Retail sales make up about a quarter of GDP, so an important monthly number. I saw a lot of headlines saying this was a disappointing number. But that isn't the case, the print was actually good. Sequentially, expectations were low for this print because September 2023 and October of 2022 were so strong. The sequential number was expected at -.3% [...]
For the first time since March we are seeing a positive correlation between bond yields and reverse repos sold by the Fed. The change started during the last week of October and has continued throughout November. The correlation in March coincided with bank failures, mainly Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. In between March and the end of October, the [...]
Small businesses continue to be pessimistic. The National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Index came in down .1 at 90.7. The survey measures opinions about business and economic conditions in October relative to September. This is the 22nd straight month that the index has been below 98, the 50 year historic average. The most cited reason for pessimism is they [...]
The trend for consumer sentiment is still higher off the lows in the summer of 2022. But I am concerned about that trend. This month's preliminary number is 60.4. That is 4 monthly declines in a row and a new 6-month low. Additionally, inflation expectations ticked up to 4.4% from 4.2%. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only [...]
Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of the individual expressing those opinions. This [...]
Sales of durable goods at wholesalers remains in decline versus a year ago. The drop is from professional equipment (computers and software) and minerals and metals. Non-durable has returned to growth. The growth is not broad but mostly about petroleum and to a lesser extent, drugs. Durable goods' inventories remain high while non-durable goods inventories have dipped just below the [...]
Banks continue to tighten lending standards across all sectors. This has eased a bit from the July survey. Banks continue to widen spreads across all sectors. The percentage of banks widening spreads has also eased a tad. Banks are not seeing increasing demand for loans. I'm just posting survey results for C&I loans, the graph is very similar for commercial [...]
Trade is still in decline but conditions are improving. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in [...]
Our last post had the Q4 nowcast at 1.2% after a terrible ISM number and a bit of slowing of construction. After seeing pretty good employment numbers, durable goods orders, auto sales and ISM services activity, the Nowcast is up 2.1% growth. The biggest change is the expectation for the consumer improved. There were also small improvements in expectations for [...]
Wall street cheered the fact that we added fewer jobs (150,000) than expected (179,000) in October. This was a welcome relief after the hot September number that was revised down from 336,000 to 279,000. The Goods economy actually lost 11,000 jobs. The culprit here was motor vehicles and parts which was -33,000 on the month. The Services economy gained 110,000 [...]
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