201507.31
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July Closes With Same ‘Dollar’ Rampage

The “dollar” has ended the month much the way it started. Despite headlines suggesting the dollar is “down” today, it is very much proving to be disruptive across every proxy. Gold was down to $1,080 at the AM fix before rebounding. Commodities were sold broadly, with copper back near $2.359, down almost $0.02 at some…

201507.19
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Rose Colored Glasses

All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream. Edgar Allan Poe All things are subject to interpretation. Whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power not truth. Friedrich Nietzsche I was walking down the street wearing glasses when the prescription ran out. Steven Wright I think…

201507.05
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Greece Calls Europe’s Bluff

The analysts streaming across my screen last week all had the same opinion – Greece will vote yes, accept Europe’s terms and stay in the Euro. Well, as I write this, the early polls prove, if nothing else, that one should beware of experts bearing consensus opinions. According to the headlines at all the major…

201506.25
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Santa Claus in Sweden

Just a few weeks ago the Swedish central bank, Riksbank, was being lauded for its courage and action in finally embracing QE as the ECB had done. The deflation problem in Sweden had been, so it is asserted, seemingly intractable and thus forcing the monetary hand once more. Riksbank has never been shy about fine-tuning…

201506.23
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Broad ‘Dollar’ Survey Starts To Weigh Negative

There have been, in the past year, two great inflections in wholesale finance. The first was in late June as the “dollar” began to rise, thus signaling a massive shift in balance sheet mechanics, the modern “money supply” that so confuses economists. That is why they at first enthusiastically embraced the “strong dollar” as that…

201506.21
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Don’t Fight The Market

An old Wall Street saying opines that one shouldn’t “fight the Fed” and it is said to be good advice. The popular belief about this saying is that it means one should embrace risk when the Fed is easing because ultimately the goal of the easing (more growth) will be accomplished. When the Fed is tightening…

201506.14
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One More Time: The Economy Is Not The Market

The title is a shorthand way of saying that the most recent performance of the economy isn’t predictive of the future performance of the stock market. The bottom line is that GDP growth today doesn’t necessarily mean stock price growth today – GDP growth and stock returns are not highly correlated. In fact, some analysis…

201506.08
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The Global Downside To Eurodollar Decay

It is exceedingly difficult these days to detect where finance ends and the economy begins. That was intended, of course, as it was believed that greater intrusiveness on the part of the financial ends were consistent with greater, and better, economic control. Certain strains of economics have been obsessed since the dawn of the discipline…

201505.31
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Going Nowhere Fast

It wasn’t a pretty week for stocks globally. Almost every major market was down – one prominent exception was Japan – and the minor ones were down more. China experienced a 6.5% hiccup mid-week that everyone seemed to want to see as, at least, the beginning of the end of that bull market so it…

201505.27
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‘Dollar’ Reversal Gains

Nobody really knows what is going to happen as Greece disproves all the narratives about the ECB’s ability to actually fix anything. As with all things monetarism, the attempts of liquidity were really about time rather than dissuading imbalances. But the funny thing about trying to buy time is that it so often removes the…