201508.28
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What The Yen Might Reveal

The moment you add the yen to any larger financial discussion it inevitably brings out passionate response. I think that is derived partially from its status as unbelievably durable; if there is one currency in the world that “deserves”, so to speak, ultimate execution it is that of the Japanese. The Bank of Japan has…

201508.26
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Like 2008 Never Happened

It seems increasingly to dawn on Chinese commentary that there is much more going on than “devaluation.” The latest has drawn in the Chinese hoard of UST assets, as it is clear that China is “selling” them though there is great confusion as to why or even what that actually means. The world of forex…

201508.25
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Broad Domestic Fear Is A Change

I think broad trading today actually confirms yesterday’s hypothesis of the marked appearance of fear. In reversing exactly (or nearly so) almost everything from yesterday, across the board, it seems as if the juxtaposition settles that interpretation. I noted that it wasn’t just gold bid in contrast to the selling and “dollar” frenzy, the Swiss…

201508.25
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Having To Do ‘It’ Again Is All You Need To Know

I know there is tendency for shorthand in media, especially print, but there comes a time when bland or rote description is not just inappropriate but highly misleading. Obviously, all attention is focused on the PBOC not just in turmoil but in how the central bank responds. To say that frustration is brewing is a…

201508.24
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Into The ‘Dollar’ Run Now More Than Illiquidity?

We have been talking about a global “dollar” run for the better part of two weeks, and at least a major “dollar” disruption looming going back three months. To say that any of the latest chaos is “unexpected” is intentionally obtuse, but it has already happened. As it is, I think we can expect FRBNY…

201508.23
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The Mysterious Selloff

Why was the stock market down almost 6% last week? I know what you’re thinking – has this guy been under a rock somewhere? But I’m serious. I know what all the pundits, commentators and talking heads are saying about the immediate cause. It’s about the China devaluation and the knock on effect in other…

201508.21
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The Second Wave

Three-month LIBOR has just this month risen by a little more than 3 bps. That sounds like nothing more than a rounding error, beyond trivial, but considering it had only risen 3 bps prior going back to March the comparison of acceleration is what clearly matters. Up until August, the upward variability in LIBOR had…

201508.20
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History Repeats; China as Japan

It was another very heavy intervention in yuan last night for the PBOC, making that twice in just one week. The activity is so fierce as to be of similar proportions to the very tight Chinese New Year period, meaning that it is an understatement to say that the PBOC is under great strain. What…

201508.16
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Who’s Afraid Of The Yuan?

China apparently shocked some people last week by allowing the Yuan to fall 3.5% against the dollar. I don’t know why in the world they would be shocked since we’ve known for months – heck almost a year now – that capital has been leaving China. I wrote about it back in March so it isn’t…

201508.14
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The ‘Dollar’ Run Hits The Corporate Bubble

By the behavior of the Chinese yuan itself, given the financial size here, we can readily assume that any “dollar” problem that is clearly causing the PBOC’s actions are sizable. Currencies throughout Asia are being roiled not unlike 1997 and oil prices sunk to a new “recovery” low. While that all suggests far away turmoil…