Depth in Home Sales

Existing home sales re-attained the 5 million SAAR level again in June, but that remains well behind last year’s trajectory. In other words, the bounce in sales after the most recent trough is not nearly as robust as predicted when it was simply assumed that the housing market would just revert back to 2013’s trend. .. read more

Speculating On The Gold Supply

What follows here, in the interest of full disclosure, is nothing more than speculative conjecture on my part. This is due mostly to the opacity that dominates gold “markets” and trading oddities that follow from it. My thoughts here are based on gut instinct about recent observations, but that is about as much to solidify .. read more

It’s Not Coming

Entrenched narratives die extremely hard, with all due respect to John McClane’s [Bruce Willis] aging franchise, and I cannot remember something so cemented as the recovery idea this year. That is really saying something considering that each and every New Year’s Day after the trough of the Great Recession has brought out the same exact .. read more

A Change In Policy?

The Committee recognizes that low interest rates may provide incentives for some investors to “reach for yield,” and those actions could increase vulnerabilities in the financial system to adverse events. While prices of real estate, equities, and corporate bonds have risen appreciably and valuation metrics have increased, they remain generally in line with historical norms. .. read more

Treasury Solicits QE Absolution

I have to say that I am more than a little amused by the “news” that the US Treasury Dept. is asking for comment from the primary dealers about the recent repo fails. As Bloomberg put it succinctly, “The Treasury also asked the dealers to explain the causes for an increase recently in “fails-to-deliver” in .. read more

IBM Extends Slump, Cheers Analysts

The speed at which standards for judgment and analysis have eroded has been slow enough over the past few years as to be nearly imperceptible. There is, of course, a tremendous difference between a company analyst and a macro observer, but that does not necessarily and directly lead to special divergences. In fact, most of .. read more

Another Nail In The Payroll Coffin?

There are a few more pieces of economic accounts to put together before the disaster of a first quarter can be left behind (if only until the next set of revisions). A major part of the economic picture is derived from productivity, as that feature defines sustainability and ties together labor growth with productive investment. .. read more

Adjusted Home Construction Falls But ‘Significance’ Unclear

On a seasonally-adjusted basis residential home construction was beyond ugly.  There were widespread declines in June from May’s levels that more than suggest a lack of weather bounce (not unlike a lot of other indications).  However, there is more than a little caution with housing data as it remains one of the most “noisy” series .. read more

On July 17th, 2014, posted in: Economy, Markets, Real Estate by