Economy

Ugly China’s American Mirror

By |2018-08-14T11:46:26+00:00August 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Yesterday, we spotlighted Brazil’s economy as perhaps a leading indicator for where things stand. Today, it’s China’s turn. Neither are very encouraging. Both offer instead only growing concern. The reason isn’t just the possibility of the world economy rolling over in 2018, rather it’s from what level any deceleration might have begun. Despite the characterization [...]

Overshadowing The Multi-year CPI High

By |2018-08-13T18:15:42+00:00August 13th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Overshadowed by the “dollar” last week was the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS reported the US CPI had increased in July 2018 by the highest rate since December 2011. Running at 2.95% year-over-year, consumer prices accelerated a little from June’s pace. Not only that, the CPI’s core rate of inflation sped up to 2.35%. [...]

Unwelcome August

By |2018-08-13T16:58:51+00:00August 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

There is just something about August. It is irresistible, apparently, in all the wrong ways. For starters, there are big ones and small ones but somehow they all line up against liquidity and plentiful eurodollar money. In the former class there was, of course, August 9, 2007, August 9, 2011, and August 10, 2015. Even [...]

The Smoke Thickens In China

By |2018-08-13T11:54:23+00:00August 13th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A major part of any yield curve is inflation expectations. Nominal growth particularly toward the longer end of curves sets the agenda for trading. But further out there are several confluences that may cause distortions. For Economists, these are conundrums. There are times, however, when curve dynamics remain pretty simple. These are not usually the [...]

August 9, 2018; Debut of Eurodollar University Season 2

By |2018-08-08T16:34:15+00:00August 8th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On August 9, 2007, the eurodollar system cracked. Over the eleven years since that day, the crack has only become enlarged. No amount of QE nor the bank reserves those produced has been able to patch the system back up into functioning condition. The thing lingers on, limping forward through small ups and more serious [...]

What Chinese Trade Shows Us About SHIBOR

By |2018-08-08T12:35:57+00:00August 8th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why is SHIBOR falling from an economic perspective? Simple again. China’s growth both on its own and as a reflection of actual global growth has stalled. And in a dynamic, non-linear world stalled equals trouble. Going all the way back to early 2017, there’s been no acceleration (and more than a little deceleration). The reflation [...]

The Door Is Open

By |2018-08-07T18:36:11+00:00August 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

During the decade of the seventies, there was an opening. The Bretton Woods system had largely failed in 1960, but gold exchange lingered onward until August of 1971. Long before President Nixon acted in defaulting on US obligations, however, global currency liquidity had increasingly been supplied through other means. Those “other” means was an offshore [...]

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