201704.23
1
0

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

It wasn’t a very good two weeks for economic data with the majority of reports disappointing. Most notable I think is that the so called “soft data” is starting to reflect reality rather than some fantasy land where President Trump enacts his entire agenda in the first 100 days of being in office. Politics is…

201701.10
1
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

Market based expectations for growth and inflation have moderated slightly since the last update. Since mid-December, interest rates – nominal and real – have fallen back, the yield curve has flattened, the dollar index has pulled back from its highs and gold has moved off its lows. In short, the Trump trade is being partially reversed…

201612.02
Off
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

Markets have moved sharply over the last month, mostly in the post-election period. Stocks are up – small caps exuberantly so – the dollar is up, bonds and gold are down. Surprisingly though, our indicators did not move all that much. The direction of change in the indicators is consistent with the moves in assets…

201610.31
1
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

As with last month, I delayed this update a few days to see if we might gain some clarity that would warrant some change in our allocation. Alas, no such clarity has emerged and so, as it has been since August, the risk budget remains unchanged this month. Indeed, as last month, the entire portfolio…

201609.25
6
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

I’ve put off this update as long as I can now, waiting for some clarity, a change in our indicators that might suggest a change to the portfolio. Alas, despite a Fed meeting, a BOJ meeting and a plethora of economic data nothing has moved sufficiently to warrant a change. The risk budget is unchanged…

201608.16
Off
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budget is unchanged this month although the composition of the portfolio does change. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds, risk assets and cash remains at 50/45/5. There are changes to the allocation but the overall risk budget stays the same. Credit spreads did continue to narrow this month but other…

201606.13
Off
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets are unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60. I struggled more with this decision than any in recent memory but in the end there just isn’t sufficient evidence to make a change. Raising or lowering the allocation to risk assets…

201605.10
Off
1

Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets are unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60. It was tempting to raise the risk allocation this month and up our allocation to the weak dollar investments we’ve favored for some time. But the only indicator that really improved was credit…

201604.08
Off
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets are again unchanged for this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60. The changes in our indicators this month were not significant enough to warrant a change. Credit spreads stopped narrowing and have recently been widening again, ever so slightly. Valuations, long term…

201603.11
Off
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets this month are again unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. The changes in our indicators since last month’s update have not been sufficient to warrant a change. Credit spreads did narrow significantly over the last month but…