201503.29
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Shifting Momentum

US stocks continued their recently more volatile ways this week giving up almost all the gains of last week. In fact, the S&P 500 is now basically flat for the last four months, making no headway since late November despite a series of nominal new highs along the way. As the Fed has backed away…

201503.22
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Macro Observations

Dollar strength may be over extended. Dollar action after the Fed announcement last week seemed to indicate that investors (speculators) were ready and willing to sell the greenback. Looking at the chart, one can see a potential peak in the Dollar Index earlier this month. And, our macro economic partner’s indicators are a short term extended…

201503.22
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Hawk, Dove Or Chicken?

Janet Yellen threaded the needle this week with a masterfully worded statement following the FOMC meeting. The word “patient”, the removal of which had produced so much angst in markets recently, was excised to appease the hawks while the rest of the statement cooed dovishly to appease the stock market bulls. The Fed finally acknowledged…

201503.15
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US Equity Leadership is Fading

Research notes from Macro Research Board: While non-U.S. equity markets have massively underperformed the U.S. in recent years, especially in U.S. dollar terms, there are signs of a reversal in a number of key bourses. Our favored non-U.S. markets (EM commodity importers, the euro area and Japan) have recently edged higher in relative terms, even…

201503.15
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Hello Volatility

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a bit over 100 points last week but that hardly does justice to a week with multiple triple digit swings. Three of the last six trading days have seen a move of at least 1%, a level of volatility that must be unnerving to anyone who thought the last…

201503.08
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Looking for Value

Today’s world is one of historically high US equity valuations, equity buybacks but an otherwise lack of breadth in equity performance, and little to no yield for short duration fixed income. Where does one look for value? Remember that “value” is representative of things that appear on sale relative to the alternatives. This means that…

201503.01
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Currency Wars & Newton’s Third Law

Newton’s Third Law states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Economics is certainly not science so the application of Newton’s law would seem inappropriate for analyzing the global economy, but in today’s world I think it is apt; more growth here means less growth there, a zero sum game of aggregate demand…

201502.18
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FOMC Worries About The End Instead of the Beginning…

As per usual, the latest FOMC statement conjured up a storm of befuddlement about any number of topics. Most of the concerns, should they even be categorized thusly, amount to debated levels of disingenuousness surrounding oil prices (only a month ago there was nothing “bad” about a 60% collapse in the world’s primary resource input)….

201502.16
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Is It Time To Zig?

The US stock market made another all time high last week amid more mediocre – at best – US economic data. Much of the gain was credited to positive developments in the geopolitical arena as a ceasefire was announced in Ukraine and negotiations continued on Greek debt relief with some positive signs that an agreement…