201504.17
2
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Blame GDP

I think we are getting an even better sense of what might be the most ironclad law of orthodox economics. It seems as if there is a nonlinear proportionality between the desperation in which the mainstream denies it and the farther away from recovery the economy becomes. Last year was full of denial, especially as…

201504.16
1
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Home Construction Headwind

The latest figures from the Census Bureau on home construction continue to suggest that the home sales number from last month was, at best, a one-off abnormality. If new home sales were heading appreciably higher in what might have been perceived as a sustained advance, you would expect that new home construction would at least…

201504.16
1
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Swiss ‘Dollars’ In February

I think it is interesting that the TIC data also provides some further confirmation about the Swiss participation in the January 15 version of the “dollar” problem. Of course, that still fits with the supercycle decay of the overall eurodollar standard, and even as one of those asymmetries, but I think it deserves its own…

201504.16
2
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Direct Evidence for the Supercycle

When categorizing intuition about the real economy, it is often regarded as a combination of both structural and now cyclical problems. There was, as yet, no true recovery owing largely to factors that continue to linger beyond historical comparisons about what “should” have occurred in and after the Great Recession. Some economists refer to deleveraging…

201504.15
1
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Good-bye April 15 and Thanks for Nothing But Leftovers

I had hoped that something would have happened by now and that April 15 would follow more closely the October 15 and January 15 events, if only for the sake of experimentation. We don’t really need any additional illiquidity and certainly nothing as globally severe as those, but with function the way it is and…

201504.15
1
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US IP Too

It never really was weather to begin with, a statement that applies increasingly to not just this year. The fact that prior winters were wintry should have made no difference at all to an economy that is stable and moving via organic processes. It is only the artificial trends that can be subverted by all…

201504.15
1
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What End, The ‘Dollar’?

The question was never about what Chinese GDP would amount to, as that is as much an intentional projection as it is a measure of economic performance. That is true everywhere, but the Chinese have become masters of hitting their marks. They “predicted” 7% GDP and that is exactly what they got. It is more…

201504.14
4
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A View To The Downside

With retail sales and some other recent indicators flashing deeper warnings about the current economic climate, the concerns I raised last week and before about the “bunker mentality” have increased in relevance as well as probability. Specifically, if recession on the consumer side is rightfully characterized by households taking on a “bunker mentality” then it…

201504.14
0
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The Old School Ingredients

For the most part, retailers have been far more cautious about inventory than their wholesale counterparts. I don’t doubt that those two processes are actually related, with the inventory appetite swinging to wholesalers almost by default, but circumstances now dictate either a conscious break with that conduct or a convergence. With inventories already far too…

201504.14
1
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Retail Sales Among The Worst In March Too

It is hard to take any one-month change as anything more than usual variation when it is so far out of alignment with everything else. Some economists are cheering the fact that retail sales rose for the first time in four months, and that it was the biggest monthly gain in a year, but both…