201605.29
1
0

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

Economic Reports Scorecard The standout reports from the last two weeks are mostly real estate related. The Housing Market Index kicked things off two Mondays ago with a solid reading of 58 (this is a sentiment index with 50 as the dividing line between positive and negative). Homebuilders are not gaga with optimism but this…

201605.27
1
0

Converting Into The (So Far) Broken Correlation

The Chinese exchange rate has traded lower for five consecutive days, and aside from essentially no change last Friday would have been eight in a row. That contrasts with the downward pattern that existed ever since the turn in mid-April where only the general direction was down in not so much a straight line. The…

201605.20
2
0

Chart Of The Week: GSG Outperforms Gold

Back in mid-April the chart of the week asked if commodities had made a bottom. The answer was maybe in that the short and intermediate term had turned positive but the long term monthly chart had yet to trigger a buy signal. That hasn’t changed by the way. If you read my Global Asset Allocation…

201605.13
3
0

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

Economic Reports Scorecard The tone of the economic reports improved over the last two weeks with quite a few releases coming in better than expected. From a scorecard viewpoint, we had 6 reports better than expected versus 8 worse than expected for the reports where a consensus can be tracked and interpreted. (Note: sometimes it…

201605.11
3
1

The Shortest Intuitive Leap

It was an impressive rebound from the doldrums of February 11. Stocks managed to get back nearly even, as the S&P 500 closed above 2,100 on successive days April 19 and 20. Since then it has been more of a struggle; sideways to slightly lower. Gold has remained near and above $1,250 while funding markets…

201605.10
Off
1

Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets are unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60. It was tempting to raise the risk allocation this month and up our allocation to the weak dollar investments we’ve favored for some time. But the only indicator that really improved was credit…

201605.05
1
0

Comprehensive Doubts

The underlying fundamentals of oil and energy remain highly negative. Oil prices have been supported by sentiment for some time now, but that hasn’t changed much from between under $30 to over $40 at the front end. In the latest weekly update from the US EIA, domestic oil production fell rather sharply in the last…

201604.29
Off
0

Chart Of The Week: Silver Miners vs Gold Miners

You’d have to be living under a rock to not know that gold is surging this year. And gold miners are performing even better than the metal itself. In a sign that the rally in precious metals might be getting a little more speculative, silver has started to outperform gold. And silver miners are outpacing…

201604.27
3
0

Focused On The Wrong End of Oil

The front end of the oil price complex continues to get all the attention because it seems to further the more optimistic narrative. It is the back end, however, that is most significant. The nearer maturities of the futures curve reflect more the funding environment than the fundamental view of oil and the economy. The…

201604.24
1
0

A Reader’s Chart Of The Week

One of the things I like about posts like the Chart of the Week is that it gets people to think, share and collaborate. It can be a bit of echo chamber sometimes so we welcome other opinions and feedback about our work. This chart of the week comes from reader Bradley Parkes, former investment…