201605.24
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Sector Snapshot: Dollar Rally Could Impact Leaders

The short term leadership is shifting as the dollar comes off its lows. Energy and materials had been leading the market during the recent period of dollar weakness. As the dollar found its footing over the last month, defensive sectors took the lead.  Whether this short term shift continues will likely depend on whether the…

201605.13
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

Economic Reports Scorecard The tone of the economic reports improved over the last two weeks with quite a few releases coming in better than expected. From a scorecard viewpoint, we had 6 reports better than expected versus 8 worse than expected for the reports where a consensus can be tracked and interpreted. (Note: sometimes it…

201605.10
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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets are unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60. It was tempting to raise the risk allocation this month and up our allocation to the weak dollar investments we’ve favored for some time. But the only indicator that really improved was credit…

201604.29
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Chart Of The Week: Silver Miners vs Gold Miners

You’d have to be living under a rock to not know that gold is surging this year. And gold miners are performing even better than the metal itself. In a sign that the rally in precious metals might be getting a little more speculative, silver has started to outperform gold. And silver miners are outpacing…

201604.22
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Sector Snapshot: Energy & Materials Still Leading

There has been some turnover in the short term leadership but energy and materials are still the leading sectors: The newcomer moving up in the pack is healthcare which was at the bottom of the one month list last month. Defensive sectors had a bad month with utilities and staples bringing up the rear. Recession…

201604.08
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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets are again unchanged for this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60. The changes in our indicators this month were not significant enough to warrant a change. Credit spreads stopped narrowing and have recently been widening again, ever so slightly. Valuations, long term…

201603.27
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Country ETF Update

The theme for Single Country ETFs over the last month is either countries that produce a lot of natural resources (commodities) or Countries in which sane people don’t invest. Okay, maybe sanity isn’t the proper metric but surely investors who can’t afford to take a loss shouldn’t be investing in Russia, Peru or Turkey, all…

201603.23
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It’s Hard Being A Bear

Global stock markets, especially in the US, have made a furious comeback from the lousy start of the year. At its worst level the S&P 500 was down 11% year to date and 15% from its peak late last spring. At that nadir the market was trading at roughly the same level as November of…

201603.23
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Sector Snapshot: Will The Energy Surge Continue?

The last month has seen a shift in the fortunes of energy stocks with the sector leading the pack with a return over 11%. Will it last? That probably depends more on the direction of the US dollar than it does any of the alleged production agreements that get so much press and rarely produce…

201603.11
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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets this month are again unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. The changes in our indicators since last month’s update have not been sufficient to warrant a change. Credit spreads did narrow significantly over the last month but…