201507.06
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‘Dollar’ Fault

With Greece eliciting full uncertainty across the global financial complex, it isn’t unsurprising to see “dollar” proxies indicating tightness in almost uniform fashion. There isn’t as much a cascade, yet, as there had been in early October and early December last year, but the movement has finally coalesced. The “dollar” world had begun what looks…

201507.05
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Greece Calls Europe’s Bluff

The analysts streaming across my screen last week all had the same opinion – Greece will vote yes, accept Europe’s terms and stay in the Euro. Well, as I write this, the early polls prove, if nothing else, that one should beware of experts bearing consensus opinions. According to the headlines at all the major…

201507.02
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The New Nobility, By Right of Equation

As the third age of socialist economics makes its final turn toward the rather lackluster if not disastrous homestretch, the inquiries are starting toward figuring out where it all went wrong. That is as much natural and expected, but what is the most significant is that such efforts are already pared and narrowly constrained. There…

201507.02
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One Of These PMI’s Is Not Like The Others

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was up to 53.5 which was the best monthly showing this year. That has been taken as inarguable insistence that the US factory sector is doing what economists expect, even though 53.5 is significantly below both June 2014 and the 12-month average (which includes four months beginning February below…

201507.02
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Factory Orders Fall Now 8%; Economists Unconvinced

While the payroll report commands almost all attention, the view from factory orders is simply much more significant. Even if we accept that payroll growth is steady at something greater than 200k per month, that is still at least two steps removed from actual economic activity as is intended from that same orthodox framework. Jobs…

201507.02
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Pretty Ugly For Employment; Showing Slump

If last month was another perfect payroll month, June was at least its opposite. While the Establishment Survey advanced by more than 200k yet again, the average monthly gains has dipped significantly of late (more on that below). Outside of that, however, it was ugly everywhere. All the upward volatility in the rest of the…

201507.02
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China’s Stock Bubble Complication

The Shanghai Composite Index for shares on China’s somewhat stock market peaked on June 12, a Friday before a weekend in which every major analyst and China-watcher expected the PBOC to unleash rate cuts. It wasn’t a very good week in terms of economic data for China, which is likely why the call-to-action for the…

201506.29
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Anecdotes on Eurodollar ‘Money Supply'; A Final Supplement

While this was meant to be anecdotal, giving the whole rise and fall of eurodollars an actual feel through actual published bank results, the more abstract collections of the derivatives world conforms very well with those singular sketches in JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. The BIS, for example, publishes its estimates for the give and…

201506.29
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Anecdotes on Eurodollar ‘Money Supply'; Part 4

The early 1990’s saw the S&L’s fail on wholesale means but also to be displaced entirely by the GSE’s and securitizations of also wholesale monetarism. Indeed, when LTCM failed in 1998 rather than recognize the glaring limitations evident in the systemic pathology the Fed looked at it the way it wanted, preserving itself at the…