201508.09
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The Correction Gains Momentum

US stocks declined for the seventh straight day on Friday, a dismal streak not seen for almost four years. The S&P 500 is now down 5 of the last 7 weeks although in total it is just 2.5% below the all time high. If you just own the index I suppose that is not much…

201508.02
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The New Normal Gets A Downgrade

It was back in 2009 that Bill Gross coined the term New Normal to describe the post-crisis US economy. That economy is marked by a reduced willingness to take risk in the private sector for a variety of reasons. No interest rate is low enough to induce corporate spending in an environment where aggregate demand…

201506.28
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The Market Waits For No One

Our lens suggests that the very low interest rates that have prevailed for so long may not be “equilibrium” ones, which would be conducive to sustainable and balanced global expansion. Rather than just reflecting the current weakness, low rates may in part have contributed to it by fuelling costly financial booms and busts. The result…

201506.14
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Smoothing Global Growth through Regionally Counter Cyclical Credit

“While most investors were preoccupied with deflation, related to last year’s plunge in oil prices, and the seemingly hopelessness of quantitative easing, a stealth recovery in private sector global credit demand was underway. We examined prospects for credit growth..which highlighted some surprising developments relative to the economic pessimism that had caused government bond yields to…

201412.21
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Questions For 2015

Well, it’s that time of year again, when all the pundits offer their crystal ball views of the coming new year. I don’t usually participate in the prediction game and this year won’t be any different. Like everyone else I wonder what the future holds but I know I have no special ability to predict…

201412.07
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Rising Dollar: Good News, Bad News

So here we are nearly 6 years removed from the last global financial crisis – surely not the last – and while a lot has been done by global economic policymakers, it seems that not much has really been accomplished. Globally, debt has risen since the crisis despite the cries from some quarters of “austerity”;…

201411.09
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Political Economy

I hate to do it, but I’m going to have to write about politics this week. Believe me, it isn’t something I relish, but in light of the recent election, it would be dereliction of duty to ignore the elephant and donkey in the room. Let’s get this out of the way right up front;…

201410.27
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What Happens When You Don’t Actually Own It

The very character and content for “money” has undergone a radical shift particularly as banking and central banking has attained its latest incarnation. However, even making that statement is somewhat misleading since “money” has been absent from the United States for almost a century. For the most part, nobody seems to have missed it, at…

201410.26
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A Market That Satisfies No One

Stocks rebounded in spectacular fashion last week, the angst of the last few weeks apparently forgotten as quickly as a central banker can float a trial balloon. First there was the Bullard bounce that moved us off the lows when things were looking their grimmest and then last week we got a rumor about the…