More Unexpected That Was Actually Expected By Unexpected Economists

Completing a review of last week not just inside economic performance but extended to the realm of theory landed on an article written by Brad DeLong about his changing characteristic of the US and global landscape. Mr. DeLong is noted for being a Keynesian of the first order, a fellow traveler and compatriot to Paul .. read more

How We Got Here

Last week was pretty much a disaster, not just economically speaking, for a wide swath of the globe – from Japan’s ongoing “unexpected” collapse to Europe’s “unexpected” third go at contraction (without recovery) to a very dim and “unexpected” view of credit markets pretty much everywhere including the US. This week started out with more .. read more

Secular Stagnation Or The Cusp Of A Boom?

I’ve mentioned several times recently that within Alhambra we often have vigorous debates about the economy and markets. I’m a big believer in the power of competition to improve outcomes whether we are talking about the macro economy or the micro debates about portfolio strategy in which we engage. The debates we have internally are .. read more

US Credit Bear Answers Europe & Japan

I have already written enough on a Friday before a long weekend about the growing pessimism in credit, but it bears reinforcing that such removal of central bank faith is not limited to Europe and Japan. US credit markets and dollar systems are equally partaking in the speed and depth of the bear flattening. Just .. read more

Did Eonia Just End the ECB’s Recovery Fiction?

What should most troubling to investors of all stripes and locales is that what is going on in Europe is almost exactly the same as what is taking place in Japan. Despite nearly all outward appearances, Japan and Europe have far more in common than differences, at least where it counts. The Japanese have finally .. read more

Our Future On Full Display Right Now

The Bank of Japan has already been pressured by events to reduce its economic expectations for 2014. At the end of 2013 there was enough cautious optimism that Japanese officials went ahead with their dubious proposal to try to appear fiscally responsible. The tax increase was expected to create a mild contraction in GDP before .. read more

GDP Pieces

Following up on my earlier observations about a reduced trajectory, getting away from the thick trees of quarterly statistic movements and revision for the forest of patterns and paths, viewing the subcomponents of GDP as standalone accounts rather than contributors highlights exactly that problem. Whether you view the economy through real final sales (both of .. read more

GDP Revisions Actually Show A Much Smaller Economy Further From Health

Statistics are notorious for being worse than liars, according to cliché, but under many circumstances there is more than an element of truth to that. The latest revisions to the July revisions are not quite the liars’ paradox (everything I say is a lie; that first statement is true) but there is something amiss that .. read more