A Key Reversal?
If we close on or near the low today, we will have printed what is known in candlestick charting as shooting star. I don’t put a lot of faith in technical analysis but this pattern and its reverse, called a hammer, are the most predictive technical patterns I’ve seen in my long career. The shooting .. read more
The Hubris Of The Bulls
Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall. Proverbs 16:18 I spend a good portion of my time trying to figure out the mood of the market. That isn’t just so I can bet against it although that is the proper strategy at times. John Maynard Keynes likened the fluctuation of stock .. read more
Happy Mother’s Day Mr. Bernanke
In light of the current low interest rate environment, we are watching particularly closely for instances of “reaching for yield” and other forms of excessive risk-taking, which may affect asset prices and their relationships with fundamentals. It is worth emphasizing that looking for historically unusual patterns or relationships in asset prices can be useful even .. read more
Confessions Of A Gloomy Gus
I have recently been accused of being a paid up member of the gloom and doom club. Well, actually accused might be too strong; informed is probably more accurate. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about how these weekly missives might be perceived but based on recent feedback the perception out there seems .. read more
Central Banks, Inequality & Market Manipulation
The Pew Research Center last week released a report showing that from 2009 to 2011 the top 7% of American households (based on net worth) realized a 28% gain in wealth while the bottom 93% saw a 4% decline. In a statement of the blatantly obvious, Pew said the difference was a result of the .. read more
Deja Vu All Over Again?
Gold dropped 20%. Oil dropped over 10%. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index dropped 11%. The US Dollar rose. Last week? No, that’s what happened in the first week of July of 2008. Last week’s rout in the commodities markets was eerily similar to that week nearly 5 years ago when the first signs of the .. read more
Pot Meets Kettle
Late Friday the Treasury Department released its semi-annual report on global exchange rates or as I like to call it, the semi-annual report on why all other countries on planet earth should let their currencies rise against the UD Dollar. Or maybe the semi-annual report on how easy monetary policy by other countries’ central banks .. read more
We’re All Monetarists Now
Japan last week announced a radical plan to finally slay the deflation dragon that has stalked their economy for the last 25 years. The sheer magnitude of the BOJ’s program should put to rest once and for all whether monetary policy can truly work as the growth tonic that policy wonks such as Ben Bernanke .. read more
