What Is Being Left Out of the ‘Inarguable’ Payroll Expansion Is Far More Important

With all due respect to durable goods, perhaps I was a bit too hasty in assigning it the moniker of most boring. There is certainly competition now, as the monthly payroll euphoria has become just as homogenous, curiously, and engrained enough where commentary can simply be copied and pasted from month-to-month. Most people probably will .. read more

Peeling Back More Layers

Following up with some more detail on yesterday’s GDP euphoria, a closer examination reveals that not much has changed beneath the headline refiguring. Again, I highly doubt the 3.9% (plus some rounding) survives further estimations, but that really doesn’t much matter at this point. Whether it ultimately arrives at 5% or 2% won’t change the .. read more

Chicago PMI and Marginal Growth

I normally do everything I can to avoid sentiment surveys, like the Chicago PMI (the Chicago Business Barometer to be specific), because they really are misleading without exact context. However, any large move like the one in July should bring at least some interest since outlier events are often the most informative. What may be .. read more

The Argued State of Labor and Wages

When the BLS’s Employment Cost Index fell to a two-year low last quarter (Q1 ’14) there were no expressions of fear over “deflation” or that the economy was growing weaker, instead mostly mentioning the intended aberration of supposedly everything. There were, in fact, very few pronouncements at all at the time. Yet, what a difference .. read more

Not Enough To Revise QE3 & 4 History

One of the major benefits to rewriting history, and “moving” growth from 2011 and 2012 into 2013, is that Bernanke’s QE3 & 4 scorecard looks a hell of a lot better. Unfortunately, it still isn’t enough of an inventory change to show acceleration, but it is, supposedly, far less of a direct abomination.   Click .. read more

This Needs To Stop

While commentary has already taken off with the latest GDP estimate, given recent history I am fully confident that GDP growth will not be 4%. What is taking place in the statistical bureaus is nothing like what we have ever seen before. The constant revisions, and major changes at that, can only have a deleterious .. read more

On July 30th, 2014, posted in: Economy, Markets by Tags: , , 4 Comment

Better To Risk Worse Recession; Recovery Compounding Matters Far More

In light of second quarter GDP’s imminent release and the explosion of commentary it will undoubtedly create, I thought it useful to promote a better context that includes all pertinent variables of analysis and judgment. As I said earlier today on CNBC with Rick Santelli, it is often overlooked that the US economy has been .. read more

It’s Never Enough

Not much needs to be said about Japan, as they continue to get what they wanted. While mainstream “news” outlets have been framing this as “not as bad as it could have been” based on the expectations of economists, that is an awfully thin, but familiar, basis for taking the “bright side.” What has been .. read more