201702.21
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2

Discounting, Or Never Learning?

The hedge fund industry is not quite dead yet, meaning that it can still cause a great deal of disruption before it expires. It is here where things like rehypothecation and the bastardization of prime brokerage functions were perfected, such that we might use that term in this manner. Despite so much outward attention paid…

201702.21
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3

The Market Is Not The Economy, But Earnings Are (Closer)

My colleague Joe Calhoun likes to remind me that markets and fundamentals only sound like they should be related, an observation that is a correct one on so many different levels. Stock prices, in general, and GDP growth may seem to warrant some kind of expected correlation, but it has proven quite tenuous at times…

201702.15
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data since my last update has improved somewhat. It isn’t across the board and it isn’t huge but it must be acknowledged. As usual though there are positives and negatives, just with a slight emphasis on positive right now. Interestingly, the bond market has not responded to these slightly more…

201702.12
5
0

Global Asset Allocation Update

There hasn’t been a lot of change in our indicators since the last update and therefore, despite my discomfort with the altitude of this stock market, there are no changes to the Global Asset Allocation this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50.  Bond markets…

201701.25
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

Economic Reports Scorecard Well it’s time to get back in the habit of doing this every two weeks. The schedule was interrupted over the holidays and then again by my annual outlook piece.  The economic data released over the last two weeks was not particularly inspiring, not that hard data is what has been egging…

201701.10
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Global Asset Allocation Update

Market based expectations for growth and inflation have moderated slightly since the last update. Since mid-December, interest rates – nominal and real – have fallen back, the yield curve has flattened, the dollar index has pulled back from its highs and gold has moved off its lows. In short, the Trump trade is being partially reversed…

201612.12
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There Were Always These Complications; We Just Can’t Ignore Them Anymore

One of the biggest challenges facing central banks in this increasingly post-myth environment is that they have to deal with the consequences of those past myths. Not all that long ago, it was widely believed that a central bank just did what it wanted to do, and that was the end of all discussion. If…

201612.11
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Trump Catches A Tailwind

Economic Reports Scorecard The incoming economic data has improved since the last update with a plethora of reports coming in better than expected. This is the longest run of better than expected data we’ve had in some time and encompasses a wide variety of indicators. Most surprising I think is that we are seeing a…

201612.02
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Global Asset Allocation Update

Markets have moved sharply over the last month, mostly in the post-election period. Stocks are up – small caps exuberantly so – the dollar is up, bonds and gold are down. Surprisingly though, our indicators did not move all that much. The direction of change in the indicators is consistent with the moves in assets…

201611.21 2

Haven’t We Done This Before?

It is an apparent contradiction to where we can describe a desperate money supply situation yet stock prices, in particular, are at all-time highs or at least outwardly unconcerned about all of it. This isn’t anything new, however, as noted last week where we may be witnessing the third or fourth iteration of the same…