Tactical Update
One of the top story lines of the past 6 months has been the BOJ, Abenomics, and the dramatic repricing of the Yen. To date, we are looking at about a 25% drop in the value of the Yen. This is a transparent initiative to double the monetary base over the course of 2 years and .. read more
Tactical Update
Here is a list of things that concern us. Fed incentivized risk seeking A recent surge in risk asset prices Continued global rebalancing Continued global deleveraging Bail-ins as much or more than bail-outs Continued excess leverage in the banking sector Technical indicators rolling over and flashing orange Tired fiscal houses Tired fundamentals Experimental Monetary Policy .. read more
Tactical Update
The 21st century, global, economic saga continues to provide plenty of nuance. The past few weeks, we’ve been introduced to a few new characters, Cyprus and Russia. There is a bit of a rogue element with Russia. Regardless, the same common themes are present for analysis: leverage, speculation, global capital imbalances and the accompanying political, .. read more
Tactical Update
Here are a few good lessons. Perhaps describing his oracle, from Warren Buffett in 1979, “The future is never clear,” and ”You pay a very high price for a cheery consensus.” And from Frank Napolitano, the irascible head of the firm who bank rolled my trading career in 1996..”Dougie, always remember…Cash is King!” If you’ve been .. read more
Tactical Portfolios Update
The Tactical Portfolios range from ETF-based trend-following models to all-stock or all-bond model portfolios that are actively managed. While we tend to use the same asset classes as are found in our Strategic Portfolios, the allocation to each asset class is adjusted using a top-down approach based on our economic outlook, as well as fundamental and technical analysis. The .. read more
Portfolio Changes
We made several changes to our portfolios today. This was not in response to the fiscal cliff situation. We believe that fiscal policy will continue to be a contentious issue throughout at least the first quarter. Any deal reached today or this week will only be a band aid that allows the two parties to .. read more
