Tactical Update
One of the top story lines of the past 6 months has been the BOJ, Abenomics, and the dramatic repricing of the Yen. To date, we are looking at about a 25% drop in the value of the Yen. This is a transparent initiative to double the monetary base over the course of 2 years and .. read more
Tactical Update
Here is a list of things that concern us. Fed incentivized risk seeking A recent surge in risk asset prices Continued global rebalancing Continued global deleveraging Bail-ins as much or more than bail-outs Continued excess leverage in the banking sector Technical indicators rolling over and flashing orange Tired fiscal houses Tired fundamentals Experimental Monetary Policy .. read more
Tactical Update
This “recovery” is in its 4th year. Unfortunately, we have yet to see robust growth in employment or incomes. The recovery continues to be about low interest rates and abundant liquidity. Cheap debt capital benefits equity owners. Whether real or nominal, as revenues grow and the cost of capital becomes cheaper, the benefits flow to .. read more
Tactical Update
The great thing about leverage is that, while it works, it is very profitable and it feels really good. The bad thing about leverage is that, when it doesn’t work, it can bankrupt you quickly and it feels very bad. This boom/bust scenario manifested itself in the housing market. I’m fairly convinced that, given the .. read more
Tactical Update
The 21st century, global, economic saga continues to provide plenty of nuance. The past few weeks, we’ve been introduced to a few new characters, Cyprus and Russia. There is a bit of a rogue element with Russia. Regardless, the same common themes are present for analysis: leverage, speculation, global capital imbalances and the accompanying political, .. read more
What’s up with Apple Q1, FY13
What has the street so spooked? The earnings report didn’t look too bad, at least on the surface. Sales and earnings both topped estimates. But there may appear to be issues, operating income shrunk from the same quarter last year and net income was up a minuscule .11% . This is despite an Q1/Q1 annualized 18% rise .. read more
Aflac Earnings, Q4 FY’12
Aflac’s earnings this week beat consensus estimates by a penny, $1.48 v 1.47, which equates to 2.1% growth . The commentary centered around positive operating execution, small write-offs in the investment portfolio and on-going challenges with global currencies. My sense is that the stock has reacted negatively to CEO comments which reiterated guidance but cautioned .. read more
Tactical Update
Here are a few good lessons. Perhaps describing his oracle, from Warren Buffett in 1979, “The future is never clear,” and ”You pay a very high price for a cheery consensus.” And from Frank Napolitano, the irascible head of the firm who bank rolled my trading career in 1996..”Dougie, always remember…Cash is King!” If you’ve been .. read more
