201410.31
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‘Dollar’ Tight Again, Though Maybe Wrong Fed Read

It began more than a week before the FOMC meeting, as eurodollars again anticipated what the mood would be surrounding whatever the FOMC might say. “Dollar” conditions had run down significantly where the entire curve shifted lower (looser) for the first two weeks of October as doubts grew about the economy in the US and…

201410.31
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Stimulus

Under the headling, Kuroda Surprises With Stimulus Boost as Japan Struggles, is the following summation: Today’s decision comes almost 19 months after Kuroda unleashed his initial asset-purchase plan, with the intention of doubling the monetary base. That move similarly drove up stocks and undercut the yen. Since then, a more competitive exchange rate has triggered…

201410.31
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QQE Is Clearly Destroying Japan, So BoJ Panics Into More

The precursor event of every hyperinflationary episode is not as conventional wisdom currently holds. Certainly there are conditions that are present in each and every one, including desperate fiscal imbalances that ultimately become expressed in growing monetarism, but the true cause that turns those troubling circumstances to total and complete wipeout and disaster is tunnel…

201410.26
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A Market That Satisfies No One

Stocks rebounded in spectacular fashion last week, the angst of the last few weeks apparently forgotten as quickly as a central banker can float a trial balloon. First there was the Bullard bounce that moved us off the lows when things were looking their grimmest and then last week we got a rumor about the…

201410.24
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What Magnificent (For Some) Complications

In July 2014, just as the dollar was beginning to tighten with what seems like an overly sensitive trigger, the US Treasury Dept’s Office of Financial Research published a paper by Zoltan Pozsar that attempted to map out the financial system as it actually exists (hat tip to W Kraus for sending it to me)….

201410.23
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Implications of Funding Market Asymmetry

While this morning’s post was more about longer-term implications of “dollar” changes, there are a couple of observations pertinent to the shorter-term that I think need consideration too. For whatever reason, whether it was, like September 4, 2013, an anticipation of countertrend “dovishness” on the part of the FOMC, the eurodollar market gained a sudden…

201410.23
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More Dollar Clarity

There would be a lot more use for the Treasury Dept’s TIC flows and holdings data if it was released closer to real time, but even with that evident staleness about it I think there is a lot of use in how it frames what we see in the dollar and currencies (thus spilling over…

201410.20
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Back to Sleep

The reason I have been characterizing the ECB’s actions since this summer as “desperate” is entirely due to the fact they are simply redoing things and expecting everyone to simply assume they are acting anew. That may not be entirely the case with their obsession with Eonia (more on that below), but narrowing the corridor…

201410.20
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Maybe IBM Should’ve Bought The Whole ‘Cloud’ Rather Than Itself

IBM blames the cloud for its dismal results, but the fact is that IBM should own the cloud outright (figuratively, of course). If the business has changed so much in the past few years due to customer shifting, then why wasn’t IBM leading that process? Why are they now actually admitting what amounts to a…

201410.19
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Was That It?

Stocks fell last week for the fourth week in a row and there was the whiff of panic mid-week. Despite that losing streak the S&P 500 is only 6% from its all time high but the pain for the leveraged investing crowd (the misnamed “hedge” funds) appeared to hit a crescendo last week – at…