201311.24
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Tactical Update

In today’s environment, our focus is on finding good companies and unique investing opportunities. We added one such company to the portfolio this week. The company has enviable revenue growth, strong operating margins, great returns on capital, growing cash flows and a P/E 20% below the broader market. The company also happens to have a…

201306.09
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Tactical Update

As we’ve been reporting, the economic data has been showing weak performance.  But, the market hasn’t seemed to mind.  QE is in high gear.  It is supporting asset prices as the over-leveraged sectors of the economy heal themselves.  The banking and household sector received bailouts and a slow healing process puts them in a better…

201305.27
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Tactical Update

The Nikkei moved down over 7% in one day this week.  The S&P put out a potentially bearish technical sign, A Key Reversal.  The market experienced flash crashes toward the end of the week. Despite the out-sized monetary support, there is still plenty to find concerning. Global Opportunities: Rebalance the small Vix hedge.   We have recently added…

201305.12
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Tactical Update

One of the top story lines of the past 6 months has been the BOJ, Abenomics, and the dramatic repricing of the Yen.  To date, we are looking at about a 25% drop in the value of the Yen.  This is a transparent initiative to double the monetary base over the course of 2 years and…

201304.21
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Tactical Update

Here is a list of things that concern us. Fed incentivized risk seeking  A recent surge in risk asset prices Continued global rebalancing Continued global deleveraging Bail-ins as much or more than bail-outs Continued excess leverage in the banking sector Technical indicators rolling over and flashing orange Tired fiscal houses Tired fundamentals Experimental Monetary Policy…

201304.14
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Tactical Update

This “recovery” is in its 4th year.  Unfortunately, we have yet to see robust growth in employment or incomes.  The recovery continues to be about low interest rates and abundant liquidity.  Cheap debt capital benefits equity owners.  Whether real or nominal, as revenues grow and the cost of capital becomes cheaper, the benefits flow to…

201304.07
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Tactical Update

The great thing about leverage is that, while it works, it is very profitable and it feels really good.  The bad thing about leverage is that, when it doesn’t work, it can bankrupt you quickly and it feels very bad. This boom/bust scenario manifested itself in the housing market.  I’m fairly convinced that, given the…

201303.29
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Tactical Update

The 21st century, global, economic saga continues to provide plenty of nuance.  The past few weeks, we’ve been introduced to a few new characters, Cyprus and Russia.  There is a bit of a rogue element with Russia.  Regardless, the same common themes are present for analysis: leverage, speculation, global capital imbalances and the accompanying political,…

201303.13
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Strategic Rebalancing

Strategic accounts were rebalanced back to their target weights on Tuesday.  The result was a purchasing of bonds and commodities and sale of equities and reits.  As always please call with any questions or concerns. Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners’ money management services and global…

201302.04
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Tactical Update

Here are a few good lessons.  Perhaps describing his oracle, from Warren Buffett in 1979, “The future is never clear,” and “You pay a very high price for a cheery consensus.”  And from Frank Napolitano, the irascible head of the firm who bank rolled my trading career in 1996..”Dougie, always remember…Cash is King!” If you’ve been…