201507.31
2
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High Costs Here Too

On January 15, the Swiss National Bank suddenly and without warning removed the franc’s peg to the euro. Months later, there is still much confusion as to why they acted, including some of the usual doctrinaire assessments that take no account of wholesale “dollar” reality. In other words, the SNB was explicit on January 15…

201507.31
4
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The Very Real, High And Ongoing Costs of Eurodollar Decay

Sticking with purely financial expression of the eurodollar standard it is easy at times to forget such monetary influence has very real consequences. That is true in the US in particular, as even though the recovery is both deficient and waning it isn’t the disaster it is in other, connected places. It was, after all,…

201507.31
0
0

July Closes With Same ‘Dollar’ Rampage

The “dollar” has ended the month much the way it started. Despite headlines suggesting the dollar is “down” today, it is very much proving to be disruptive across every proxy. Gold was down to $1,080 at the AM fix before rebounding. Commodities were sold broadly, with copper back near $2.359, down almost $0.02 at some…

201507.30
3
0

If It Takes 3 Years For The 2012 Slowdown To Hit GDP…

According to the latest GDP revisions I may have been off in my projection of where the recession began. I wrote in 2013 that if pressed I would name October 2012 as the start of the recession. There were many reasons for that assessment; retail sales suddenly and sharply slowing, durable goods and particularly capital…

201507.30
0
0

That’s It?

For once, the Fed gets it right. Actually, it is three times and only certain parts of the Fed, as the agency is by no means monolithic. In the first two, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker nailed the preliminary GDP estimate for the second straight quarter. You can appreciate why they unveiled it just recently…

201507.29
1
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More QE Non-neutrality

The simple narrative about QE is drawn from what is believed a simple process. The central bank buys bonds and by doing so it is simply assumed to be an “extra” bid on bond prices; therefore interest rates fall in whatever issue is being targeted by QE. Even in the US, QE has had trouble…

201507.29
1
0

At This Point, What Difference Does ‘Some’ Make

Despite being the last FOMC meeting before the ever-expected rate hike in September , there was a whole bunch of nothing in markets before and even after the policy statement. Even the typical knee-jerk was less than on prior meetings. Maybe traders have come to expect so very little from the policy statement, focusing more…

201507.29
2
0

The Confidence Experiment

I typically stay away from sentiment indicators and measures of “confidence” not just because they are of dubious construction but they often don’t mean what they are taken for. In the case of consumer confidence, you get both problems simultaneously particularly at the ends of each cycle. In other words, just as “confidence” is at…

201507.28
0
0

Home Sales and Pricing Not Building Up To Expectations

The housing market has failed to perform as expected on either side. Instead, as far as a broader set of measures, real estate is in a bit of stasis, neither really growing nor falling apart. Given the set of mainstream economic expectations, that is confounding and could ultimately be a problem. If the economy is…

201507.28
3
0

Economists Try To Find ‘Missing’ GDP Rather Than The Lost Economy

With the advance report on GDP for Q2 set to be released this week, economists are working hard to explain why it doesn’t represent the utopian delivery that they swear had already occurred via monetary intervention. There is, in immediate terms, the universal appearance of “residual seasonality” in the past few months as an almost…