201604.08
Off
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets are again unchanged for this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60. The changes in our indicators this month were not significant enough to warrant a change. Credit spreads stopped narrowing and have recently been widening again, ever so slightly. Valuations, long term…

201603.11
Off
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets this month are again unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. The changes in our indicators since last month’s update have not been sufficient to warrant a change. Credit spreads did narrow significantly over the last month but…

201512.27
1
0

Slim Pickings in 2015

Major Asset Classes with Positive Total Returns US Reits – 2.62% US Large Caps (SP500) – 2.2% Munis (3yr) – 1.16% Emerging Market Bonds – 1.08% US Bonds – 0.76% Cash – 0.02% Unfortunately, 2015 was not a great year for diversified portfolios. Kudos to those who owned Japan, Europe, US Large Cap Growth, Foreign…

201512.12
Off
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. However, we are watching credit spreads very carefully because the BofA ML US High Yield Master II OAS is approaching 7.5%. That is a level that…

201508.09
Off
0

Rate Cycle & Macro Economic Backdrop – Investment Strategy Implications

US monetary policy is the major driver of the global cost of capital. As a Fed rate cycle approaches, we see the effects of raising required returns across the globe. The increased volatility is a reflection of investors’¬†changing return requirements, risk assessments and the associated unwinding of leveraged exposure. As we approach the anticipated Fed…

201506.07
1
0

No Place To Hide

It was a nasty week for investors with almost no place – or at least no logical place – to hide. Of the 16 broad market ETFs I monitor on a daily basis, only one, was higher on the week – IWM, the Russell 2000 small cap ETF. That’s what I mean by no logical…

201412.21
Off
0

Questions For 2015

Well, it’s that time of year again, when all the pundits offer their crystal ball views of the coming new year. I don’t usually participate in the prediction game and this year won’t be any different. Like everyone else I wonder what the future holds but I know I have no special ability to predict…

201411.30
Off
0

Slip Slidin’ Away

Slip Slidin’ Away Slip Slidin’ Away You Know The Nearer Your Destination The More You’re Slip Slidin’ Away Paul Simon Well, now things are starting to get interesting. Contrary to most expectations, OPEC decided last week to maintain – or more accurately, continue ignoring – their current production target. OPEC members haven’t been sticking to…

201411.16
7
0

Bubble Behavior?

I really hate the term bubble. With regard to markets, frankly it has no meaning. One man’s bubble is another man’s rational bull market. There is no agreed upon valuation metric which, once exceeded, pegs a market or a sector or a stock as a bubble. My view on the matter is that “bubbles’ are…

201409.28
2
0

Shoeshine Boys & Thinking At The Margin

It is said that Joe Kennedy got out of the stock market in 1929 because he started to hear stock tips from his shoeshine boy. Bernard Baruch had similar feelings: When beggars and shoeshine boys, barbers and beauticians can tell you how to get rich it is time to remind yourself that there is no…