201410.31
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‘Dollar’ Tight Again, Though Maybe Wrong Fed Read

It began more than a week before the FOMC meeting, as eurodollars again anticipated what the mood would be surrounding whatever the FOMC might say. “Dollar” conditions had run down significantly where the entire curve shifted lower (looser) for the first two weeks of October as doubts grew about the economy in the US and…

201410.31
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Stimulus

Under the headling, Kuroda Surprises With Stimulus Boost as Japan Struggles, is the following summation: Today’s decision comes almost 19 months after Kuroda unleashed his initial asset-purchase plan, with the intention of doubling the monetary base. That move similarly drove up stocks and undercut the yen. Since then, a more competitive exchange rate has triggered…

201410.31
2
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At What Point Can We Actually Try Something Else?

The common refrain from any true believer in Communism (and even communism) is that it has never truly been tried. Forget the Soviet Union and those stuck behind the Iron Curtain, they were instead a corruptive manifestation of Stalinism that betrayed the ideals of Lenin, Marx and the “true” revolution. Maoist China doesn’t apply either for…

201410.31
2
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QQE Is Clearly Destroying Japan, So BoJ Panics Into More

The precursor event of every hyperinflationary episode is not as conventional wisdom currently holds. Certainly there are conditions that are present in each and every one, including desperate fiscal imbalances that ultimately become expressed in growing monetarism, but the true cause that turns those troubling circumstances to total and complete wipeout and disaster is tunnel…

201410.30
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WSJ Changes Its Mind About GDP, But Not Its Conclusions?

Early this morning my good friend Fred Everett emailed me the Wall Street Journal’s take on GDP. They were, as you might expect, quite optimistic about what 3.5% implied toward future acceleration finally out of this seven-year depression: The U.S. economy expanded steadily again during the third quarter, a sign of sustained growth fueled by…

201410.30
3
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Beneath The Noise

Most of what accounts for GDP is nothing but noise, leaving only a few major indications about what the economy is doing (or not doing). Prior to 2008, that wasn’t much of a problem as GDP by and large seemed to correlate well with other estimations of economic progress, and even our own intuitive perceptions….

201410.29
5
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I Think The FOMC Meant Something Else Entirely

As if it needed further clarification, the FOMC has gone its own way publicly against pretty much everything else because there is no other course that could even possibly end Hollywood-style. The constant reference to “slack” in the labor market is what gives this away. A potential reduction in labor slack would mean emphasis on…

201410.29
1
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Crumbling Foundation of QE’s

In another piece of the puzzle ending the reign of Bernanke’s monetary influence, there remains deep dissatisfaction with the economy. Poll after poll just ahead of the coming midterms shows the economy as “somehow” the top concern. The discontent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll is palpable. Despite its fitful gains, seven in 10…

201410.29
1
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The Monetary ‘Evolution’ Hasn’t Been Televised

It might be a close race to decide which day of the month is the silliest, the Friday of the “jobs” report or the FOMC meeting (which are two-day events, but only the second day seems to count; and the FOMC meets every six weeks or so which means the Establishment Survey has a few…

201410.28
2
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PBOC’s Hong Kong Bypass?

I think there remains a lot of misunderstanding about global finance simply because very few people, including every economist I have seen, realize the systematic arrangement has drastically altered way beyond orthodox comprehension. The eurodollar system that replaced the gold standard has even itself morphed broadly in the past few decades (especially around 1995), and…