201702.12
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Global Asset Allocation Update

There hasn’t been a lot of change in our indicators since the last update and therefore, despite my discomfort with the altitude of this stock market, there are no changes to the Global Asset Allocation this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50.  Bond markets…

201702.05 1

Pump It Up

She’s been a bad girl. She’s like a chemical. Though you try to stop it, she’s like a narcotic. You wanna torture her. You wanna talk to her. All the things you bought for her, putting up your temp’rature. Pump it up until you can feel it. Pump it up when you don’t really need…

201701.10
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Global Asset Allocation Update

Market based expectations for growth and inflation have moderated slightly since the last update. Since mid-December, interest rates – nominal and real – have fallen back, the yield curve has flattened, the dollar index has pulled back from its highs and gold has moved off its lows. In short, the Trump trade is being partially reversed…

201612.08
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ECB Discovers Curves

For years it was uncontested convention that the lower the rate the better. Stimulus was, after all, intended as a borrower boost. Make the cost of adding debt low and lower, then it was assumed borrowers would borrow more than they otherwise might have with recovery the promising result. Every time rates went lower, the…

201612.02
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Global Asset Allocation Update

Markets have moved sharply over the last month, mostly in the post-election period. Stocks are up – small caps exuberantly so – the dollar is up, bonds and gold are down. Surprisingly though, our indicators did not move all that much. The direction of change in the indicators is consistent with the moves in assets…

201611.20
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4 Things To Do Before December 31st

The end of 2016 will be here before you know it.  Here at Alhambra Investment Partners we want to remind you of some requirements and opportunities to put on your financial to-do list before year end. Take your RMD If you’re over 70 ½ and have a Traditional IRA, 401(k), 403(b), or 457 plan, the…

201610.31
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Global Asset Allocation Update

As with last month, I delayed this update a few days to see if we might gain some clarity that would warrant some change in our allocation. Alas, no such clarity has emerged and so, as it has been since August, the risk budget remains unchanged this month. Indeed, as last month, the entire portfolio…

201608.27
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Sector Snapshot: Technology Leading

I haven’t posted on sector momentum since just after the Brexit vote because there hasn’t been much change. The most obvious change is that all sectors are now positive on a three month basis. Defensive sectors have retreated a bit and more cyclical sectors have advance a bit. The result is a market that is…

201608.16
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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budget is unchanged this month although the composition of the portfolio does change. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds, risk assets and cash remains at 50/45/5. There are changes to the allocation but the overall risk budget stays the same. Credit spreads did continue to narrow this month but other…