federal Republic of Germany (Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland) came into effect in May 1949 after much discussion between the occupying powers - the USA, UK and France - after World War Two. The guardian of the law is the Federal German Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht or BverfG). [...]
“It ain’t so much the things we don’t know that get us into trouble. It’s the things we know that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain I've been writing some more optimistic commentaries recently - or maybe just less pessimistic - and the response has been interesting to say the least. I don't remember so many people telling me how dumb [...]
Thinking Things Over July 22, 2012 Volume II, Number 29: Why Stock Market Prospects are So Poor for the Long Run (But Why You Still Should Own Stocks) By John L. Chapman, Ph.D. Canton, Ohio At age 79, Blackstone Capital Advisors’ Vice Chairman Byron Wien is one of the elder statesmen of Wall Street. He’s still going strong, however, [...]
Stay In Touch