Tactical Update
As reported last week, we added some companies from our watch list. The expectation is that these buys will eventually be offset with sales of companies which we don’t feel offer the upside potential. The market did not start the week strong. It headed south and tested the 50 day technical line again; support did .. read more
Tactical Update
As we’ve been reporting, the economic data has been showing weak performance. But, the market hasn’t seemed to mind. QE is in high gear. It is supporting asset prices as the over-leveraged sectors of the economy heal themselves. The banking and household sector received bailouts and a slow healing process puts them in a better .. read more
Tactical Update
The Nikkei moved down over 7% in one day this week. The S&P put out a potentially bearish technical sign, A Key Reversal. The market experienced flash crashes toward the end of the week. Despite the out-sized monetary support, there is still plenty to find concerning. Global Opportunities: Rebalance the small Vix hedge. We have recently added .. read more
Tactical Update
One of the top story lines of the past 6 months has been the BOJ, Abenomics, and the dramatic repricing of the Yen. To date, we are looking at about a 25% drop in the value of the Yen. This is a transparent initiative to double the monetary base over the course of 2 years and .. read more
Tactical Update
Here is a list of things that concern us. Fed incentivized risk seeking A recent surge in risk asset prices Continued global rebalancing Continued global deleveraging Bail-ins as much or more than bail-outs Continued excess leverage in the banking sector Technical indicators rolling over and flashing orange Tired fiscal houses Tired fundamentals Experimental Monetary Policy .. read more
Tactical Update
This “recovery” is in its 4th year. Unfortunately, we have yet to see robust growth in employment or incomes. The recovery continues to be about low interest rates and abundant liquidity. Cheap debt capital benefits equity owners. Whether real or nominal, as revenues grow and the cost of capital becomes cheaper, the benefits flow to .. read more
Tactical Update
The great thing about leverage is that, while it works, it is very profitable and it feels really good. The bad thing about leverage is that, when it doesn’t work, it can bankrupt you quickly and it feels very bad. This boom/bust scenario manifested itself in the housing market. I’m fairly convinced that, given the .. read more
Tactical Update
The 21st century, global, economic saga continues to provide plenty of nuance. The past few weeks, we’ve been introduced to a few new characters, Cyprus and Russia. There is a bit of a rogue element with Russia. Regardless, the same common themes are present for analysis: leverage, speculation, global capital imbalances and the accompanying political, .. read more
