Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Not Enough To Revise QE3 & 4 History

One of the major benefits to rewriting history, and “moving” growth from 2011 and 2012 into 2013, is that Bernanke’s QE3 & 4 scorecard looks a hell of a lot better. Unfortunately, it still isn’t enough of an inventory change to show acceleration, but it is, supposedly, far less of a direct abomination.   Click .. read more

Better To Risk Worse Recession; Recovery Compounding Matters Far More

In light of second quarter GDP’s imminent release and the explosion of commentary it will undoubtedly create, I thought it useful to promote a better context that includes all pertinent variables of analysis and judgment. As I said earlier today on CNBC with Rick Santelli, it is often overlooked that the US economy has been .. read more

It’s Never Enough

Not much needs to be said about Japan, as they continue to get what they wanted. While mainstream “news” outlets have been framing this as “not as bad as it could have been” based on the expectations of economists, that is an awfully thin, but familiar, basis for taking the “bright side.” What has been .. read more

Margin Debt Returns

Margin debt again escalated in June, putting some emphasis back into the smaller caps and their high beta compatriots. After surpassing the dot-com bubble’s previous levels for both nominal margin usage and negative investor net worth in February, some caution was re-admitted if only briefly. There wasn’t much discernable impact on the broader market indices, .. read more

China and the Central Bank Exposition

Earlier in the year, China was the primary topic of conversation as its economy teetered upon the precipice of the great unknown, growth less than the “minimum”, while corporate defaults suddenly became somewhat contagious. At the time, monetarists globally were unconcerned despite the outward projection of a high degree of disorder because they “knew” the .. read more

Durable Goods Becoming Less Boring?

The durable goods report has become one of the most boring and uninteresting of all the major data series. There has been little change in the pace of growth, as these segments are clearly stuck in the rut that seemingly captured everything in the middle of 2012. While there is growth, it is nothing like .. read more

Beyond Gallup

Since I believe the Gallup poll estimates to be significant, I want to revisit them with the addition of one more factor which I think further illustrates the distinct lack of progress toward escape velocity. By Gallup’s own definitions, they ask respondents (with representative sampling techniques, including a 50% landline/50% cell mix) what they spent .. read more

Gallup’s Spending Analysis Confirms A Whole Lot

Gallup’s latest figures on consumer spending in June put to rest any idea of a major surge, completing a picture of the second quarter that is far more tepid than any weather-related symmetry with the first would have you believe. It has been an ongoing theme for several weeks as incoming estimates (aside from sentiment .. read more