Same story, different month. Durable goods are still running well-below 2008 comparisons, continung the run of bad numbers and trends. Headline durable goods were great due to a huge increase at Boeing, but the results outside of that were pretty much standard for 2013. While new orders continued a slight uptick in both durable goods ex-transportation and nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft (+3.67% and +6.09% Y/Y, respectively), shipments in both actually declined (-0.31% and -1.1% Y/Y, respectively).

ABOOK July 2013 Durable Goods ex Trans

In terms of shipments, the current trajectory is continuing to follow closely the 2008 track.

ABOOK July 2013 Durable Goods ex Trans Shipments Comparison 2008

While the current divergence with new orders may provide some optimism that shipments will eventually pick up, outside of the normal month-to-month volatility this kind of divergence was also seen in the early parts of the Great Recession.

ABOOK July 2013 Durable Goods Cap Goods Ship & Orders

New orders ratcheted upward all the way into September 2008, not really falling apart until after the panic. In fact, new orders for nondefense capital goods increased a very similar 5.38% Y/Y in June 2008 and then another 5.35% in July 2008. Shipments did not follow, slowly dropping until they collapsed entirely after October 2008.

On the whole, both new orders and shipments are tracking extremely weak across the volatile month-to-month changes. YTD, 2013 has seen a horrible run, again worse than both 2008 and 2007.

ABOOK July 2013 Durable Goods ex trans YTD

Clearly, June 2013’s activity is running on a trajectory fully different than even 2012; marking the inflection between what was at least positive growth in the years after 2009.

ABOOK July 2013 Durable Goods Cap Goods Ship Junes

While the entire recovery period has been lackluster across the economic spectrum, again, 2013 cannot be classified as either recovery or growth. When the economy slows so dramatically that it cannot break 2% GDP for more than one quarter in six, and runs below 2008 in so many places, you have to begin to wonder what is going on beneath the surface of the Establishment Survey that makes the labor market appear so contrary to almost every other indication.

 

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