Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Depth in Home Sales

Existing home sales re-attained the 5 million SAAR level again in June, but that remains well behind last year’s trajectory. In other words, the bounce in sales after the most recent trough is not nearly as robust as predicted when it was simply assumed that the housing market would just revert back to 2013’s trend. .. read more

Speculating On The Gold Supply

What follows here, in the interest of full disclosure, is nothing more than speculative conjecture on my part. This is due mostly to the opacity that dominates gold “markets” and trading oddities that follow from it. My thoughts here are based on gut instinct about recent observations, but that is about as much to solidify .. read more

It’s Not Coming

Entrenched narratives die extremely hard, with all due respect to John McClane’s [Bruce Willis] aging franchise, and I cannot remember something so cemented as the recovery idea this year. That is really saying something considering that each and every New Year’s Day after the trough of the Great Recession has brought out the same exact .. read more

A Change In Policy?

The Committee recognizes that low interest rates may provide incentives for some investors to “reach for yield,” and those actions could increase vulnerabilities in the financial system to adverse events. While prices of real estate, equities, and corporate bonds have risen appreciably and valuation metrics have increased, they remain generally in line with historical norms. .. read more

Treasury Solicits QE Absolution

I have to say that I am more than a little amused by the “news” that the US Treasury Dept. is asking for comment from the primary dealers about the recent repo fails. As Bloomberg put it succinctly, “The Treasury also asked the dealers to explain the causes for an increase recently in “fails-to-deliver” in .. read more

IBM Extends Slump, Cheers Analysts

The speed at which standards for judgment and analysis have eroded has been slow enough over the past few years as to be nearly imperceptible. There is, of course, a tremendous difference between a company analyst and a macro observer, but that does not necessarily and directly lead to special divergences. In fact, most of .. read more

The Bad News Of Repo Fails Subsiding

With the latest data from FRBNY in hand, the surge in repo fails authorities and certain credit market observers that were stressed over the affair, it is actually confirmation of regularity, and thus a high degree of systemic deficiency. Further, as a real world test, it ends any credibility the reverse repo program had as .. read more

What An ‘Absence of Meaning’ Means

Henry Hazlitt once wrote that, “it is often sadly remarked that the bad economists present their errors to the public better than the good economists present their truths.” I have come to wonder how far that might have penetrated, disabling so many of the tools in which any “good” economists, or even investors, may use .. read more