201410.28
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A Word of Advice, Woman-to-Woman

“A woman is like a tea bag – you can’t tell how strong she is until you put her in hot water.” Eleanor Roosevelt Back in 1983, portfolio management was largely a male dominated industry. The majority of decision-making clients in the bank Trust Investment division where I began my career as a portfolio manager,…

201410.26
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A Market That Satisfies No One

Stocks rebounded in spectacular fashion last week, the angst of the last few weeks apparently forgotten as quickly as a central banker can float a trial balloon. First there was the Bullard bounce that moved us off the lows when things were looking their grimmest and then last week we got a rumor about the…

201410.19
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Was That It?

Stocks fell last week for the fourth week in a row and there was the whiff of panic mid-week. Despite that losing streak the S&P 500 is only 6% from its all time high but the pain for the leveraged investing crowd (the misnamed “hedge” funds) appeared to hit a crescendo last week – at…

201410.15
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What A Morning

An unbelievable morning of credit market trading has at least seen some semblance of “market” forces return by the afternoon. One aspect is certain, that the open was about as illiquid as the treasury market has seen in a long, long time. We should not make the mistake of illiquidity being only associated with selling,…

201410.12
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Down A Slippery Slope

This will be a shorter than normal commentary as I’m on my annual pilgrimage to Hilton Head Island to see old friends, talk about markets, politics and other subjects not suitable for a family friendly publication and to torture ourselves on the golf courses. As an aside, you are an evil man Pete Dye. I…

201410.10
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The Dollar And Now Repo

When speaking about the costs of having undertaken numerous QE’s in the US, there is not only the economic inefficiency and asset price psychology to account in the tapering and ultimately exit (hopefully a permanent one this time, though I increasingly doubt it). There is little doubt that repo market problems, that have become far…

201410.05
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What’s Up With The Dollar?

The US Dollar index is up 8.6% since the beginning of July and it seems everyone is jumping on the King Dollar bandwagon. With Mario Draghi openly rooting for a weaker Euro and Abenomics pushing down the Yen the dollar has emerged, as it often does, as the safe haven for global investors. The rise…

201410.02
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Kurtosis and The Three (Great) Bears

It is amazing how much “we” forget in the entire short space of “cycles.” That may be a function of an overload of information coming in from all sides, but I doubt it. I have always thought that more was better in that regard. Instead, I prefer to think of it as another monetary corruption….

201410.01
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Reverse Repo As A Fairy Tale

“We don’t exactly know how it will work” should be stamped upon every message coming from the policymaking apparatus from this point forward, and then retroactively applied to every message in the age of risk and rate repression. Action in short-term money markets has heated up yet again, and that is not a positive statement…

201409.28
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Shoeshine Boys & Thinking At The Margin

It is said that Joe Kennedy got out of the stock market in 1929 because he started to hear stock tips from his shoeshine boy. Bernard Baruch had similar feelings: When beggars and shoeshine boys, barbers and beauticians can tell you how to get rich it is time to remind yourself that there is no…