Jeffrey P. Snider

The Greater the Stock Bubble, the Less Monetary Theory Holds

The actual total accumulated balance for margin debt in reported stock accounts fell in July from June’s record amount. But even with a decline in stock-related debt investors moved even further toward complacency, as declines in free credit and available cash more than outpaced the drop in margin. As a result, net worth has never .. read more

Durable Goods Are ‘Better’ Only in Narrow Focus

Factoring the record pace of Boeing’s distortions on durable goods, the series has picked up in the past two months after major and large upward revisions to June’s estimates. The increase in growth encompasses nearly all of the subsegments, as new orders and shipments for both durable goods (ex transportation) and nondefense capital goods (ex .. read more

The Fed Replaces the Unemployment Rate

In the rush to make QE’s taper and the follow-on “forward guidance” appear more data-related than of due concerns about the structural (and ultimately philosophical) flaws in the economy, the regressionists of the Federal Reserve have come up with more regressions. The problem was always Ben Bernanke’s rather careless benchmarking to the unemployment rate. In .. read more

What’s Behind New Home Sales

New home sales rose on a year-over-year basis, but the adjusted figures suggest that says more about softness in July 2013 than strength in July 2014. Whatever the case may actually be, the seasonally-adjusted rate of home sales has been quite disappointing after the “surge” post-winter. In fact, that bounce has been all but revised .. read more

‘Inflation’ May Be Noise But It’s Biting Hard Dollar Figures

Economists and policymakers continue to count on a second quarter surge in economic activity to ignite momentum for the rest of the year. The first revision to Q2 GDP comes on Thursday, so that will be the first test of the thesis. Given the inordinate volatility in the data set GDP could conceivably amount to .. read more

Gold, Bonds and Global Repositioning

There is a growing bid for safety in almost every corner of the globe at this moment, save for a few outliers. Even the 10-year JGP sits at 50 bps today despite the spike in consumer inflation engineered by the Bank of Japan’s QQE. Of course, with BoJ buying up almost everything in sight, that .. read more

They Used to Deny Bubbles Even Existed

Shorter version on secular stagnation and Jackson Hole equivocation on QE’s end: “We had to blow bubbles because that’s the only way to get the economy to grow, and now we have to start thinking about the inevitable consequences of that.” As does the bond market. There is nothing yet, however, to break the rationalization .. read more

Stagnation Confirmation

Janet Yellen has essentially confirmed QE’s demise; good riddance. Unfortunately, I don’t think that is the final end of QE in America, just as it hasn’t been the end time after time in Japan (and perhaps now Europe treading down the same ill-received road). What’s interesting is really watching these central bankers talk themselves in .. read more