The Chinese lunar year always offers difficulty with Chinese economic figures, and this year was perhaps heightened in that respect since the New Year fell rather late on February 19. That suggests less dependable interpretations especially about February figures. So after rising a suspicious 48.3% in February, Chinese exports (in US$’s) are down 15% in March even though they were [...]
The effects of a strong US currency are vast. Much of what is being reported in main stream media are the negative domestic effects. A wider view shows some positive evolving trends as well. Yes, a higher US dollar has killed oil prices. This has lead to lower broad Index earnings and earnings expectations which is highly concentrated in the energy [...]
I should have known better than to write an article about the possibility of a correction in US stocks. I took a lot of abuse from the bulls this week as the US stock market shrugged off - again, for now - the weak economic data that just keeps coming. That light at the end of the tunnel the Fed [...]
We ran into this complication during Bernanke’s partial “confession” about his brand of QE, namely that what failed was not the power of the Fed overall but rather to extend the power of the Fed beyond merely the financial. He is trying to claim that QE wasn’t really impactful after having totally assured anyone who would listen contemporarily that it [...]
GC Repo rates for MBS actually ticked higher despite a sizable decline in total par volume offered, coming in just barely shy of 25 bps. Agency repo rates followed, unsurprisingly, while UST repo rates declined by a few pips. Unusual elevation continues.
The primary challenge of trying to unravel wholesale finance is the innumerable and often impenetrable layers. Making important distinctions is quite tricky, as you have to account for additional dimensions above and beyond what might pass for reasonable expectations. The repo market offers a good example of that, as you have supply and demand for cash “helping” set the repo [...]
The wholesale sales and inventory figures were significantly revised this month going back more than a decade. The largest revisions were evident after 2007, which changes slightly the depth of the Great Recession and the “briskness” of the stunted recovery thereafter. Though both sales and inventory figures are much higher than previously believed (until they get revised again), the economic [...]
Rhetorically, I wondered yesterday what it was that economists and the media were actually looking at when opining about certain economic topics. That was in relation to German factory orders which are clearly moving in the “wrong” direction, to which that is supposed to be set aside in favor of “sentiment” and the ephemeral “confidence.” Neither of those words really [...]
The ECB having announced and then implemented at least some kind of QE plan, the entire economist community has adjusted their economic projections upward in uniform, flocking fashion. They haven’t had to make much of an adjustment because they never downgraded economic expectations much to begin with. That is why almost every news story about the economy (and not just [...]
With a week to go before April 15, GC repo rates remain undisturbed from their recent elevated fashion. The rate of decline has also slowed appreciably, down to just a few pips today, as volume continues to be stable at an also raised level (compared to recent conditions). And despite the FOMC minutes, the eurodollar curve has only moves 1-2bps [...]
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