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Currencies

Unsentimental About Fast-Fading Sentiment

By |2021-09-07T19:58:20-04:00September 7th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

By the summer of 2018, there were already any number of economic warning signs over globally synchronized growth fading fast. Many if not most of them market-based, of course, but not all. In the realm of sentiment, for example, the Germans in particular had put their finger on the pulse of the global economy and found it suspiciously feeble, economic [...]

What’s Real Behind Commodities

By |2021-09-07T18:08:01-04:00September 7th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation is sustained monetary debasement – money printing, if you prefer – that wrecks consumer prices. It is the other of the evil monetary diseases, the one which is far more visible therefore visceral to the consumers pounded by spiraling costs of bare living. Yet, it is the lesser evil by comparison to deflation which insidiously destroys the labor market [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Windshield Investing

By |2021-09-07T07:01:12-04:00September 6th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The economic slowdown we've been writing about for months officially arrived last Friday in the form of a particularly weak employment report. The number of new jobs created last month - or at least the WAG the BLS makes at such things on a monthly basis - was a mere 235,000 or roughly a cool half-million less than expected by [...]

Just In Time For Labor Day: It’s Not Payrolls Missing The Mark By Such A Wide Margin

By |2021-09-03T18:02:37-04:00September 3rd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a highly curious change in the shape of the labor force. Beginning October 2015 and lasting until March 2016, for six months Americans came flooding back into the labor market. Or, so they said. When the BLS’s various surveyors working on the Current Population Survey (known as the Household Survey) came calling for answers each month, all of [...]

China, Australia, and The European Way Into Reverse Repo

By |2021-09-01T20:19:50-04:00September 1st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We are going to start here with Europe before heading to Australia and then getting to China – and then currency. Why the ECB? It is going through the same pangs of dissatisfaction as its cousin the Federal Reserve had last summer. Like the Fed in 2020, Europe’s central bank in 2021 has climbed to the end of its grand [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 97: No Tapering *Our* Tantrum

By |2021-09-01T17:35:36-04:00September 1st, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

97.0 Taper (but no) Tantrum! Why not? ———Ep 97.0 Summary———Jay Powell announced his central bank is satisfied (enough) with the economy's direction. Thus, the Fed will soon be 'tapering'; lessening the 'monetary stimulus'. What did bond-money markets say? Did they have a tantrum? No, because they don't believe what Jay believes. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep [...]

Yes And No Taper To Labor (and inflation)

By |2021-09-01T17:37:08-04:00September 1st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It doesn’t really make much sense, does it? If you stop and think about it for more than a quick second, this notion of a labor shortage doesn’t get past the smell test. The economy overall is, we hear, booming. Really booming. And it’s booming in a way that has the labor market healing far faster than thought not long [...]

Not Black Mouth To Bad Mouth The Global Causes of Transitory Inflation

By |2021-08-31T19:32:38-04:00August 31st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Apparently, analysts were shocked when the Conference Board reported earlier today that its measure of consumer confidence, its own bread and butter, in the name, after all, dropped by a rather substantial eleven-plus points in August. And that was on top of a four-point downward revision to July. The new level of 113.8 compares to average expectations for ~124.0. Therefore, [...]

From The Blackest of Mouths: China’s (deflationary) Slowdown Picks (way) Up

By |2021-08-31T17:29:21-04:00August 31st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At great risk of upsetting China’s army of censors, I’m going to “slander” the Chinese economy anyway. Were I a comrade within that particular nation, I’d now get labeled a “black mouth” spreading misinformation in the form of actual up-to-date data published by the same Communist government fearing its spread. Rate of change in the economy goes down, rate of [...]

Finally, QuEstioning ‘Easy Money’

By |2021-08-30T19:51:03-04:00August 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A fascinating and useful bit of economic research was put forward just last month by Britain’s House of Lords (and thanks to Greg for digging it up). That body’s Economic Affairs Committee heard detailed testimony on the subject of Quantitative Easing, commonly known as QE. From the title of the report prepared in advance of the witnesses presenting their opinions [...]

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