201504.26
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Down The Rabbit Hole

When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead And the white knight is talking backwards And the red queen’s off with her head… Grace Slick, White Rabbit ‘Twas brilling, and the slithy toves Did gyre and gimble in the wabe: All mimsy were the borogoves, And the mome raths ougrabe Lewis Carrol, Jabberwocky For those…

201504.19
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A Canary In The Coal Mine?

What does GE know that we don’t? That was my initial reaction to the news this week that GE is exiting the finance business that has provided it a seemingly endless stream of profits over the last three decades. Well, except for that little interruption that has come to be known as the Great Recession….

201504.12
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Fast Money, Fast Markets

I should have known better than to write an article about the possibility of a correction in US stocks. I took a lot of abuse from the bulls this week as the US stock market shrugged off – again, for now – the weak economic data that just keeps coming. That light at the end…

201504.05
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Bonds or Equities? Haters going to Hate

Our strategic macro economic research partner has a max underweight recommendation for bonds. Why the hate? For starters, real yields are 0%. While certainly better than the first quarter of 2013, is 0% the best we can hope to earn from our savings and investment dollars? Given current levels of GDP and current earnings yields for equities,…

201504.05
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Is The Long Awaited Correction At Hand?

It’s been almost 4 years since the last 10% correction in US stock prices, one of the longest stretches on record. Historically, on average, we get a 10% correction about every 18 months. More severe bear markets, declines of 20% or more, are associated with recessions which are hard to predict and fairly rare. Corrections…

201503.29
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Shifting Momentum

US stocks continued their recently more volatile ways this week giving up almost all the gains of last week. In fact, the S&P 500 is now basically flat for the last four months, making no headway since late November despite a series of nominal new highs along the way. As the Fed has backed away…