201601.28
2
0

Fundamental and Finance; Really Downward

Rumors persisted about Iran, Russia or OPEC close to declaring productions cuts, so that has to factor at least into sentiment about oil trading. However, with rumors being denied, the physical universe of crude oil especially in the US has been fundamentally more negative again. Yet, oil prices have reached back to almost $34 (front…

201601.27
8
5

F(r)actions of Gold

The simple fact of the matter is that gold is no longer money and hasn’t been treated that way in decades. It is a frustrating and often woeful outcome, but deference isn’t a reason to color judgement. As an investment, which is more like what gold has become, it isn’t all that straight, either. Gold…

201601.11 2

Reading Curves and Finding Only the Death of Money

When analyzing the full and true nature of the dissonance between the idea of continued recovery and the financial markets’ scenario for something much worse you realize that this is not a new occurrence. In curve after curve, negativity has been building for years. Financial curves are important because they tell us the health of…

201601.11
6
1

PBOC Wastes No Time Proving Desperation

The PBOC wasted no time this week showing that it was serious about its desperation last week. The central bank fixed the CNY reference contrarily upward to 6.583 this morning from Friday’s 6.600. As we have been documenting during this unabated “dollar” problem, whenever the PBOC attempts a contrary maneuver with the fix it typically…

201512.27
1
0

Slim Pickings in 2015

Major Asset Classes with Positive Total Returns US Reits – 2.62% US Large Caps (SP500) – 2.2% Munis (3yr) – 1.16% Emerging Market Bonds – 1.08% US Bonds – 0.76% Cash – 0.02% Unfortunately, 2015 was not a great year for diversified portfolios. Kudos to those who owned Japan, Europe, US Large Cap Growth, Foreign…

201512.21
9
0

Increasingly Durable Correlations

There are a few correlations that I find particularly compelling. The first is Chinese RMB (or CNY) next to WTI crude oil, as both are proxies in their own way of multi-dimensional crosscurrents between global “dollar” finance and real economy function. Since March, that correlation has come into renewed and tight focus. In the past…

201512.20
1
0

The Weekly Snapshot

Top News Headline Stocks end down after wild 700 point range trading. US ends oil export ban. Crickets chirp. Republicans debate, Democrats debate, the nation shudders. Star Wars: The Force Awakens shatters box office records. I visit the mall to Christmas shop, discover the obesity epidemic is not solved, mirrors in short supply. Economic News…

201512.16
1
2

Physical Crude Demand Backs Fed’s IP Estimates, Not Fed’s Economic Outlook

Like industrial production, the condition of oil inventory in the US was updated today in contradiction of the expectations driving Federal Reserve models expecting “transitory” weakness to simply pass into history. Unlike the virtual conditions for the FOMC, crude oil markets are obliged to respect both the eurodollar and the physical realities of physical commodities….

201512.13
1
0

The Weekly Snapshot

Top News Headlines Kinder Morgan, Freeport McMoran, Anglo-American cut dividends Climate deal reached in Paris. Not legally enforceable, all voluntary, no one cares. Dow, Dupont agree to merge, divest and keep Wall Street employed. Junk bond fund halts redemptions. Economic News China loosens Yuan peg to the dollar. Oil hits new lows. Jobless claims hit…