201501.27
1
0

Global Means Global; ‘Dollar’ Means Trouble

In addition, and very much related, to durable and capital goods disappointment, some major bellwether earnings have weighed on jubilation over the “robust” economy. Caterpillar in particular was troubling, but as the lineup of excuses expands, the idea of “decoupling” is now even more pronounced. So, in addition to the energy sector dragging down earnings,…

201501.27
0
0

There Is Some Marginal Use in New Home Sales Figures

The level of new home sales seemed to take another run at the 500k seasonally-adjusted annual rate in December. This would be the third time in 2014 that the pace of sales reached a new high point for this cycle, but the prior two were subsequently revised much lower. In fact, revisions have made it…

201501.27
3
0

Was Credit Right?

There may be something to December after all. It was credit markets that shifted downward (bearish yield curves and credit spreads) dramatically around the end of November and the first few days of December. Given the persistence of large players moving credit and funding markets, this may not be all that hard to fathom with…

201501.26
2
0

Shifting Foundation of Junk

The energy sector may account for a good proportion of risky credit, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that all negative price action in high yield and junk is entirely energy. While certain markets have regained comfort with the world’s various potentials, the outer echelons of US credit remain on alert. That is typically the pattern…

201501.26
0
0

When 2 Years Doesn’t Mean 2 Years

Japan has faded from the front page, but the economic disaster continues to bother. The Bank of Japan has been forced back from its first target “against” the “deflationary mindset” that launched QQE back in April 2013. The goal then was not to achieve 2% “inflation”, but rather a stable and sustained 2% rate. Needless…

201501.25
6
0

The Deflation Threat

There’s been a lot of talk recently about deflation – no I’m not talking about the New England Patriots – so maybe it’s a good time to talk about what it really is and why so many economists seem to be in a tizzy about the possibility. For most of the folks who spend their…

201501.23
4
0

Corporatism Speaks

There hasn’t been much of Treasury Secretary Jack Lew around the mainstream newsfeed in a long time, maybe even going back to his confirmation. However, he caused a lit bit of wrinkle by proclaiming his love for a “strong dollar” while placing it within the context of perhaps ECB criticism. “The strong dollar, as all…

201501.23
6
0

Bouncing Rubble

The Keynesian revival that is currently underway in the backrooms and hallways of assorted world governments is being somewhat replicated in Europe this week. It is all predicated on the position that all previous forms of “stimulus” from the fiscal side were not the right size, composition or color for that matter and thus the…

201501.23
0
0

A Difference Between Krone and Franc

Recognizing the danger of being understated, Swiss markets are a disaster. The overnight rate at -4% handily beats out the periodic specialness in US$ repo which settles at the penalty rate of “only” -3%. The 10-year bond rate is -.257%; the 15-year at -.083%. The Swiss stock index fell more than 14% in the two…

201501.23
0
0

Existing Home Sales Look Like Apartments

Existing home sales rebounded in December from a pretty ugly (and downwardly revised) November, but only slightly. That would seem to suggest that there are more lingering problems as the real estate market tries to find its way back to the path it was on before the word “taper” was injected into the MBS market….