Bonds

Overshadowing The Multi-year CPI High

By |2018-08-13T18:15:42+00:00August 13th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Overshadowed by the “dollar” last week was the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS reported the US CPI had increased in July 2018 by the highest rate since December 2011. Running at 2.95% year-over-year, consumer prices accelerated a little from June’s pace. Not only that, the CPI’s core rate of inflation sped up to 2.35%. [...]

The Smoke Thickens In China

By |2018-08-13T11:54:23+00:00August 13th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A major part of any yield curve is inflation expectations. Nominal growth particularly toward the longer end of curves sets the agenda for trading. But further out there are several confluences that may cause distortions. For Economists, these are conundrums. There are times, however, when curve dynamics remain pretty simple. These are not usually the [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2018-08-02T09:20:03+00:00August 1st, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY. Interest rates are on the rise again, the 10-year Treasury yield punching [...]

Just Who, Exactly, Is So Optimistic?

By |2018-07-26T18:41:45+00:00July 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

BNP Paribas is apparently calling for an epic rout in German bunds. According to Bloomberg (who else?) it’s a mini-revival of Bill Gross’ ill-fated tweet advertising the “short of a lifetime.” In April 2015, the man many called the bond king said it was going to be better than the pound in 1993. https://twitter.com/JHIAdvisorsUS/status/590519759797530624 Gross [...]

From Inflation Hysteria to Curve Crazy

By |2018-07-25T17:22:12+00:00July 25th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One soft indication of how far things have gone is Bloomberg. Six or eight months ago, its newsfeed was filled with uniformly apocalyptic hyperbole over inflation. The tight labor market, according to the Federal Reserve, was going to lead to a faster and farther rate trajectory. Sparked by quickening confidence in the short part of [...]

Beware The Collateral Underneath The Top of GDP

By |2018-07-24T18:31:40+00:00July 24th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why so much wholesale emphasis on collateral? Easy. The monetary history of recent times hasn’t been very kind in that regard. On the one hand, the repo market has become so much more important than it was, as scared interbank participants fled unsecured eurodollar markets eleven years ago next month for the presumed shelter of [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2018-07-19T18:59:24+00:00July 19th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Politics|

This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground.  There were, as you'll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the [...]

TIC Confirms Pretty Much Everything

By |2018-07-18T17:39:55+00:00July 18th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Russian ruble has fared far and away much better than its EM peers. Compared to something like the Brazilian real, there is no comparison. The ruble has been relatively steady following an initial drop in April with the imposition of sanctions. April 19 came and went, and while that date is displayed prominently across [...]

Gold, Dollar, and Repo: Who Cares About Taper, or QE?

By |2018-07-17T18:49:40+00:00July 17th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s funny how these things work. He didn’t actually say the word “taper”, at least not when the frenzy first started. The very idea of the “taper tantrum” was the media’s work, the easy slogan that could be used as shorthand for the conventional explanation. The economy was improving, everyone was told and easily believed, [...]

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