Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 52; Part 1: Not All Operational Errors Are The Same
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 52; Part 1: Not All Operational Errors Are The Same

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 52; Part 1: Not All Operational Errors Are The Same

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-03-01T14:43:34-05:00March 1st, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

52.1 Fedwire Breaks: Anomaly or Trigger?Fedwire, the interbank system that transmits billions between 9,000-plus members, broke on Wednesday. The Fed says, "operational error" implying mere technical trivia - an anomaly. Why do some breaks stay mere anomalies while others trigger volatile, systemic consequences? [Emil's Summary] The theme of Making Sense Episode 52 is how an environment reacts to an anomaly. [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 51: Reading Around
Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 51: Reading Around

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 51: Reading Around

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-03-01T14:43:08-05:00March 1st, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed within the content are solely the author’s and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of the website or its affiliates. 51.0 Reading Around: Pettis On Tariffs and US Jobs Economic historian Michael Pettis' essay on why an "obsolete understanding of trade flows ends up pointing trade policymakers in the wrong direction." A reading, by Emil [...]

Treasury Market Volatility: Not Uncommon At All, Why and How

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-26T19:35:39-05:00February 26th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

All the signs were there, starting with the fact that the Fed and ECB together had supposedly the flooded the world with digital money yet a palpable “something” was really off. Ben Bernanke’s central bank had unleashed both ZIRP and QE, the latter of which had finished up a couple months before. In Europe, Jean Claude-Trichet’s outfit was “highly accommodative” [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 48: Reading Around
Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 48: Reading Around

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 48: Reading Around

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-26T18:06:23-05:00February 26th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed within the content are solely the author's and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of the website or its affiliates. 48.0 Reading Around: Myrmikan on System-Critical Short Squeezes Financial historian Daniel Oliver's essay on the systemic consequence of the 1907 short squeeze on United Copper Company and lessons for today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 50: What Did They Say?
Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 50: What Did They Say?

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 50: What Did They Say?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-26T18:00:02-05:00February 26th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

50.0 Why Economists Kept Getting the Policies WrongJeff Snider reacts to two recent articles: "Bond yields are not good predictors of inflation" (Peterson Institute for International Economics) and "Why economists kept getting the policies wrong" (Financial Times). ———SPONSOR——— But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! The motion picture event of the summer: (Con)Tango & Cash. When an international smuggling ring uses the [...]

Uncle Sam Bribes His Way Into Goldilocks’ Not-yet Thirsty Bears

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-26T17:50:54-05:00February 26th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE Deflator, consumer price pressures remained muted in January 2021. No surprise, given the absence of inflationary conditions contained within the prior released CPI report for the same month, as even the contribution from surging oil prices was noticeably minimal in both. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) today said that [...]

Three Things About Today’s UST Sell-off, Beginning With Fedwire

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-26T18:09:25-05:00February 25th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Three relatively quick observations surrounding today’s UST selloff.1. The intensity. Reflation is the underlying short run basis, but there is ample reason to suspect quite a bit more than that alone given the unexpected interruption in Fedwire yesterday.At 12:43pm EST, most of FRBNY’s electronic services experienced an as-yet unexplained problem which interrupted service, including that of Fedwire. To this point, [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 49; Part 3: Consuming Consumer Data
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 49; Part 3: Consuming Consumer Data

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 49; Part 3: Consuming Consumer Data

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-25T18:58:38-05:00February 25th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

49.3 Week 48 of 'Record' Jobless ClaimsLearn how to reconcile a positive surge in retail sales with a nightmare string of 'record' jobless claims and lousy sentiment reported by the University of Michigan consumer survey. Perhaps pent up demand? Maybe. An unusual, poorly explained seasonal adjustment boost? Maybe too. ———SPONSOR——— But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! The motion picture event [...]

Hot Oil, Cold Weather, Uncle Sam’s Green

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-24T19:24:35-05:00February 24th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For a couple of weeks, the $600 payments from Uncle Sam seemed to have found their way into the tanks of Americans driving their automobiles a little bit more than they had. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the total amount of gasoline “supplied” by the domestic marketplace reached 8.4 mbpd the second week of February. Like retail [...]

Nine Percent of GDP Fiscal, Ha! Try Forty

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-24T18:38:43-05:00February 24th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Fear of the ultra-inflationary aspects of fiscal overdrive. This is the current message, but according to what basis? Bigger is better, therefore if the last one didn’t work then the much larger next one absolutely will. So long as you forget there was a last one and when that prior version had been announced it was also given the same [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 52; Part 1: Not All Operational Errors Are The Same

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 51: Reading Around

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 48: Reading Around

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 50: What Did They Say?

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 49; Part 3: Consuming Consumer Data

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