Top News Headlines

  1. Stocks succumb to gravity. Industrials join transports in official correction, down over 10%. S&P down almost 8%. Emerging markets enter the bear’s lair, down 25% from recent highs.
  2. Oil cracks the $40 barrier – to the downside.
  3. Tensions high on the Korean Peninsula.
  4. Americans foil terror attack on French train.
  5. Kazakhstan devalues the Tenge. Yes, that’s a currency. Vietnam devalues the Dong. Yes, that’s a currency too and it’s okay to giggle a little. Anyone old enough to remember the Asian crisis has flashbacks.

Economic News

  1. Empire State manufacturing survey craters; Philly Fed report eases fears.
  2. Housing starts at 1.2 million rate, permits plunge. Existing home sales a bright spot.
  3. CPI shows inflation still running cold.
  4. FOMC minutes: Are we there yet? Apparently not….
  5. Leading indicators down 0.2%
  6. China PMI still in contraction territory.
  7. Santa nears bankruptcy. I kid you not.

Random Thought Of The Week

Consider three seemingly unconnected events from last week: Donald Trump draws thousands to a rally in Alabama, Joe Biden meets with Elizabeth Warren and the Dow loses 1000 points. Maybe the events aren’t as unconnected as they first seem. With an actual clown emerging as the leader from the clown car of Republican candidates and an amiable dunce about to be drafted to replace the rapidly sinking Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side, who could blame investors for worrying about our future?

Chart Of The Week

spx weekly

Remember all those people who warned that high valuations meant low future returns? Remember how they were ridiculed as the market made new highs? Well, stocks have not appreciated a bit in the last 14 months, index investors just collecting dividends. Which works out to a pretty puny return, doesn’t it? In other words, exactly what the valuation scolds predicted.

Broad Market Top 10 – 3 Month Returns

BROAD MARKET ETFS

 

MOMENTUM ASSET ALLOCATION MODEL

SPDR Sector Returns – 3 Month Returns

spdr sector returns

SPDR SECTOR ROTATION MODEL

Country Returns Top 10 – 3 Month Returns

COUNTRY RETURNS

Commodity Returns Top 10 – 3 Month Returns

commodity returns

Bond Returns Top 10 – 3 Month Returns

bond returns

Stock Valuation Update