201508.25
0
0

Broad Domestic Fear Is A Change

I think broad trading today actually confirms yesterday’s hypothesis of the marked appearance of fear. In reversing exactly (or nearly so) almost everything from yesterday, across the board, it seems as if the juxtaposition settles that interpretation. I noted that it wasn’t just gold bid in contrast to the selling and “dollar” frenzy, the Swiss…

201508.24
2
0

Into The ‘Dollar’ Run Now More Than Illiquidity?

We have been talking about a global “dollar” run for the better part of two weeks, and at least a major “dollar” disruption looming going back three months. To say that any of the latest chaos is “unexpected” is intentionally obtuse, but it has already happened. As it is, I think we can expect FRBNY…

201508.23
3
0

The Mysterious Selloff

Why was the stock market down almost 6% last week? I know what you’re thinking – has this guy been under a rock somewhere? But I’m serious. I know what all the pundits, commentators and talking heads are saying about the immediate cause. It’s about the China devaluation and the knock on effect in other…

201508.23
2
0

The Weekly Snapshot

Top News Headlines Stocks succumb to gravity. Industrials join transports in official correction, down over 10%. S&P down almost 8%. Emerging markets enter the bear’s lair, down 25% from recent highs. Oil cracks the $40 barrier – to the downside. Tensions high on the Korean Peninsula. Americans foil terror attack on French train. Kazakhstan devalues…

201508.16
2
0

Who’s Afraid Of The Yuan?

China apparently shocked some people last week by allowing the Yuan to fall 3.5% against the dollar. I don’t know why in the world they would be shocked since we’ve known for months – heck almost a year now – that capital has been leaving China. I wrote about it back in March so it isn’t…

201508.11
Off
0

So Far, Inevitable ‘Dollar’

Everything in dollar-denomination yesterday was lifted by the usual M&A debasement and quite sour data from China. The latter was taken as if there would be renewed “stimulus” in the near term. The “dollar” took a break from its recent destructive nature, as commodities rebounded as did currency proxies and even gold. Stocks in the…

201508.09
Off
0

Rate Cycle & Macro Economic Backdrop – Investment Strategy Implications

US monetary policy is the major driver of the global cost of capital. As a Fed rate cycle approaches, we see the effects of raising required returns across the globe. The increased volatility is a reflection of investors’ changing return requirements, risk assessments and the associated unwinding of leveraged exposure. As we approach the anticipated Fed…

201508.09
3
0

The Correction Gains Momentum

US stocks declined for the seventh straight day on Friday, a dismal streak not seen for almost four years. The S&P 500 is now down 5 of the last 7 weeks although in total it is just 2.5% below the all time high. If you just own the index I suppose that is not much…

201508.08
1
0

The Weekly Snapshot

Top News Headlines Dow falls seven straight days; longest losing streak in four years Bonds up for third week in a row; diversification does work Apple stock in correction territory Republicans hold first debate; Fiorina, Kasich biggest surprises Media stocks clobbered; Disney leads to the downside on ESPN woes Economic News Incomes up modestly, spending…

201508.06
2
0

No ‘Dollar’ Bottom Yet

By most accounts, crude oil prices are still nearing their March lows. That would suggest that this version of “dollar” turmoil might be yet working its way toward levels of disorder previously seen in that last episode. That is misleading, as even crude prices are appreciably more stressed now than they were in March. From…