201403.30
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Tactical Update

Sell EZU: Buy HEDJ We have added a currency hedge to our European exposure. Dollar funding costs are rising. Eurodollars for December 2016 fell 25 basis points in one day after the March Fed meeting. Europe relies on Russia for energy. Economic sanctions against Russia would hurt Europe. The price of North Sea oil rose 2%…

201306.09
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Tactical Update

As we’ve been reporting, the economic data has been showing weak performance.  But, the market hasn’t seemed to mind.  QE is in high gear.  It is supporting asset prices as the over-leveraged sectors of the economy heal themselves.  The banking and household sector received bailouts and a slow healing process puts them in a better…

201305.27
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Tactical Update

The Nikkei moved down over 7% in one day this week.  The S&P put out a potentially bearish technical sign, A Key Reversal.  The market experienced flash crashes toward the end of the week. Despite the out-sized monetary support, there is still plenty to find concerning. Global Opportunities: Rebalance the small Vix hedge.   We have recently added…

201304.21
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Tactical Update

Here is a list of things that concern us. Fed incentivized risk seeking  A recent surge in risk asset prices Continued global rebalancing Continued global deleveraging Bail-ins as much or more than bail-outs Continued excess leverage in the banking sector Technical indicators rolling over and flashing orange Tired fiscal houses Tired fundamentals Experimental Monetary Policy…

201303.29
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Tactical Update

The 21st century, global, economic saga continues to provide plenty of nuance.  The past few weeks, we’ve been introduced to a few new characters, Cyprus and Russia.  There is a bit of a rogue element with Russia.  Regardless, the same common themes are present for analysis: leverage, speculation, global capital imbalances and the accompanying political,…

201302.04
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Tactical Update

Here are a few good lessons.  Perhaps describing his oracle, from Warren Buffett in 1979, “The future is never clear,” and “You pay a very high price for a cheery consensus.”  And from Frank Napolitano, the irascible head of the firm who bank rolled my trading career in 1996..”Dougie, always remember…Cash is King!” If you’ve been…

201301.09
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Tactical Portfolios Update

The Tactical Portfolios range from ETF-based trend-following models to all-stock or all-bond model portfolios that are actively managed. While we tend to use the same asset classes as are found in our Strategic Portfolios, the allocation to each asset class is adjusted using a top-down approach based on our economic outlook, as well as fundamental and technical analysis. The…