Currencies

Fed: We Are, Don’t Get Spooked, Very Happy With Things But We Are Going to Review Our Policies And Tools In the Very Small, Microscopic Chance We’ve Missed Something

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2019-03-08T18:03:55-05:00March 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last August, the Senate confirmed Richard Clarida for both a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as well as to be installed as its Vice Chairman. Clarida had been chairman of the Economics department at Columbia as well as working for PIMCO where he had served the investment company as its Global Strategic Advisor since 2006. You can [...]

The Big Minus Wasn’t Actually China’s Big Contraction In Exports

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2019-03-08T15:58:39-05:00March 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

More important than the US GDP number, more substantial than the February jobs report, what will linger for longer in the public consciousness is China’s trade data. It seems as if the big drop in exports has garnered the most immediate attention, I suspect that won’t be the case moving forward. There are more important trends being captured where the [...]

Payrolls: Neither Good Nor Bad, Just More Uncertain

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2019-03-08T12:27:07-05:00March 8th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS giveth, and the BLS taketh away. That’s not really what has happened, of course, but for many it can seem that way. February’s payroll report obviously stands in striking contrast to January’s. The latter was a blowout, over +311k (revised), hyped near and far as proof of decoupling, the US economy the only clean shirt. In comes the [...]

Not Buying The New Stimulus

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2019-03-07T17:49:38-05:00March 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What just happened in Europe? The short answer is T-LTRO. The ECB is getting back to being “accommodative” again. This isn’t what was supposed to be happening at this point in time. Quite the contrary, Europe’s central bank had been expecting to end all its programs and begin normalizing interest rates. The reaction to this new round was immediately negative: [...]

Broken Record

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2019-03-06T15:59:22-05:00March 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The OECD has become the latest mainstream Economist outfit to relent on growth. Two years ago, they had grown cautiously optimistic as reflation appeared in the back half of 2016. By the middle of 2017, positively giddy barely able to contain their increasingly rabid excitement: The global economy is now growing at its fastest pace since 2010, with the upturn [...]

The Deeper Red of The (False) Dawn

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2019-03-06T11:52:29-05:00March 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The concept of an economic “false dawn” was almost entirely unfamiliar to the postwar US experience. We came close in 2002 and the first half of 2003, but eventually the housing bubble era took over. The dot-com recession was mild, sure enough, somehow, though, recovery seemed so elusive for a longer period than the contraction itself. There is supposed to [...]

The Real Reason Why Stop/Go Is Back To Stop Again

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2019-03-05T18:31:57-05:00March 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

These things have typically started in global trade. This makes sense given what we are dealing with are intermittent problems in global money. Quite simply, you can’t trade if you can’t get any. Therefore, the more acute the dollar shortage the more disruptive to the global merchandise economy. The one exception to this pattern was the first. Euro$ #1 registered [...]

China Has No Choice

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2019-03-05T12:51:57-05:00March 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s central bank was given more independence to conduct monetary policies in late 2003. It had been operating under Order No. 46 of the President of the People’s Republic of China issued in March 1995, which led the 3rd Session of the Eighth National People’s Congress (China’s de facto legislature) to create and adopt the Law of the People's Republic [...]

No Building Left To Build A Boom

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2019-03-04T18:26:44-05:00March 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the last several years, the US recovery following its experience with the global 2015-16 downturn has been lacking in several key dimensions. Reflation #3 in the real economy has reflected the lack of momentum and altitude in the snapback across the eurodollar system. As such, of all the reflation episodes this last one was upside down; it was by [...]

The Real Price of Inflation Targeting

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2019-03-04T16:40:38-05:00March 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While still a professor of Economics at Princeton, future Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was also a Research Associate for the NBER. In 1999, in his capacities with the latter organization, Bernanke advocated for widespread adoption of inflation targeting. At that time, only a few central banks had experimented with it and there wasn’t much evidence for its effectiveness. Publishing [...]

Stay In Touch

Contact