201601.31
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A Closer Look: World Markets

Throughout October, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) rebounded remarkably from the lows made in late August, breaking above both moving averages and getting close to new all-time highs. After a volatile but stagnant final two months of the year, in which the market straddled the moving averages with no clear direction, the index once again broke down…

201601.31
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Central Banks Raise Risk not Inflation

The Bank of Japan shouted down the debt laden economy on Thursday evening in the US. Following Europe’s precedent, they took interest rates on a certain segment of bank assets negative. News flash: Asset prices rise from a small change in investor asset preference, nothing else is expected to change. Where’s this all heading? When…

201601.23 0

Is This A Bear Market?

Most people who have called themselves bears over the last couple of years had a pretty simple equation to justify their bearishness – High Present Valuations = Low Future Returns. And today’s valuations – the valuations of two years ago – were so high that future returns would be very low and probably, possibly, at…

201601.16
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Apocalypse Not Yet

Kurtz: I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That’s my dream; that’s my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor…and surviving. – From Apocalypse Now It doesn’t take much to awaken the bears on Wall Street. A couple of weeks of fairly routine stock market activity to…

201512.27
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Slim Pickings in 2015

Major Asset Classes with Positive Total Returns US Reits – 2.62% US Large Caps (SP500) – 2.2% Munis (3yr) – 1.16% Emerging Market Bonds – 1.08% US Bonds – 0.76% Cash – 0.02% Unfortunately, 2015 was not a great year for diversified portfolios. Kudos to those who owned Japan, Europe, US Large Cap Growth, Foreign…

201512.20 1

The Confidence Game Is Ending

Immediately after the Fed hiked interest rates last Wednesday – after sitting at 0% for 7 years – markets acted pretty much as one might expect. The Fed tightens monetary policy when the economy is strong so rising stock prices, rising interest rates and a strong dollar are all things that make sense in that…

201512.20
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The Weekly Snapshot

Top News Headline Stocks end down after wild 700 point range trading. US ends oil export ban. Crickets chirp. Republicans debate, Democrats debate, the nation shudders. Star Wars: The Force Awakens shatters box office records. I visit the mall to Christmas shop, discover the obesity epidemic is not solved, mirrors in short supply. Economic News…

201512.20
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Strategic Investing Themes for 2016

Lower oil prices provides tailwind and extends the current, elongated economic cycle Buy competitiveness Watch how China is managing their slowdown (money supply contraction and currency devaluation) Foreign equities outperform during rate hike cycles Bonds are vulnerable Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners’ money management services…

201512.13
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Business Cycle – Style and Market-Cap Historic Preferences

The graph below shows where to, historically, find out-performance given our likely position in the economic cycle. Some caveats of note to the generalized history shown. One is wise to consider both interest rate manipulation and behavioral factors stemming from and contributing to the extreme markets of the last 2 decades before blindly accepting this style and size equation. These…