If the labor market were slowing as the wider perspective of the payroll reports suggest, then it would make sense to find increasing difficulties even among the few bright spots in this otherwise anemic economy. Yesterday and earlier it was reported increasing signs of slowing in real estate, both construction and resales of homes (particularly dwindling inventory). In the past [...]
In the technical notes for the Employment Situation Report, the payroll numbers that everyone obsesses over in fine detail, the BLS still shows a 90% confidence interval at 1.6 standard deviations that works out to +/- 115k. That means that whatever number gets splashed onto every headline and worked into every major commentary piece isn’t really the number of payroll [...]
Total construction spending was essentially flat year-over-year in July 2016. Public construction at both the state and local and also the federal government levels declined more than 3% Y/Y. Excluding the public sector, private construction spending (NSA) was up just 3.9% in July for the second month in a row. That was the lowest increase since the housing rebound started [...]
Because of the linearity that is presumed a fact of cyclicality, economists and the media continue to be shocked that what seemed like improvement one month doesn’t mean much for the economy in the coming months. And so time and again we find where conditions appear to progress and are thus extrapolated into the long sought after rebound from “transitory” [...]
In 1991, economist Ronald H. Coase was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, colloquially referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics. His lecture that December given while collecting it was notable in good part not just for his contributions but rather how he saw why such contributions were actually necessary. As he said [...]
Jeffrey Snider: The Great Recession Wasn’t a Recession at All According to Alhambra Investment’s Jeffrey Snider, it was a depression. BUFFALO- In an exclusive conversation with Real Vision TV, Jeff Snider, head of global research and a chief investment strategist for Alhambra Investment Partners, reveals the real reason policy responses from central banks aren’t working. The investment researcher, who [...]
For October 2014, the ISM estimated that its Chicago Business Barometer was a blistering 66.2. Encompassing much of the Midwest and a good deal of auto and parts production, that level seemed to make sense. As any economist would say then, the US economy was on the verge of a breakout and according to the labor statistics maybe even one [...]
The most remarkable aspect of the WTI crude oil futures curve this month has been its amazing ability to maintain its shape no matter which direction or by how much. Previously, as “dollar” pressures either built or ebbed, the futures curve would either steepen at the front (liquidation pressure) or flatten toward more normal backwardation (easing of the “dollar” difficulties). [...]
The massive wildfires in Alberta earlier this year had a tremendously negative effect upon not just the oil sector but all of Canada. Not surprisingly, Canadian GDP released today was abysmal. Falling 1.6% in Q2, that was the worst quarter since 2009. Fortunately for the Bank of Canada who had been “stimulating” again since last July when it cut the [...]
Repo fails in the past two weeks (the week of August 17 the most current figures) were both more than $192 billion. Though that level is highly elevated, those were actually the fewest fails since mid-June, and the fewest in consecutive weeks since early May. The 8-week average remains about $245 billion, a noticeable increase from even last year’s “dollar” [...]
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