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About Jeffrey P. Snider

Give us a call at 1-888-777-0970 or via email at info@alhambrapartners.com to discuss how his unique approach informs our investment decisions. We'd be happy to discuss our investment strategies and provide a complimentary portfolio review.

Scrooge’s Income ‘L’

By |2018-03-29T11:55:25-04:00March 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We keep revisiting the concept of “residual seasonality” quite purposefully, even though on its face it is an absurd one. It is in every way emblematic of the current state of Economics and the commentary derived from it. Residual seasonality is the kind of delusion that has become commonplace, a coping mechanism for an economy that continues to be very [...]

Stocks’ Price to Eventually Ratio

By |2018-03-28T12:06:12-04:00March 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised upward fourth quarter 2017 Real GDP. The second estimate had been revised lower to 2.50458% (continuously compounded annual rate of change) from the advanced estimate. The third and final calculation raises the quarterly increase to 2.84707%. None of the changes are substantial. Accompanying these revisions are the BEA’s first assessments for Corporate Profits [...]

Chart of the Week: JPY, not Payrolls

By |2018-03-23T18:01:59-04:00March 23rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The biggest risk to the bond bear case, that expressed by Bill Gross, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Ray Dalio, is, ironically, stocks. Convention has it that rising interest rates are bad for them, but what are falling stock prices for UST’s? Historically speaking, the introduction of risk and even liquidations is bond positive. When the last jobs report came out, Bill [...]

Some Helpful Swaps Geography

By |2018-03-23T16:49:21-04:00March 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation hysteria in some places hasn’t just faded, it has disappeared almost entirely. The old saying is that shooting stars burn out the fastest. One of the hottest systems was in Europe. The ECB, we were told, had done it. Even though QE hadn’t achieved anything of substance in its first or second year, the third was apparently the charm. [...]

Harvey and Irma Passed, Back To Same Procyclical Housing

By |2018-03-23T12:19:49-04:00March 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why does monetary policy pay so much attention to housing? The easy answer over the last twelve years is the bubble. It was hard not to, though for a very long time policymakers did attempt a systemic disavowal. But beyond the middle 2000’s housing mania, central banks have had a very keen interest in real estate from the beginning. The [...]

Just A Few More Pips

By |2018-03-22T17:30:40-04:00March 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On Page 1, Chapter 1 of the Central Banker Crisis Handbook it states very clearly, “do not make it worse.” It’s something like the Hippocratic oath where monetary authorities must first assess what their actions might do to an already fragile system. It’s why they take great pains to try and maintain composure, appearing calm and orderly while conflagration rages [...]

If Powell Is Angry And Disgusted, That’s A Small Positive

By |2018-03-27T20:40:17-04:00March 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to one research company, new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was disgusted and angry at his press conference yesterday. The firm, Prattle, employed facial recognition software to track Powell’s expressions throughout his inaugural press conference. By their count, he was disgusted 36 times, angry 41 times, and expressed contempt another five. Powell conveyed joy on a mere four instances. [...]

No Hawks Nor Doves, Just Dollar

By |2018-03-21T18:36:58-04:00March 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On January 24, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin either misspoke or let slip a Freudian sort of wish. Extolling a weak rather than strong dollar, it was seemingly a total break from longstanding official US policy. It’s not really a policy anyone takes too seriously, if for no other reason than the dollar isn’t really a part of the Treasury. Still, [...]

Boom Bifurcation In Housing and Real Estate

By |2018-03-21T12:47:42-04:00March 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How much growth is enough? It’s a pretty simple question that upon close examination leaves no easy answers. This is a problem that has plagued economists since there were economists. Recognizing very real dangers on both sides, there is as much trouble about “too much” as “too little.” The purpose of the modern central bank, then, is to moderate and [...]

The Blind Interviewing The Blind; Or, Bubble Time

By |2018-03-20T19:30:51-04:00March 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

At the end of last month, the Brookings Institute hosted a conversation where one of their most distinguished current scholars introduced and interviewed one of their newest. The former was former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke welcoming the latter, former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. Listening to them talk was a total delight (thanks T. Tatteo for that), particularly for [...]

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