201508.30
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Still Not Where We’re Going…

Let’s start this week’s missive off with a disclosure of sorts – I am not Joe Calhoun. Unlike Joe, I have managed to hold on to my hair over the years although the last week has been challenging in that regard.  Joe and his lovely wife, Fay, took an extended weekend off and headed towards…

201508.23
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The Mysterious Selloff

Why was the stock market down almost 6% last week? I know what you’re thinking – has this guy been under a rock somewhere? But I’m serious. I know what all the pundits, commentators and talking heads are saying about the immediate cause. It’s about the China devaluation and the knock on effect in other…

201508.23
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The Loud Party Patron Cannot be Ignored

The volatility and negative price movement in capital markets this week is a symptom of a money system void of principle. The morally bankrupt system ignores the demand for money and just supplies it at continually cheaper levels. Unfortunately, the recipients of the cheap money are not inclined to use it for productive purposes. Idle cash,…

201508.16
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Who’s Afraid Of The Yuan?

China apparently shocked some people last week by allowing the Yuan to fall 3.5% against the dollar. I don’t know why in the world they would be shocked since we’ve known for months – heck almost a year now – that capital has been leaving China. I wrote about it back in March so it isn’t…

201508.16
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What’s the Consensus Anyway?

Are we going to get the 10-20% pull back in stocks that, it seems, everyone in the investing world is calling for? Given the anxiety and market volatility surrounding the Chinese currency devaluation, one might have thought again that this was the week for the long awaited correction. Well, SPY closed at 207.95 on 8/7…

201508.15
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The Weekly Snapshot

Top News Headlines China devalues the Yuan. China lets Yuan float. China supports Yuan. Something happens in the Chinese currency market. Oil prices continue to fall. US raises flag over Havana. Dissidents’ invitation gets lost in the mail. Tesla to sell more stock, profits elusive. Okay, very elusive. Okay, not frigging likely anytime soon. Dow…

201508.09
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Rate Cycle & Macro Economic Backdrop – Investment Strategy Implications

US monetary policy is the major driver of the global cost of capital. As a Fed rate cycle approaches, we see the effects of raising required returns across the globe. The increased volatility is a reflection of investors’ changing return requirements, risk assessments and the associated unwinding of leveraged exposure. As we approach the anticipated Fed…

201508.09
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The Correction Gains Momentum

US stocks declined for the seventh straight day on Friday, a dismal streak not seen for almost four years. The S&P 500 is now down 5 of the last 7 weeks although in total it is just 2.5% below the all time high. If you just own the index I suppose that is not much…

201508.09
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Global Asset Allocation Update

I am lowering our risk budget this month based on several factors. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds moves to a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40 and last month’s 50/50. Credit spreads have resumed widening as crude oil prices have resumed their downtrend. The downtrend in high…

201508.08
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The Weekly Snapshot

Top News Headlines Dow falls seven straight days; longest losing streak in four years Bonds up for third week in a row; diversification does work Apple stock in correction territory Republicans hold first debate; Fiorina, Kasich biggest surprises Media stocks clobbered; Disney leads to the downside on ESPN woes Economic News Incomes up modestly, spending…