The first quarter just seemed to zoom by this year, bringing continued optimism (or, animal spirits if you prefer) to the stock market and leaving even higher valuations in its wake. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index returned an impressive 6.07% for the quarter, on the tail of the previous five consecutive quarters of positive performance. The second quarter is [...]
“I don't understand you,' said Alice. ‘It’s dreadfully confusing!' 'That's the effect of living backwards,' the Queen said kindly: 'it always makes one a little giddy at first--' 'Living backwards!' Alice repeated in great astonishment. 'I never heard of such a thing!' '--but there's one great advantage in it, that one's memory works both ways.' ‘I'm sure mine only works [...]
“I've heard there are troubles of more than one kind; some come from ahead, and some come from behind. But I've brought a big bat. I'm all ready, you see; now my troubles are going to have troubles with me!” Dr. Seuss And so begins a new year with a new U.S. administration, the question of whether President Trump “brought [...]
“Optimism means better than reality; pessimism means worse than reality. I'm a realist.” Margaret Atwood, Author The end of 2016 is right around the corner, and what an interesting year it has been. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is up year-to-date, through yesterday, by 10.67% (13.04% including dividends) and domestic intermediate taxable bonds as measured by Barclays Intermediate U.S. [...]
“There is one day that is ours. Thanksgiving Day is the one day that is purely American.” - O. Henry (author) With the election thankfully behind us and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up over 2% since then, investors are possibly at an even more challenging risk/reward crossroads than before. The resolution of a highly contentious election and rhetoric regarding [...]
“…don’t speak too soon for the wheel’s still in spin, and there’s no telling who that it’s naming. For the loser now will be later to win, cause the times they are a-changing” Bob Dylan (Lyrics) As November 8th approaches, our newly minted Noble Prize winner, Bob Dylan’s song, “The Times They are A-Changin” is right on the money. At [...]
“Should I stay or should I go now? If I go there will be trouble. An' if I stay it will be double…this indecision's buggin' me” The Clash (Lyrics) Summer vacations are over, all are back to work and volatility has returned to the markets. As we wait for another decision from Janet Yellen, (will she stay or will she [...]
“Remind people that profit is the difference between revenue and expense. This makes you look smart.” Scott Adams (Cartoonist) Surprise, surprise, the second quarter earnings season is again producing better than expected overall results. Analysts’ earnings growth estimates for the S&P 500 are now somewhere around -3.5%, an improvement from the previous - 5.5% - the earnings contraction is [...]
Anticipation for comparable year-over-year earnings growth is building…but not necessarily for the current earnings reporting season that is just beginning. The decline of approximately 6.7% in year-over-year EPS comparisons in the first quarter is expected to be the bottom of the four quarters of consecutive earnings declines for the S&P 500. And, although earnings season for the second quarter has [...]
“Begin With the End in Mind” Stephen R. Covey, Author Although, Stephen Covey was not referring to investments when he assigned this declaration as Habit #2 in his book, “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People”, it seems applicable to the anticipatory nature of portfolio management. “The ability to envision in your mind what you cannot at present see [...]
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