201503.31
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Incoming April 15

Usually references to April 15 are reserved for income taxes, but in this case that preference may be superseded. Recognizing the illiquidity pattern of the “rising dollar” means being vigilant toward the next expected instance. If October 15 was an “event” followed by January 15 in succession, then it is reasonable to at least anticipate…

201503.31
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Strike 2 On Chicago

The continued disappointment of economic data is starting to weigh, but only as concerns might be directed toward Q1. Despite all projections for a sharp rebound after January’s dreariness, February figures continue on the downside and now March indications are not much better. The latest is the ISM Chicago Business Barometer (formerly Chicago PMI) which…

201503.31
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Bernanke Part 2; Inescapable Inequalities

It’s mostly accepted that what a central bank does is no more inconsistent with capitalism than what you and I do on a regular basis. There are various reasons for this self-inclusion which should be disqualified based on common sense alone, but monetary theory is, by intent, impenetrable beyond the few indoctrinated in its ritual…

201503.30
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Disinflation Is Not Cash

Personal spending had fallen, seasonally-adjusted, for two consecutive months placing warning upon the household sector. The just-released estimates for January show only the smallest of rebounds, just +0.1%, in February suggesting that nothing yet has been resolved in either direction. Unlike last year, there is no surge that would indicate a temporary straying from the…

201503.30
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Bernanke Admits, After Decades Contrary, The Fed Is Powerless

Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke welcomed himself to the online economics community by initiating a personal blog at the Brookings Institute where he has landed as a Distinguished Fellow in Residence. This initial posting has created quite a stir, as you might expect, which has to be among the primary reasons for this venture. I…

201503.29
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A Closer Look: Market Cap

After stagnating in January, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) continued its surge to new all-time highs February. March isn’t looking so rosy though. If it can’t blast through the 50-day moving average and above the 2120 level, look for the index to test the 200-day moving average at the 2010 level. The S&P 500 is up…

201503.29
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Shifting Momentum

US stocks continued their recently more volatile ways this week giving up almost all the gains of last week. In fact, the S&P 500 is now basically flat for the last four months, making no headway since late November despite a series of nominal new highs along the way. As the Fed has backed away…

201503.27
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Banco do Brasil Denies Its Own Self-Destructive Measures

The axiom of most central banking is to “buy time” so that any deemed improper imbalance can be retrieved, set aside and allow for restoration of positive function. Colloquially, it is often referred to as “extend and pretend” not just because of intended affront but rather due to how fitting the circumstances so often apply….

201503.27
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But The Payroll Report…

It wasn’t supposed to be the case that China would steal all the attention from Japan. We are only a few days away from QQE’s second anniversary and all expectations were purposely set to be a full-blown revival by now. The dedication and skill with which the Japanese economy was handled was meant to conclusively…