201412.18
2
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Switzerland ‘Fights’ The Russian Problem, But Russia’s Problem Is As Brazil

Indonesia has been here before, playing a key role in fomenting the Asian “flu” in 1997 and 1998. As it turned out, the slide in the rupiah last year, caught up in the taper drama of US “dollar” tightening, was just the initial phase of what looks to be shaping up as a protracted “dollar”…

201412.17
1
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Woe the ‘Dollar’

It seems Charles Dickens had a flair for 21st century economics all the way back in the 19th century. Writing in his book Little Dorrit (thanks to W Krauss for the reminder) he observed that credit systems tended to be, “…a person who can’t pay, gets another person who can’t pay, to guarantee that he…

201412.17
1
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Home Construction And The Legacy Channel

The primary monetary channel for “stimulating demand” has traditionally fallen through real estate. Mortgage finance is the largest private source of financialism, reaching directly to people’s personal economy. The price appreciation of houses and the availability of mortgage credit are seen by orthodox economics as the basis for marginal “demand” changes in a theoretical philosophy…

201412.17
2
0

Finally Some Inflationary ‘Demand’

It may not be Japan that falls victim first to currency collapse, as Russia is poised on the brink of 1998-style disaster. The nature of inflation in Russia right now is the basis for orthodox economics and its proposition under rational expectations theory. In fact, Russians at this very moment are “proving” the theory: Russian…

201412.16
2
0

How We Got Here

The answer to every economic problem is one version of statism or another. If monetarism doesn’t succeed in “pump priming” with credit and inflation “stimulus” then surely the fiscal side will with “automatic stabilizers” and indiscriminate government expansion. These two grand economic strategies are often separated as if they are distinct sets of disparate theory;…

201412.16
0
0

TIC Confirmation of October

With the latest TIC data in hand it looks more and more like “dollar” problems started in the interior and spread outward. What I mean by that is eurodollar banks were the first to see or cause disruption which radiated outward into other currencies and credit systems. That would seem to confirm (for me, anyway)…

201412.16
0
0

True To Its Word, PBOC Confuses Economists’ Bubble Expectations

It is really amazing how condensed events have become once the economic and financial world shifted off its axis in August 2007. What used to be conventional wisdom about monetary affairs before then has long since been forgotten to the point that “emergency” measures that appeared in the months thereafter now pass for “normal.” However,…

201412.16
0
0

Supply Indeed

After months of hearing about how the fracking “miracle” is totally, fully and comprehensively responsible for the drop in oil prices there is finally penetrating reality. After the continued disruption in the Chinese economy as well as the close onset of recession in Europe, plus full-blown recession in Japan and Brazil, all that is left…

201412.15
4
0

No ‘Dollar’ Resolution

The growing sense of an economic cliff is based on three major factors, all of them in massive markets as opposed to manipulated and ill-suited statistics. The most obvious are oil prices and the UST curve (and related curve mechanics) as they have turned to prices and shapes not seen since the worst of the…