SPECIAL REPORT: Debt, Deficit, & Interest Expense (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses investor fear over debt, deficit, and interest expense.
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses investor fear over debt, deficit, and interest expense.
For the first time since March we are seeing a positive correlation between bond yields and reverse repos sold by the Fed. The change started during the last week of October and has continued throughout November. The correlation in March coincided with bank failures, mainly Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. In between March and the end of October, the [...]
It's the residual of all the stuff we can't explain. It's not that our models are wrong, it's the dark matter that's out there. - Fed Governor Neel Kashkari, referring to the "term premium" in long term Treasury yields The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can [...]
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at a range of 5.25-5.5%. Thinking about future meetings, Powell said that they he believes policy is restrictive and is working to bring down economic activity and inflation. But, he also said that they do not know whether the current policy rate is sufficiently tight enough to bring down inflation to 2% over [...]
Here is a brief summary of what is of concern to domestic and international policymakers, academics, community groups, and others. We might call these "known risks." Persistent inflation and monetary tightening Persistent or reaccelerating inflationary pressures Resilient economic outlook leading to further monetary policy tightening Volatile market conditions Entrenched expectations of higher inflation leading to higher realized inflation leading to [...]
Well, I finally got it. I've been fighting COVID for the last week and while most of my symptoms have improved, I am not 100% yet. My goal from the beginning of COVID was to avoid it, if at all possible, until it became endemic and less lethal. It seemed logical to me, a layman, that it would follow this [...]
As a weekly number, this is your leading indicator for employment and it just broke below 200,000 again after a recent peak of 265,000 in early June. It continues to be historically fantastic, better than about 95% of history going back to 1967. Btw, I did remove some of the data from 2020, the unprecedented jump in claims to close [...]
The employment report on Friday seemed like a good one. The unemployment rate was unchanged as the economy added 336,000 jobs in September. The gains were widespread with additions in manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation, warehousing, leisure and hospitality, healthcare and education, and government. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% for the month and 4.2% year-over-year. It was [...]
Joe explains why he thinks rates are about to peak. He also does some teaching about the correlation between interest rates, GDP, Nominal GDP, and more.
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