Inevitable adjective incapable of being avoided or evaded I heard that word a lot last week. There is now a fully formed consensus that the US, and indeed the world, now faces an inevitable recession. It can't be avoided. Central banks will have to keep hiking rates because that's the only way to kill inflation. Yes, the inflation is due [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the craziness of the latest "Free Lunch" investment, plus last week's market and the effects of the dollar, credit spreads, and commodities.
TANSTAAFL is an acronym for "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch". It has been around a long time - Rudyard Kipling used it in an essay in 1891 - but it was popularized by Robert Heinlein's 1966 book, "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress". In economics, it most often refers to tradeoffs or opportunity costs; resources are [...]
Are the industrial commodities starting to get a whiff of demand side rejection? Short run trends suggest that this could be the case. From copper to iron and the highest (formerly) of the high flyers, aluminum, this particular group has been exhibiting a rather synchronized setback going back to the end of March, start of April.This despite supply bottlenecks and [...]
Real interest rates have turned positive for the first time in 2 years. Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun describes two big implications for investors. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5fhSGIWC4TA" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Something very important happened last week. No, it had nothing to do with the stock market, at least not directly. There was a lot of volatility in stocks last week but in the end, the S&P 500 was down a mere 21 basis points (0.21%). Yes, growth stocks continued their march toward reality with the NASDAQ 100 down 1.25% but [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun gives his opinion on stagflation, how it's different than it was in the 1970's, last week's negative GDP number, and the importance of sticking to your investment strategy.
Stagflation. It's a word that strikes fear in the hearts of investors, one that evokes memories - for some of us - of bell bottoms, disco, and Jimmy Carter's American malaise. The combination of weak growth and high inflation is the worst of all worlds, one that required a transformational leader and a cigar-chomping central banker to defeat the last [...]
No Place to Hide! Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about the disastrous close to last week's market, its causes, and results.
Well, that was an ugly week. Of the six major assets we track, only one was up last week - REITs. Large and small-cap stocks - down. General commodity indexes - down. Gold - down. Bonds - down. The early part of the week was actually pretty calm but Thursday and Friday - especially that close on the low Friday [...]
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