By all count of orthodox economics, the harmonization of “inflation” rates across the US, Europe, and China should not happen. While the former two might be more forgiving given close economic ties, the assumed vast differences with the Chinese economic framework (particularly PBOC operations) should prevent what can only be observed as a highly contagious global environment. With China’s CPI [...]
You couldn’t really call it a calming effect, as rates never truly settled down rather simply becoming less obviously meddlesome. At the September FOMC, the “dovish” sentiment that was apparently received brought LIBOR rates off their devastatingly devilish perch that had been building from all the way back in early July. As if it needed to be restated, that surge [...]
For most of the world’s inhabitants, so long as they reside connected to some form of modern economy inflation is an unwelcome event even in the smallest doses. Central banks have made it their very business to control it, or at least its form in consumer prices, in order that their assessment of the Great Depression might not be ever [...]
Last week’s survey data around the world was a bit more mixed than anyone would have liked, an obvious statement that yet deserves the emphasis. Europe, for instance, remains mired in a fog of zombie-like “growth” that is notable for both a distinct absence of QE’s promised impact and the related Japan-like steadiness that suggests nothing good about near and [...]
With the state of the “dollar” being what it is, including the devastating darkening afforded by negative swap spreads everywhere, it isn’t exactly surprising to find that primary dealers continue to hoard UST collateral. By September, dealers were reporting a net positive balance of all coupon holdings of nearly $60 billion. With everyone in the world predicting higher interest rates, [...]
The unrelenting economic decline in China is finally getting the attention of economists and the media as something more than a big problem “for them.” Imports declined by 18.8% in October after having contracted by 20.5% in August. On the export side, Chinese goods sent abroad fell 6.9% year-over-year in dollars which confirms that the contraction is not China’s alone [...]
Last week's employment report raised the odds of a December rate hike considerably and the consensus at this point seems to be that it is a done deal. The employment report was pretty good with the unemployment rate down to 5%, 271,000 jobs added and a pay hike to boot. Year over year average hourly earnings are now up 2.4%, [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 10/24/15 to 11/6/15 The economic data of the last two weeks stands in fairly sharp contrast to the markets' movements. Markets, particularly bonds and gold, are going all in, betting that this time Yellen & Co. have it right, that growth is really about to accelerate this time. From the end of the last FOMC meeting [...]
The deletion of “dollar” capacity in money dealing globally is not just a theoretical impugning upon asset prices alone. Corporate debt issuance has been obviously provoked to an increasingly smaller state. The numbers are starting to become serious, which may account for at least part of the economic misfortune that the Fed desperately wants the world to ignore. Where swap [...]
While the stock market had one of its best months in years, it was, like the jobs report, uncorroborated by almost everything else. The junk bond bubble, in particular, stands in sharp and stark refutation of whatever stocks might be incorporating, especially if that might be based upon assumptions of Yellen’s re-found backbone. Do or do not, corporate junk remains [...]
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