201503.02
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China Steering Away From or Back Toward Bubbles?

The confusing nature of the PBOC’s actions in the past year or so has led now to publications of theories over a potential power struggle at the central bank. While finally acknowledging that last year was all about “targeted” approaches to monetary “guiding” economic reality, this year is about to explode in personnel changes and…

201503.01
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Currency Wars & Newton’s Third Law

Newton’s Third Law states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Economics is certainly not science so the application of Newton’s law would seem inappropriate for analyzing the global economy, but in today’s world I think it is apt; more growth here means less growth there, a zero sum game of aggregate demand…

201502.25
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Regulations Are Bad Enough, But QE May Have Been So Much Worse

Along with the new Basel-y rules to be adopted for the banking system, there are other major changes that have remapped at least domestic finance since 2007. A big part of this pertains to the systemic liquidity capacity that I emphasize repeatedly, but in the sense that it is far more and different than just…

201502.24
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Next Step In ‘Dollars’?

I continue to believe that the Swiss National Bank’s action on January 15 opened a “release valve” of sorts inside the world of the global “dollar.” Prior to that day, heightened bearishness all throughout dollar-denominated credit dominated trading. That included funding markets, especially eurodollars. The eurodollar curve itself ignored almost everything else, including the FOMC…

201502.24
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This Is All Science, You See

There are any number of colloquialisms for monetary repression, “reach for yield” and serial asset bubbles being a few. In the vernacular of monetary policy itself, such color is disdained in favor of technocratic banality – “portfolio effects.” The idea is simple, which is to say that by repressing the returns on “safe” investments financial…

201502.13
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From Dreaded ‘Deflation’ To ‘Aided’ By It

There has been a lot made of the fact that European GDP wasn’t worse in Q4, especially as Germany rallied to the continent’s economic defense. While initially the reactions were unabashedly positive, I think reality set in more so later after fuller digestion. In other words, everything we thought about Europe before today is still…

201502.11
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The Reality of ‘Flow’

To many, the “strong dollar” will always be an economic condition. If the price of the dollar is rising, then it will be assumed, mostly by economists, to be a relative judgment in favor of domestic growth potential and reality. That view misses the very relevant fact that “dollars” are not necessarily of domestic origin…

201502.10
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The Greek ‘Premium’ Revealed?

I’ve had my suspicions for some time that December saw a(n) (il)liquidity event throughout the “dollar” system. The problem with that supposition is the lack of corroborating price action in riskier markets where you would expect the most impact. That was the pattern revealed by the end of the last event on October 15, where…

201502.09
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First Corporate America, Now China

The amount of inconsistency is certainly consistent when viewing the trouble mainstream analysis has with trying to exclude the possibility of economic forces from explaining why things are the way they are. The latest trade data from China was deafening, too much to pass off as a simple case of a minor blip. Exports in…

201502.06
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Gold Turned Upside Down

After having been subjected to the serious temper of the “dollar” for much of the past few years, with requisite calm periods interspersed, the Brazilian economy is finally reaching the epic inevitability of it all. “Inflation” in January broke out of the “band” set by Banco do Brasil’s policy target to the highest level, in…