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About Jeffrey P. Snider

Give us a call at 1-888-777-0970 or via email at info@alhambrapartners.com to discuss how his unique approach informs our investment decisions. We'd be happy to discuss our investment strategies and provide a complimentary portfolio review.

Decoupling Reborn

By |2018-07-19T13:09:19-04:00July 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The term "decoupling" was invented in early 2008 really because of oil prices. It was widely believed that though the US economy might stumble that year (because of nothing other than subprime mortgages, naturally) the rest of the world would be insulated from any fallout. EM economies like China's were immune from such folly, they said. Like every other economic [...]

TIC Confirms Pretty Much Everything

By |2018-07-18T17:39:55-04:00July 18th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Russian ruble has fared far and away much better than its EM peers. Compared to something like the Brazilian real, there is no comparison. The ruble has been relatively steady following an initial drop in April with the imposition of sanctions. April 19 came and went, and while that date is displayed prominently across all the key currencies it [...]

Falling Starts

By |2018-07-18T15:32:04-04:00July 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Home construction estimates are notoriously variable. They can change oftentimes by a substantial amount on a month-by-month basis, and the numbers are just as frequently subject to serious revisions in the short run. Still, we have to note when there are big moves even in these high frequency series, though keeping in mind no definitive conclusions are available from them [...]

Is Subprime Contained?

By |2018-07-18T11:55:51-04:00July 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Jerome Powell will make his fourth required appearance of 2018 on Capitol Hill today. The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 required a great many things when it was passed forty years ago, among them a degree of forced monetary competence to be at least displayed publicly by the Federal Reserve. The charade of Congressional testimony is what [...]

Gold, Dollar, and Repo: Who Cares About Taper, or QE?

By |2018-07-17T18:49:40-04:00July 17th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s funny how these things work. He didn’t actually say the word “taper”, at least not when the frenzy first started. The very idea of the “taper tantrum” was the media’s work, the easy slogan that could be used as shorthand for the conventional explanation. The economy was improving, everyone was told and easily believed, therefore what was supposed to [...]

Sentimental Inflationary Reflation

By |2018-07-17T15:36:02-04:00July 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sentiment surveys such as the ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index are not strictly about current levels of production. Even if they were, they still wouldn’t be as straightforward as is presented. Rather, the ISM index or any PMI for that matter is an amalgam of variables ostensibly displaying how economic agents feel these variables are affecting them in any given [...]

How To Totally Misinterpret Deflationary Impulses

By |2018-07-16T18:36:51-04:00July 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sometimes it pays to wait. Better to be sure than premature. In January 2014, the journal Central Banking handed out its inaugural awards. Among the recipients was Paul Volcker who was bestowed a lifetime achievement prize. The initial Governor of the Year honorific, something like a central banker MVP, went to Mario Draghi of the ECB. He graciously accepted in [...]

Pay Attention To Nominal Not Real China GDP

By |2018-07-16T16:35:36-04:00July 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the second half of 2015, how dicey did it really get in China? It’s difficult to assess going by something like real GDP given how notorious the Chinese have become for hitting their growth targets no matter what. But for those two quarters we can infer a whole bunch of nasty problems by the difference between real GPD growth [...]

Retail Sales Still In The Green

By |2018-07-16T12:01:24-04:00July 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It would be easier if we could just know the right amount of oil futures backwardation. The literal answer for the question of what’s the correct level is the curve’s shape at any given moment in time. That’s a little too close to the theory of perfectly efficient markets for me. Whatever it may be, or could be, the WTI [...]

A Derivatives View On Q1 That Might Help Explain Q2 (and after)

By |2018-07-13T18:52:28-04:00July 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Morgan Stanley is bit more complicated as a derivatives dealer than the Big 4. Those other banks hold most of their books at their bank subsidiaries. In this case, the term bank actually means something, the legal distinction of a depository institution. Each of the four banks, JPM, C, GS, and BofA, have a holding company umbrella over them like [...]

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