Home Sales Lag Where It Counts

Existing home sales rose again in July from a downward revised June, as the monthly change of 2.4% matched June’s revised increase over May. The yearly comparisons still continue to lag, as does the overall trend after the massive interruption that began last autumn. As the pace of sales has come back somewhat in 2014, .. read more

Attending the Exits

There is so much about the repo market that gets lost in the minute details that are more often than not counterintuitive. It can sometimes be confusing as to why counterparties might be willing to pay you to borrow their cash, which is what a negative repo rate actually indicates. In that situation, which is .. read more

Jeffrey Snider on CNBC’s The Santelli Exchange

Our Chief Investment Strategist: Structural vs Cyclical

On August 21st, 2014, posted in: Markets by

Searching For Fail, and Still Finding It

While the credit markets were looking elsewhere these past few weeks, funding markets are again off their axis as repo fails spiked significantly one more time. The current level of fails is not quite that of June, but it is enough to engender some more pause about financial plumbing. For the most part, explanations have .. read more

They Really Should Begin to Model The Inverse

As I noted yesterday with US housing construction, there has been a very unusual amount of emphasis added to the month-to-month changes of various indications. Maybe that is no more than normal, but it seems as if the confidence displayed in the minutiae has been amplified. Given the circumstances, that is both understandable and reprehensible .. read more

It’s Not All Oil and Gas

In addition to this morning’s “noisy” and suddenly more tame CPI report, there is a broad-based decline in commodity prices that is more than a little bit outside of “usual” volatility. It should be noted at the start that commodity prices are not always direct reflections of economic activity or expectations for future activity, as .. read more

Hard Dollars Back Up Housing Observations

To add more concreteness and weight to today’s observations about home construction (and renovation), comparable store sales at both Home Depot and Lowes confirm the slowing of real estate construction. It is nice, if not so often, when hard dollar figures imitate to even a small degree what is being shown of adjusted statistical probabilities. .. read more

Housing Relates To Income More Than Credit Now

“High frequency data”, as some of these data series are known, causes an inordinate problem for those that are unwilling to move outside of monthly changes. These are the kinds of accounts that are “noisy” and can be difficult to handle absent any real context, but that does not stop them for being used persistently .. read more