The Standard & Poor’s 500 is a stock market index based on the common stock prices of the biggest 500 publicly traded American companies. The S&P 500 ((IVV)) successfully bounced off the 50-day moving average at the end of 2012 on it way to making new multi-year highs in January. However, it is quickly approaching overbought territory. Anything above 70 [...]
Lance Armstrong confessed to Oprah Winfrey last week what most rational observers had concluded many years ago - he took performance enhancing drugs during his 7 Tour de France wins. His excuse - as Randall Forsyth points out in Barron's this week - is one that every parent knows well - everyone else was doing it. Peer pressure pushed Lance Armstrong to [...]
For most of 2012, Target II got most of the attention as a matter of interbank and Eurozone liquidity conditions. Target II liabilities built in the periphery (particularly Spain) as banks in the "core" withdrew from those sovereign debt markets. That left peripheral debt markets short of the liquidity needed to fund both public and private debt markets - credit [...]
The heavy hand of Federal Reserve policy is apparent in the credit markets as intended. The Fed continues to follow a ZIRP approach that expects low interest rates to create credit production in the banking system that transitions to the real economy as either personal sector or business loans. The first part of that equation has conformed to policy expectations [...]
Bank of New York Mellon, which we own in our Global Opportunities portfolio, reported earnings on 1/16/13 that were in line with estimates: INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AND PERFORMANCE FEES UP 17% YEAR-OVER-YEAR ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT UP 10% YEAR-OVER-YEAR Net long-term inflows of $56 billion over last 12 months, $14 billion in 4Q12 ASSETS UNDER CUSTODY/ADMINISTRATION UP 9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR New wins of [...]
More data from various sources on primary economic parameters seemingly at odds. First, unemployment claims dropped to a five-year low according to the adjusted BLS data series. At the opposite end, Gallup's measure of employment fell, suggesting to Gallup that employment has gotten worse in January 2013. Since Gallup's numbers are not adjusted, it, rightfully, compares results with January 2012 [...]
The sentiment regarding US stocks has recently gotten even more bullish and while our longer term outlook is fairly bullish, it is hard to maintain that stance in the short term. The AAII weekly poll now has bulls at 46.5%, bears at 26.9% and fence sitters at 26.6%. While that isn't enough to send me running to all cash, it [...]
I haven't yet commented on the Trillion Dollar Platinum Coin option to avoid the debt ceiling because it is so stupid that I couldn't fathom that anyone might actually take it seriously. Silly me. It appears that I underestimated the desire of certain politicians to keep spending ever larger amounts of our cash. No less than Paul Krugman - Nobel [...]
The Tactical Portfolios range from ETF-based trend-following models to all-stock or all-bond model portfolios that are actively managed. While we tend to use the same asset classes as are found in our Strategic Portfolios, the allocation to each asset class is adjusted using a top-down approach based on our economic outlook, as well as fundamental and technical analysis. The Tactical Portfolios are global in [...]
It's that time of the year again, and I don't mean bowl games or New Years eve hangovers. What I do mean, is it is time to look at how well the high paid mavens of Wall Street did trying to prognosticate market movements and managing money in 2012. As usual it wasn't pretty. For any of you who have [...]
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