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About Jeffrey P. Snider

Give us a call at 1-888-777-0970 or via email at info@alhambrapartners.com to discuss how his unique approach informs our investment decisions. We'd be happy to discuss our investment strategies and provide a complimentary portfolio review.

Take Your Pick of PMI’s Today, But It’s Not Really An Either/Or

By |2020-03-04T17:36:26-05:00March 4th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Take your pick, apparently. On the one hand, IHS Markit confirmed its flash estimate for the US economy during February. Late last month the group had reported a sobering guess for current conditions. According to its surveys of both manufacturers and service sector companies, the system stumbled badly last month, the composite PMI tumbling to 49.6 from 53.3 in January. [...]

The Greenspan Moon Cult

By |2020-03-04T15:27:59-05:00March 4th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Taking another look at what I wrote about repo and the latest developments yesterday, it may be worthwhile to spend some additional time on the “why” as it pertains to so much determined official blindness, an unshakeable devotion to otherwise easily explained lunar events. The short version: monetary authorities as well as the “experts” describe almost perfectly risk averse behavior [...]

An (In)Opportune Moment To Review What September Repo Might Have Been Rehearsing

By |2020-03-03T19:22:21-05:00March 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When you focus exclusively on bank reserves, even when the answer is staring you in the face you just can’t appreciate it or decipher the implications. Nearly six months later, they still don’t know what happened in the repo market last September. By “they” I mean, of course, the Federal Reserve including all the presumably technically proficient operators at its [...]

Bonds Don’t Go Easy on ‘Easing’

By |2020-03-02T19:27:45-05:00March 2nd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s interesting what the eurodollar futures curve has done today. Over the past several weeks, of course, the curve has collapsed though with much more focused buying at the front end of it. That’s understandable given the common scenario being priced in – that the Fed will reluctantly be forced into sizeable rate cuts very soon. In fact, the current [...]

China’s First Virus-Filled Economic Data May Not Be All That Helpful

By |2020-03-02T12:21:30-05:00March 2nd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were only two possibilities and both related to their release. Either the Communist Chinese government was going to delay them, or would just say, screw it, everyone knows they’re going to be bad so let ‘em fly. There weren’t any questions about the data itself. Sure enough, the first glimpse at China’s economy in its full virus effects was [...]

The COLLATERAL-17 Virus?

By |2020-02-28T19:49:11-05:00February 28th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With interest rates tumbling all over the world, gold should be killing it. Instead, gold is getting killed. The major correlation for this precious metal has been the bond market, falling yields. And that makes intuitive sense; gold as a hedge pays no interest, but if competing safety instruments like UST’s end up paying up a lot less then gold [...]

It Always Goes Back To Income

By |2020-02-28T16:44:45-05:00February 28th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It’s really not hard to appreciate why markets are freaking out right now. The economic narrative is, and has been, all wrong. Jay Powell says that faraway overseas pressures had taken just a little off what had been awesome economic growth. Despite what had become an obvious drag on trade and manufacturing, the unemployment rate, to Powell, spoke softly to [...]

The Black Curve

By |2020-02-27T19:19:25-05:00February 27th, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The WTI futures curve is supposed to be in backwardation, though the word “supposed” is a loaded term. Backwardation is more of an ideal condition than one you might find most often in practice. There’s almost as much contango as backwardation in the futures market’s history. It’s not so easy to balance all the complexities that are spun through oil [...]

That’s The Thing About These Things, Time and Bondholders

By |2020-02-26T19:11:54-05:00February 26th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

That’s the thing about these eurodollar cycles; they aren’t short. We’re conditioned on the belief that the business cycle is, or at least the recession piece. According to convention, the economy peaks and within a relatively short period of time it falls apart. The shock and its very immediate aftermath. The lengths of time involved here in the post-crisis era [...]

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