88.1 Uh Oh! The Eurodollar Has Inverted (Again) ———Ep 88.1 Summary———When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a warning that recession is on the horizon. What about when the Eurodollar Futures yield curve rolls over on its back? Not good news either. Would you believe that there's a kink in the curve now? Would you believe it's not [...]
And just like that, snap of the fingers, it’s gone. Without a “bad” Treasury auction, there was no stopping the bond market today from retracing all of yesterday’s (modest) selloff and then some. This despite the huge CPI estimates released before the prior session’s trading, and now PPI figures that are equally if not more obscene. The BLS reports today [...]
Until last week you hadn't heard much about the bond market rally. I told you we were probably near a rally way back in early April when the 10-year was yielding around 1.7%. And I told you in mid-April that the 10-year yield could fall all the way back to the 1.2 to 1.3% range. The bond rally since April [...]
Six months ago, the US was still reporting 226K new cases of COVID a day, a rate that would peak in the first half of January at over 300k. Daily deaths also peaked in those first two weeks of the new year at over 4000. The economy was still struggling to recover, most restaurants surviving on takeout traffic, and no [...]
84.2 Quantitative Easing: A False God———Ep 84.2 Summary———How is it possible 14 years of data shows the Federal Reserve FLAILING ABOUT trying to raise or lower bond yields with MASSIVE purchases of securities via quantitative easing? Because they were 'massive'. The CENTRAL BANK IS NOT CENTRAL to money. The bond market is. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr [...]
84.1 Fed Reverse Repo Record - Why the Big Deal?!———Ep 84.1 Summary———After the Federal Reserve raised the return on one of its bank programs, a record $756 billion flowed into the central bank’s reverse repo facility. Jerome Powel said, "We're not concerned." He should be. Like the Fed should've been in 2017 when something similar happened. A warning. Again. Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra [...]
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. George Orwell, 1984 I have said many times and believe deeply that our job as investors is not to predict the future but merely to interpret the present as accurately as we can. I've also said and believe deeply that doing [...]
82.3 The Federal Reserve is NOT a Central Bank Pt. 3———Ep 82.3 Summary———Central banks inject liquidity into money markets to PREVENT a crisis. Let us review the last 14 years: Global Financial Crisis I (2008), European Sovereign Debt Crisis (2011), Chinese Reserve Crisis (2015), Global Financial Crisis II (2020). Not too good. Do they know what they're doing? ———See It———– [...]
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be inflationary overheating. Or not? As more time passes and the situation further evolves, the more these recent price deviations conform to the supply shock scenario rather than a truly robust economy showing no signs of slowing down. There are any number of those currently being [...]
82.2 The Federal Reserve is NOT a Central Bank Pt. 2 ———Ep 82.2 Summary——— In March 2020 long-term US Treasury yields shot higher - why? Aren't these safe assets? Did the 'Treasury market break'? No. Yields shot higher due to illiquidity. And liquidity is JOB #1 of a central bank. So... here's looking at you Federal Reserve. ———See It———– Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra [...]
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