201702.12
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Global Asset Allocation Update

There hasn’t been a lot of change in our indicators since the last update and therefore, despite my discomfort with the altitude of this stock market, there are no changes to the Global Asset Allocation this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50.  Bond markets…

201610.31
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Global Asset Allocation Update

As with last month, I delayed this update a few days to see if we might gain some clarity that would warrant some change in our allocation. Alas, no such clarity has emerged and so, as it has been since August, the risk budget remains unchanged this month. Indeed, as last month, the entire portfolio…

201609.25
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Global Asset Allocation Update

I’ve put off this update as long as I can now, waiting for some clarity, a change in our indicators that might suggest a change to the portfolio. Alas, despite a Fed meeting, a BOJ meeting and a plethora of economic data nothing has moved sufficiently to warrant a change. The risk budget is unchanged…

201608.16
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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budget is unchanged this month although the composition of the portfolio does change. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds, risk assets and cash remains at 50/45/5. There are changes to the allocation but the overall risk budget stays the same. Credit spreads did continue to narrow this month but other…

201605.10
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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets are unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60. It was tempting to raise the risk allocation this month and up our allocation to the weak dollar investments we’ve favored for some time. But the only indicator that really improved was credit…

201604.08
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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budgets are again unchanged for this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60. The changes in our indicators this month were not significant enough to warrant a change. Credit spreads stopped narrowing and have recently been widening again, ever so slightly. Valuations, long term…

201512.20
1
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The Weekly Snapshot

Top News Headline Stocks end down after wild 700 point range trading. US ends oil export ban. Crickets chirp. Republicans debate, Democrats debate, the nation shudders. Star Wars: The Force Awakens shatters box office records. I visit the mall to Christmas shop, discover the obesity epidemic is not solved, mirrors in short supply. Economic News…

201512.13
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The Weekly Snapshot

Top News Headlines Kinder Morgan, Freeport McMoran, Anglo-American cut dividends Climate deal reached in Paris. Not legally enforceable, all voluntary, no one cares. Dow, Dupont agree to merge, divest and keep Wall Street employed. Junk bond fund halts redemptions. Economic News China loosens Yuan peg to the dollar. Oil hits new lows. Jobless claims hit…

201512.12
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Global Asset Allocation Update

The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. However, we are watching credit spreads very carefully because the BofA ML US High Yield Master II OAS is approaching 7.5%. That is a level that…

201511.27
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The Weekly Snapshot

Top News Headlines Turkey and Russia spar over airspace. Russian promises retaliation for fighter shoot down. Brussels shuts down for days in terrorist hunt. Chicago policeman charged with murder. Stocks little changed on the week, no follow through from last week’s rally. Pfizer, Allergan agree to merge for tax benefits, politicians posture, threaten. Economic News…