From President Obama's press conference today: The other option is to pass a law right now that would prevent any tax hike whatsoever on the first $250,000 of everybody’s income. And by the way, that means every American, including the wealthiest Americans, get a tax cut. It means that 98 percent of all Americans and 97 percent of all small [...]
Seasonal adjustments or unadulterated data? Imputations and trend-cycle analysis or extrapolating trends from raw data? After beating consensus estimates for two months in August and September, seasonally-adjusted retail sales came back down to earth in October. One of the primary drags on growth was a rather large decline in automobile sales – a topic we have covered extensively in our [...]
The headline says "Japan nears fifth recession in 15 years". That's quite an economic record for a former powerhouse. The most infuriating part of the commentary, though, is this statement from an "economist", “The question is how long and deep this downturn will be and how policy makers will react,” said Masamichi Adachi, an economist at JPMorgan. It's abundantly clear [...]
The S&P 500 ((IVV)) has had a nice run since its June lows, but all that is likely coming to an end, as the impending fiscal cliff ravaged the markets this past week. The index finds itself at a critical stage, having broken the 50-day and 200-day moving average after forming what seems to be a short-term double-top. It currently [...]
Well, the election is over and I know what you're thinking: "Calhoun is an idiot. He said last week that elections don't matter but just look at what the market did last week. Obama gets re-elected and the market immediately takes a dive. See, elections do matter." Given the 400 point plus spanking the market took in the three days [...]
Total European roundup from this morning – marginally less bad in the PIIGS, but deterioration into contraction in Germany and especially France. SPAIN, Services PMI 41.2, up from 40.2 “This Further sharp reductions in activity and new orders were recorded in the Spanish service sector during October as the economic crisis in the country persisted. Falling demand led companies to [...]
The Standard & Poor’s 500 is a stock market index based on the common stock prices of the biggest 500 publicly traded American companies. The S&P 500 currently sits below the 50-day moving average after testing resistance and failing this past week. It looks like the index is headed for the next leg lower, probably down to the 200-day MA [...]
What a ridiculous question, right? Of course it matters say the Romney supporters. Getting someone in the White House who understands business will make all the difference. Of course it matters say the Obama supporters. Making the rich pay their fair share will mean a more equal economy and more growth. Of course it matters say the Romney supporters. Lower [...]
This was the second consecutive employment report that featured a large increase in employment levels estimated by the Household Survey. After September’s +873k, October’s survey yielded a gain in overall employment of +410k. While this has caused a spurt of optimism, it is actually the second time just this year we have seen this pattern ( a near exact repeat). [...]
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