Housing Contradictions

In contrast to existing home sales there has been no real bounce in new home sales. Again, that more than contradicts the idea of a home shortage (or at least a true market shortage, there may be a shortage when only factoring monetary targets) and further explains why builders are reluctant to close the purported .. read more

Depth in Home Sales

Existing home sales re-attained the 5 million SAAR level again in June, but that remains well behind last year’s trajectory. In other words, the bounce in sales after the most recent trough is not nearly as robust as predicted when it was simply assumed that the housing market would just revert back to 2013’s trend. .. read more

Adjusted Home Construction Falls But ‘Significance’ Unclear

On a seasonally-adjusted basis residential home construction was beyond ugly.  There were widespread declines in June from May’s levels that more than suggest a lack of weather bounce (not unlike a lot of other indications).  However, there is more than a little caution with housing data as it remains one of the most “noisy” series .. read more

On July 17th, 2014, posted in: Economy, Markets, Real Estate by

Yellen Looks the Other Way

More of the same from Janet Yellen in her latest speech, but her focus on “resilience” caught my attention as it relates to very recent developments. The taper threat experience last year may have been a warning, but it doesn’t seem like it resonated with her or policymakers. The major bond selloff, which led to .. read more

The Source and Scourge of Inequality

If there had been an actual recovery delivered as it was intended, promised and offered, the idea of inequality would be an afterthought in an otherwise prosperous age. Inequality, however defined, is a necessary feature of a dynamic economic system. We want inequality because that defines opportunity. A healthy economic system produces disparities due to .. read more

New Home Sales Much Better Monthly; Context Still Ugly

Now that home sales have bounced off the winter lows, we can analyze the real estate market outside of the excuses and distractions. There is no question that May’s sales rate was far better than January or February, but once again that is an amazingly low standard of comparison. In fact, May 2014’s SAAR is .. read more

If Two Basis Points Can Do This, Imagine What Four Might Do

In addition to continued retrenchment in housing construction (and likely sales as we will see next week) mortgage applications absolutely plunged again this week. According to the latest estimates from the Mortgage Bankers Association, their application index fell 9.2% from the prior week. That’s a pretty large drop reminiscent of the worst financial days last .. read more

Home Construction Not Buying Supply Explanation

When home sales rose M/M (slightly) in April for the first time in 2014, the NAR theorized it as the turnaround signal. Their reasoning for it was strange in the context of basic, intuitive economics (meaning non-textbook). Rising prices on too few available homes for sale was supposed to signal more construction, as this shortage .. read more