Commodities

Eurodollar University Toronto; Hierarchy, Money, and Consequences

By |2018-09-24T11:53:17+00:00September 24th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Eleven years apparently isn't near enough. For the occasion of yet another year passing since August 9, 2007, and nothing much having been done about it, in partnership with MacroVoices I published a second series of Eurodollar University. Whereas Season One focused on the history and buildup of shadow money, where it came from and [...]

Crude Dollar Trade

By |2018-09-05T11:22:46+00:00September 5th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On November 7, 1973, President Richard Nixon addressed the nation via a broadcast television appearance. The topic wasn’t what you might think. Rather than trying to reassure Americans about the unfolding Watergate scandal, Nixon instead attempted to encourage the country about its energy situation. The month before, Egypt and Syria had launched a surprise attack [...]

COT Black: Powell Better Thank Congress While He Can

By |2018-08-28T12:02:04+00:00August 28th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Who can Jerome Powell thank for the PCE Deflator? Not Janet Yellen who handed off to him instead “transitory” factors. Nor was it globally synchronized growth which was supposed to have been the deciding element. Instead, it appears more and more that the only place where Chairman Powell might legitimately offer his gratitude is the [...]

Spreading Spreads (and JPY)

By |2018-08-20T18:56:40+00:00August 20th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What is it that’s different in August? If there was some relative calm in global markets in June and July it certainly disappeared this month. The dollar shot higher and global liquidity indications began sinking again. Yields have fallen on safety (liquidity) instruments more apparently divorced from any other mainstream factors. One place to look [...]

What’s Hot Isn’t Retail Sales Growth

By |2018-08-15T15:58:45+00:00August 15th, 2018|Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Americans are spending more on filling up. A lot more. According the Census Bureau, retail sales at gasoline stations had increased by nearly 20% year-over-year (unadjusted) in both May and June 2018. In the latest figures for July, released today, gasoline station sales were up by more than 21%. The last time they surged this [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]

Collateral Silos And The Deflationary Gold Rush

By |2018-08-15T11:31:01+00:00August 15th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was never really all that much. The best that might have been said was that it was a pause in the building of renewed deflationary pressures. The dollar had “risen” again especially in April and May, but then traded sideways through July. It wasn’t a rebound or even much that was positive, just less [...]

Deflationary Decade(s)

By |2018-08-06T16:44:09+00:00August 6th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’ve seen a lot of commentary lately describe conditions as if things are calmed down. There was a bit of growth scare, a little T-bill indigestion earlier in the year. The Chinese are somehow both stimulating their export sector by devaluing CNY, and also controlling the price of gold while they do it. The contradictory [...]