201607.29
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About Those ‘Strong’ Consumers

In advance of today’s GDP release, it was expected that the Q2 estimate would be around 2.6% (it was only 1.2%). The major reason for the anticipated rebound was “strong” consumers, a theme that has been a part of the dominant economic narrative since 2014 introduced the phantom “best jobs market in decades.” No matter…

201607.29
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Rough GDP

The advance estimate for second quarter GDP came in lower than expected. At just 1.211%, the anticipated rebound from the dreadful winter failed to materialize in any significant way. Worse, benchmark revisions now suggest that GDP has been around 1% for three straight quarters; Q4 2015 was revised down from 1.377% to just 0.869%; Q1…

201607.28
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Template For Evaluating GDP

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its advance estimate for Q2 2016 GDP tomorrow, along with benchmark revisions that may render this entire discussion moot. By all expectations, GDP is believed to have rebounded from Q1’s 1.07% predicated on little more than that April through June was not nearly as bad as January…

201607.28
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What Is Truly Left of the ‘Recovery’

Oil prices are like an unfolding train wreck, as it is nearly impossible to look away now.  Day after day, not only are spot prices down but the entire WTI curve is now moving lower in almost perfect unison.  Prices have dropped six days in a row, more than $4, and at just above $41…

201607.27
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What The FOMC Has To Keep Repeating Matters, Not What It Changes

As usual, everyone is focused on the wrong part of the FOMC statement. There is already a lot being made about the one sentence inserted as “hawkish” sentiment that puts the economy, supposedly, back on its fruitful, “full employment” track. In a clear sigh of relief undoubtedly in relation to the scary May payroll report,…

201607.27
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The Ritual of Summer

Domestic oil inventory rose in the latest week, updates from the US EIA show. That build broke a streak of nine consecutive weekly draws dating back to mid-May. It is not unusual for oil inventory to rise and fall in various weeks, but given the mechanics of oil prices of late there is an atypical…

201607.27
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Evolving Characteristics Don’t Seem To Alter The Ritual of Summer

On February 6, 2008, oil prices (WTI) dropped to $87.16, the lowest price since the prior October. Oil had been rising as the market misunderstood and dramatically mispriced what was going on; buying on the idea of monetary policy accommodation in growing intensity, while at the same time not factoring the hidden monetary destruction that…

201607.27
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Durable Goods Start To Suggest Summer

The seasonal spring rebound seems to have reset all the economic narratives. When economic accounts, along with financial markets, started to seriously slide toward the end of last year, for the first time even the mainstream began to admit, grudgingly, that weakness wasn’t just some remote happenstance that was a minor nuisance to an otherwise…