201410.24
2
0

Not A Lot of Bets On Stress Tests

We will find out Sunday if all the rumors are correct (and by how much) about a significant portion of European banks either failing or still with their “feet wet” after the usual comedy of the stress tests. You never really know with these types of weighty events, as there are all sorts of biases…

201410.24
1
0

What Magnificent (For Some) Complications

In July 2014, just as the dollar was beginning to tighten with what seems like an overly sensitive trigger, the US Treasury Dept’s Office of Financial Research published a paper by Zoltan Pozsar that attempted to map out the financial system as it actually exists (hat tip to W Kraus for sending it to me)….

201410.23
1
0

Implications of Funding Market Asymmetry

While this morning’s post was more about longer-term implications of “dollar” changes, there are a couple of observations pertinent to the shorter-term that I think need consideration too. For whatever reason, whether it was, like September 4, 2013, an anticipation of countertrend “dovishness” on the part of the FOMC, the eurodollar market gained a sudden…

201410.23
3
0

More Dollar Clarity

There would be a lot more use for the Treasury Dept’s TIC flows and holdings data if it was released closer to real time, but even with that evident staleness about it I think there is a lot of use in how it frames what we see in the dollar and currencies (thus spilling over…

201410.22
1
0

Textbook Demolition

The chatter that continues over Japan’s spiral into (further) economic impoverishment is simply astounding since it is taken as “expert” by the media. A credentialed economist will look at some numbers and simply take them as meaningful, especially if they are the “right” sign in the “right” direction. This is either wholly obtuse or intentionally…

201410.21
2
0

China’s Malaise Is Born In The USA

First, the China Manufacturing “Flash” PMI had “markets” exhaling relief since an increase from 50.2 to 50.5 meant, Manufacturing Rebound Relieves Growth Concerns. A week later, however, that PMI increase disappeared as the final PMI for September came in at an even 50.2 instead – which altered the commentary from “rising” manufacturing to “thankfully” steady…

201410.20
0
0

Back to Sleep

The reason I have been characterizing the ECB’s actions since this summer as “desperate” is entirely due to the fact they are simply redoing things and expecting everyone to simply assume they are acting anew. That may not be entirely the case with their obsession with Eonia (more on that below), but narrowing the corridor…

201410.17
2
0

No Hiding From Credit, European Style

As much as there has been movement and drama in US credit, the same can be said of European credit. That is, of course, no surprise given the vast linkages between the two, but that does not necessarily diminish the European “flavor” of those home “markets.” Most attention is paid to Germany and its bund…

201410.17
1
0

No Hiding From Credit Now

Yesterday, in the wake of some intense credit market drama, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard acknowledged the obvious. Quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Bullard showed just how upside down these “markets” have become. “Inflation expectations are dropping in the U.S., and that is something that a central bank cannot abide,” Mr. Bullard said….

201410.17
1
0

Liquidity Discrepancies Are Not A Particularly Welcome Signal

My colleague Joe Calhoun noted that the Wall Street Journal has documented further anecdotes about the credit market illiquidity this week. Corporate-bond investors have struggled this week to find trading partners for some large orders, causing unusual price drops and raising concerns that trading could freeze in future market turmoil. “Buyers just disappeared” early Thursday…