China and the Central Bank Exposition

Earlier in the year, China was the primary topic of conversation as its economy teetered upon the precipice of the great unknown, growth less than the “minimum”, while corporate defaults suddenly became somewhat contagious. At the time, monetarists globally were unconcerned despite the outward projection of a high degree of disorder because they “knew” the .. read more

Pity Japan

I have little doubt that the most perverse aspect of orthodox economics is the idea of monetary neutrality. Taken as nothing more than an article of faith, monetary practitioners use the principle as cover to undertake drastic and blunt intrusions into markets and economies, with no guilt over having done so because they can simply .. read more

The Bad News Of Repo Fails Subsiding

With the latest data from FRBNY in hand, the surge in repo fails authorities and certain credit market observers that were stressed over the affair, it is actually confirmation of regularity, and thus a high degree of systemic deficiency. Further, as a real world test, it ends any credibility the reverse repo program had as .. read more

Curves Cannot Invert Now, But They Can Still Speak

Now that Janet Yellen is back in the spotlight trying to convince the world that everything is good and nearly normal, credit markets continue to persist in another frame of reference. The good Chairman might be herself convinced (though I have doubts about what she really thinks) of what she determines as a the “central .. read more

It’s A Big World Out There

Home country bias is the tendency for investors to focus more on their domestic economy and markets. For most of the people reading this the US markets are home and with the Dow breaking 17,000 this past week the US is certainly getting a lot of attention. And it deserves it I guess considering the .. read more

Yellen Looks the Other Way

More of the same from Janet Yellen in her latest speech, but her focus on “resilience” caught my attention as it relates to very recent developments. The taper threat experience last year may have been a warning, but it doesn’t seem like it resonated with her or policymakers. The major bond selloff, which led to .. read more

The Dollar State Remains Altered

As much as overseas markets, particularly emerging, have come roaring back in a lot of places, there is still palpable unease in dollar allocations. That is as much expected as any kind of erosion or dysfunction will take a meandering course of ebbs and flows. But I am a little surprised at how easy the .. read more

Taper: Too Little, Too Late?

For my mind there are two actual explanations for tapering QE, neither of which follows the mainstream idea that the economy has gained sufficient “footing.” That provides the cover by which QE’s taper can be sold while preserving “credibility”, but it does not line up with anything else outside of the straightest line in the .. read more