201608.29
0
0

Personal Income And Spending Change Again

The only economic data of note today was the notoriously unreliable personal income and spending figures. The data series contained within the suite are subject to not just major benchmark revisions but significant revisions within just the high frequency time frames. Perhaps the most pertinent example of this is the personal savings rate which has…

201608.29
1
0

Even The Academic Math of This Economy Is Pointing To The Unfortunate Existence of The Long Run Consequences

One of the articles referenced in Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech last week was a piece written for the Peterson Institute for International Economics by Senior Fellow Olivier Blanchard. Dr. Blanchard has, as noted earlier today, all the “right” credentials, which is why his conjecture gets included into the speeches of Federal Reserve Chairmen. Having…

201608.29
1
1

The Inarguable Math of the Morally Unfit

Central bankers have impeccable usually PhD level credentials from all the right places. Because of that, it is simply assumed that they are the preeminent experts of how any economy works. In reality, however, the term stamped on each of their doctoral degrees is highly misleading. Though it may say economics, it was really and…

201608.27
1
1

Sector Snapshot: Technology Leading

I haven’t posted on sector momentum since just after the Brexit vote because there hasn’t been much change. The most obvious change is that all sectors are now positive on a three month basis. Defensive sectors have retreated a bit and more cyclical sectors have advance a bit. The result is a market that is…

201608.26
1
0

What Yellen May Have Said

In case you need any assistance in trying to figure out when Janet Yellen spoke, or at least when the text of her speech was released from embargo, here is a hint: It seems her stream of consciousness was somewhat consistent with the old Greenspan idea of “fedspeak.” People and investors appear to have taken…

201608.26
0
0

Not Much To Headline GDP Revisions; Major Revisions Of Corporate Profits

Second quarter 2016 GDP was revised slightly lower, from about 1.21% to just 1.09%. That changes nothing from the preliminary estimate, as real GDP has averaged now only 0.93% over the past three quarters since last summer’s major, global disruption. Since the FOMC declared risks “balanced” and heading toward “overheating” in late 2014, economic growth…

201608.25
8
3

The Reckoning

As I have written many, many times, the “unexpected” events of January and February were a dramatic wake-up call for central banks. Last August’s global liquidation they could at least try to ignore because it could possibly fit within the paradigm of “transitory”, a one-off aberration that was some mysterious Chinese viral contagion and thus…

201608.25
0
0

As Summer Heats Up, So Does The Rhetoric

Today’s durable goods report was uniformly ugly, if not borderline atrocious. The view from especially capital goods, the vital investment that the US economy sorely needs to snap out of its slump, is that spring is definitely over. Contraction accelerated in almost every corner, with durable goods shipments (ex transportation), for example, falling by almost…

201608.24
1
0

Home Sales Fall, But It’s Really The Inventory That Might Be Significant

The contradictory nature of the real estate market continues to be exhibited in resales as well as new construction. Though sales of new homes jumped, resales fell. Since last June, the level of contracts for the sale of existing homes has been stuck around 5.4 million SAAR. That was about the same rate of activity…

201608.24
1
0

The Product of NIRP: Exposing Psuedo-Science

It wasn’t the introduction of statistics that led to the dire state of “science”, rather it was the jettison of common sense in favor of, and the total deference to, statistics. This was not a single event or a clean break, of course, as it happened slowly over decades. But in the 21st century what…