201505.21
2
0

Rebound Gone, Now Attention To Below

Sticking with the sentiment factor for the economy, or at least in mostly unhelpful measurements for it, it is interesting that most of the manufacturing and business sentiment indices are failing to find the FOMC’s “transitory” economic nature. The most helpful so far has been the Chicago Business Barometer, but that merely ticked above 50…

201505.21
0
0

Where Sentiment And Spending Parted

If there were an economic recovery in the US then we would certainly find it on the fiscal budgets of the various states. You cannot spend or even generate income anymore without taking incidence of a taxable transaction. So if the US economy has been doing what the FOMC says it has, then the taxman…

201505.20
7
0

The Definitive Monetary Policy Statement

To preserve any idea that the US is not heading into recession, the FOMC is now wholly reliant on statistical processes within the BEA’s use of the Census Bureau’s updated ARIMA-X13 modeling system. It is amazing to see this policy body that once proclaimed, unequivocally and forcefully, that it could perform the monetary equivalent of…

201505.20
0
0

Curtailing All Notions of Recovery

The Japanese have been encouraged today by the notion that their economy might actually be finding a recovery – as economists see it. As with so many other things in this QE period, the very definition of recovery seems to be up for debate in sharp contrast to accepted economic standards not all that long…

201505.20
3
0

Where Is This Housing Rebound?

These may be desperate times indeed, where every small piece of anything not wholly dismal is singled out as the indicator that either the worst has passed or it never was. I am simply at a loss to describe housing construction figures in such unequivocally glowing terms. For the most part, construction activity hasn’t deviated…

201505.19
4
0

We Are Going To Find Out If An Immense Asset Bubble Can Be Carefully And Purposefully Deleveraged

Some people are getting very nervous about China, and as usual that stems from a misreading of the Chinese intentions. This is not to say that one should not be concerned at all, but it is much better to be concerned for the right reasons in order to find a more suitable line of inquiry…

201505.19
6
0

QE Did It

I feel almost obligated at this point to present UST volatility whenever referring to funding markets. Hopefully that “duty” will subside in the near term, but as I suggested yesterday this week is setting up to be much like last week. When I wrote that, however, I didn’t mean to propose a literal copy from…

201505.19
5
0

‘Dollar’ Change Starting In March May Be Just Buying Time

Given the dramatic inflection in “dollar” behavior surrounding the March 18 FOMC meeting there wasn’t much surprising in the latest TIC figures for that month. If anything was complicated it was due solely to the fact that this change occurred mid-month. For the most part, the heavy “tightening” trend that began anew after January was…

201505.18 0

Kept Afloat With Nothing But Happy Thoughts, Is It Any Wonder The Sinking?

The Edmund Fitzgerald departed the Burlington Northern Railroad dock in Superior, Wisconsin on November 9, 1975, at about 2:20 in the afternoon. She was carrying a load of taconite pellets to Zug Island in the Detroit River, a rather routine run for this massive ore hauler on the Great Lakes. Only a few minutes after…

201505.18
8
0

Repo Irregularity and UST Volatility, Con’t

Another day, another day of volatility in UST trading with the 10s trading up 9 bps in yield from Friday’s close. It is, so far, an almost exact carbon copy of the start to last week, including the 13:30 selloff. Repetition is indicative of systemic factor(s) rather than some kind of random variation (or a…